2025.08. 23 本文字数：2557，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 中国在十多年探索增值税留抵退税的道路上，作出了一次重大政策调整，整体上对退税更加谨慎。 8月22日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于完善增值税期末留抵退税政策的公告》（下称《公告》）， 决定自今年9月增值税纳税申报期起，对相关行业采取新的增值税留抵退税政策。税务总局同日出台 《公告》配套文件明确具体征管事项。 此前中国对于留抵税额并没有采取退还处理方式，而是让企业将这一留抵税额结转下期继续抵扣，此 举增加了企业资金压力。为了缓解企业资金压力，支持企业研发创新，中国自2011年开始对集成电 路等特定行业试点留抵退税，2019年迈出一大步，即开始试行增值税增量期末留抵税额退税制度， 退还比例为60%。新冠疫情冲击之下，为了进一步缓解企业资金压力，在此前政策基础上，2022年 扩大了按月全额退还增值税留抵税额的行业范围，更关键的是允许一次性退还企业的存量留抵税额， 此举使得2022年留抵退税金额飙升至2.46万亿元，超过2021年办理留抵退税规模的3.8倍，是疫情 期间国家给企业纾困的重要一招。 近些年来受经济下行等影响，财政收入 ...

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the first half of the year [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest this year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly reduced by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half, contributing to the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The securities transaction stamp tax saw a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7%, with 2.89 trillion yuan spent in the first seven months [4] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]

全国狭义财政收入由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部披露今年前7个月财政收支情况。1~7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增 长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过降幅逐步缩窄，随着7月份收入增幅（2.6%）创下 年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 财政部数据显示，今年前7个月全国非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。这一增幅明显低于去年同期数 据（12%）。 除了一般公共预算收入外，以地方卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入也是广义财政收入重要的组成部分。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主要 指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 税收收入方面，今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。其中7 月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 对于税收增速与经济增速 ...

2025.08. 19 本文字数：1810，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 全国狭义财政收入增速由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部公布今年前7个月财政收支情况。1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同 比增长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过，降幅逐步缩窄。随着7月份这一收入增幅 （2.6%）创下年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正，折射了经济运行 总体平稳。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主 要指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，其中又以税收为主，税收也被称为"经济晴雨 表"。 根据财政部数据， 今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。 其中7月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and significant achievements in high-quality development [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8.4% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [2] - Specific products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles experienced production increases of 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% year-on-year [3] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0%, with a business activity expectation index of 56.6%, indicating positive sentiment in sectors like railway transport, air transport, and cultural entertainment [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan in July, marking a 3.7% year-on-year increase, although it saw a slight month-on-month decline of 0.14% [5] - Sales of essential and some upgraded consumer goods showed strong growth, with categories like food, daily necessities, and sports goods retailing up by 8.6%, 8.2%, and 13.7% respectively [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2%, with physical goods online retailing at 70,790 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first seven months was 288,229 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth, with a 5.3% increase when excluding real estate development [7] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, contrasting with a 12.0% decline in real estate development investment [8] Trade Performance - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a 6.7% year-on-year increase, with exports at 23,077 billion yuan (up 8.0%) and imports at 16,026 billion yuan (up 4.8%) [10] - For the first seven months, the total trade value was 256,969 billion yuan, with exports growing by 7.3% and imports declining by 1.6% [10] Employment and Prices - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to July, with July's rate also at 5.2%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [13] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8%, with the increase slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [14]

Group 1: Service Industry and Consumption Dynamics - In 2023, China's final consumption rate was 56.8%, which is 10.5 percentage points lower than that of middle-income countries and 19.2 percentage points lower than high-income countries[7] - Service industry output primarily flows into the consumