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宏观深度报告:2025重振消费之路(四)
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-13 13:59
Group 1: Service Industry and Consumption Dynamics - In 2023, China's final consumption rate was 56.8%, which is 10.5 percentage points lower than that of middle-income countries and 19.2 percentage points lower than high-income countries[7] - Service industry output primarily flows into the consumption sector, with 78.5% of service industry final use being consumption, compared to only 36.2% for the industrial sector[12] - Urban residents' consumption accounts for 35.5%, rural residents 8.4%, and government consumption 34.6% of final use, highlighting the significant role of both resident and government consumption[15] Group 2: Potential Directions for Service Industry Development - The healthcare and social security sector in China accounted for only 2.6% of GDP in 2022, significantly lower than the sample region average of 7.2%[38] - The accommodation and catering industry represented 1.8% of GDP in 2024, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the sample region average[38] - Cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors accounted for just 0.7% of GDP in 2022, compared to the sample region average of 2.5%[38] Group 3: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - For healthcare and elderly care services, macro policies should support the construction and operation of elderly care institutions through fiscal subsidies and loans, while also providing direct elderly care subsidies to low-income seniors[2] - In the cultural and tourism sector, the government should increase investment in cultural infrastructure and explore mechanisms like cultural consumption vouchers to stimulate demand[2] - In the accommodation and catering sectors, policies should focus on reducing tax burdens for individual operators and providing direct consumption subsidies to stimulate market demand[2] Group 4: Employment and Income Impact - The service industry accounted for 62.4% of non-agricultural employment in 2023, surpassing its 60.5% share of non-agricultural GDP[27] - The value added in the service industry flows more towards labor compensation, with 52.9% of service industry value added going to labor, compared to 34.8% in the industrial sector[23] - Each 1% increase in service industry employment leads to a 1.15% increase in manufacturing employment, indicating a strong multiplier effect[29]