报告导读： 本月制造业 PMI 边际回落，供需指数季节性下滑，主因"史上最长春节假 期"的扰动。价格指数暂稳，接下来需关注输入性通胀的影响。在服务业，景气平稳，结构 分化。此外，建筑业活跃度还需政策呵护。 2026 年 2 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为 48.2% ，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为 49.7% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 非制造业景气度：服务平稳，建筑低位。 在服务业， 2 月商务活动指数略微回升，但结构分化明显。一方面，居民出行消费相关行业业务总量增长较快。住 宿、餐饮、文化体育娱乐等行业活跃度偏高，零售、航空运输等行业商务活动指数升至高位。另一 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 经济"开门红"仍较温和 2026 年 2 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 逆周期政策传导速度不及预期的风险；其他国家贸易政策具有不确定性的风险；地 缘冲突频发对大宗商品价格的影响超预期。 图 1：春节是 PMI 进一步回落的主要原因，实际表现并不弱 （%） 数据来源：同花顺，东方证券研究所 数据来源：同花顺，东方证券研究所 48 48.5 49 49.5 50 50.5 51 图 3：中小型型企业 PMI 压力明显更大（%） 图 4：建筑业 PMI 进一步回落（%） 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 2024/9 2024/10 2024/11 2024/12 2025/1 2025/2 2025/3 2025/4 2025/5 2025/6 2025/7 2025/8 2025/9 2025/10 2025/11 2025/12 2026/1 2026/2 大型企业 中型企业 小型企业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 05 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@or ...

2026 年 03 月 05 日 宏观研究团队 春节效应拖累 PMI，复工略快于往年 ——兼评 2 月 PMI 数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 制造业：春节效应下 PMI 延续偏弱 1、受春节假期等因素影响，制造业景气度延续偏弱运行。2 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%、环比下行了 0.3 个百分点，弱于季节性规律，供需分项均下行。分行业 来看，农副食品加工、计算机通信电子设备等行业的产需指数保持扩张，纺织 服装服饰、汽车等行业相对承压。 2、工业原材料价格环比回落，预计 2 月 PPI 同比延续回升。2 月 PMI 原材料购 进价格为 54.8%，较前值下降了 1.3 个百分点，PMI 出厂价格为 50.6%，持平于 前值。从高频指标来看，预计 2 月 PPI 环比可能在 0.3%左右，同比为-1.0%左右。 3、分类型来看，大型企业景气向好但中小型走弱。2 月大型、中型、小型企业 PMI 分别较前值变动了+1.2、-1.2、-2.6 个百分点。表征民企景气度 ...

虽然本月原材料价格指数有所回落，出厂价格指数也未进一步上行，但事实上二者均落在扩张区间，这在生产惨淡的 春节月份已算是相对强势的表现。近期地缘冲突快速推升油价，而油价是导致通胀的重要因素，2 月 PPI 有望加快修 复至-0.6%左右。乐观场景下 PPI 同比最快在 3 月就有回正可能。即使在中性、或悲观场景下，由于 2-3 月基数的推 高，PPI 同比回正的时间也被提前至 5-6 月。 假期间非制造业表现分化。受春节假日效应带动，居民出行消费相关行业景气度较高，建筑业则受员工集中返乡，部 分建筑项目暂停施工等因素影响，商务活动指数进一步回落，但节后复工表现相对积极。根据百年建筑调研数据，截 至 2 月 25 日(农历正月初九)，全国 10692 个工地开复工率为 8.9%，农历同比增加 1.5 个百分点；劳务上工率 15.5%， 农历同比增加 3.7 个百分点；资金到位率 29%，农历同比增加 9.4 个百分点。总体来看，节后第一周全国工地开复工 率较去年农历同期略有增加。 作为十五五开局之年，一季度的经济表现目前来看存在一定压力：1 月存在上年底冲刺经济目标的透支效应，2 月又 因春节长假制约制造业景气度 ...

3 月 4 日，2 月 PMI 数据公布，结合前期已经公布的 EPMI、BCI 等经济软指标，我们简要点评如下： ⚫ 2 月制造业 PMI 大致吻合季节性。2 月是制造业淡季，历史上春节部分相近年份的 2 月制造业景气度以环比下 行为主，今年叠加长假影响，环比下行 0.3 个点基本符合预期。 据万得数据（下同），2 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0，低于前值的 49.3。 在前期报告《2 月 EPMI 数据带来哪些增量信息》中，我们指出：预计 2 月制造业 PMI 面临继续放缓的压力。 2 月制造业 PMI 季节性特征以环比下行为主，2015、2018、2021 和 2024 年 2 月环比变动分别为+0.1pct、-1.0 pct、-0.7 pct、-0.1 pct。 ⚫ BCI 数据环比也有所回踩，但因为其兼容环同比，所以中枢相对更积极一些，1 月和 2 月绝对值均处于 2025 年 4 月以来的高点，即 2026 年初经济同比意义上有小幅高开特征。在周度报告中，我们估算 1-2 月累计实际同比 增速为 4.86%。 [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 证券研究报告 [ ...

3月4日，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会联合发布2月份中国采购经理指数。受春节假 期等季节性因素影响，当月制造业PMI回落至49.0%，非制造业商务活动指数微升至49.5%。 数据显示，制造业短期景气有所放缓，但经济运行中的积极因素持续积累：高技术制造业PMI连续13个月位于 扩张区间，新动能稳中有增；服务业受节日消费拉动明显回升，企业预期相对稳定，业务活动预期指数仍在 55%的较高水平。 季节性因素拖累制造业PMI 2月份，制造业PMI为49.0%，景气水平较上月下降。制造业景气度下降体现在生产和需求两端：生产指数、新 订单指数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指数、产成品库存指数、采购量指数、进口指数、购进价格指数有所下 降，指数降幅在0.1至2.8个百分点之间。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，从历史数据看，春节所在月份的PMI大多会出现一些波 动，尤其今年春节假期有所延长且全部落在2月中下旬，企业生产经营受到一定影响，制造业市场活跃度总体 有所下降。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，2月份，制造业新订单指数为48.6%，较上月下降0.6个百分点，显示制造 业市场需求整体收紧，原因 ...

业界人士分析，金税四期系统于去年全面落地，迈入"大数据查税"时代。去年10月1日起，按照《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》要求，平台 企业首次向税务部门报送平台内经营者和从业人员的涉税信息。2025年A股成交额创高、股票市场活跃，带来股息红利、股权转让等资本性所得 增加。这类收入在中国个税中也要缴税，从而拉高了个税总收入。 2025年其他主要税收收入项目如下：企业所得税41304亿元，增长1%；国内增值税68947亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费税16857亿元，增长2%；进口 货物增值税、消费税18263亿元，下降4.8%。关税2369亿元，下降3.1%。出口退税21337亿元，增长10.7%。印花税4270亿元，增长24.1%，其中， 证券交易印花税2035亿元，增长57.8%。 为进一步刺激2026年消费，2025年底，财政部等部门启动了有奖发票活动，支持50个地市级及以上城市开展试点，覆盖与居民"衣食住行"密切相 关的日常消费场景 文｜《财经》记者 邹碧颖 编辑｜王延春 2025年，个人所得税16187亿元，增长11.5%，值得注意的是，大幅高于经济增速。专家分析，基数效应一定程度上放大了个人所得税增速。 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 21.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in China remained stable, with tax revenue steadily rebounding and key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1][2] - Tax revenue grew by 0.8% in 2025, reflecting a steady upward trend in the economy, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% due to a high base from 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Major tax categories such as value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.4%, 2%, 1%, and 11.5% respectively, accounting for about 81% of total tax revenue [2] - The growth in consumption tax was primarily driven by increases in cigarette and refined oil taxes, while corporate income tax growth was supported by the manufacturing sector [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 203.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.8%, indicating a strong correlation with market activity [2][3] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure increased by 1%, with social security and employment, technology, education, and health spending rising by 6.7%, 4.8%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, together accounting for about 42% of total expenditure [3] - Fiscal funds showed a clear trend of investing in human capital, with over 30 million infants receiving childcare subsidies [3] - In 2025, the total expenditure on special bonds and other financial instruments reached 6.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6%, enhancing economic development momentum [3][4]

Group 1 - In 2025, total fiscal revenue is projected to be stable, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue, which is expected to reach 203.5 billion yuan, a growth of 57.8% [1] - The general public budget revenue for 2025 is estimated at 21.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024, while tax revenue is expected to grow by 0.8%, indicating a steady recovery in the economy [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and modern services are showing strong tax revenue performance, with significant growth in sectors like computer and communication equipment manufacturing (13.5%), electrical machinery (8%), scientific research and technical services (14.3%), and cultural and sports entertainment (7.5%) [1] Group 2 - The total general public budget expenditure for 2025 is projected at 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% from 2024, with social security and employment expenditures rising by 6.7% and education expenditures by 3.2% [2] - Government fund budget revenue is expected to be 5.77 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7% from 2024, while government fund budget expenditure is projected to be 11.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3%, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [2] - The total expenditure from special bonds and other financial instruments is expected to reach 61.9 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6% from 2024, aimed at enhancing economic development momentum [2] Group 3 - The "zero tariff" policy in Hainan Free Trade Port has significantly boosted imports, with the value of imported goods under this policy reaching 857 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 243% [3] - The number of new foreign-funded enterprises in Hainan has increased by 23.56%, indicating a growing interest in investment in the region [3] - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached 6.28 billion yuan, with shopping participation increasing significantly, reflecting a 35.9% growth in sales and a 21% increase in the number of shoppers [3]

Group 1 - In 2025, total fiscal revenue is projected to be stable, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue, which is expected to reach 203.5 billion yuan, a growth of 57.8% [1] - The general public budget revenue for 2025 is estimated at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024, with tax revenue showing a modest growth of 0.8% [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and modern services are expected to perform well in terms of tax revenue, with specific sectors like computer communication equipment manufacturing seeing a 13.5% increase [1] Group 2 - Total general public budget expenditure for 2025 is projected at 28.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% from 2024, with significant increases in social security and employment spending by 6.7% [2] - Government fund budget revenue is expected to decline by 7% to 5.77 trillion yuan, while expenditure is set to rise by 11.3% to 11.29 trillion yuan, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [2] - The total expenditure from various bond funds in 2025 is projected to be 61.9 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6% from 2024, aimed at enhancing economic development momentum [2] Group 3 - The "zero tariff" policy in Hainan Free Trade Port has significantly boosted imports, with the value of imported goods under this policy reaching 857 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 243% [3] - The number of new foreign-funded enterprises in Hainan has increased by 23.56%, indicating a growing interest in investment in the region [3] - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached 6.28 billion yuan, with shopping participation increasing significantly, reflecting a 35.9% growth in sales [3]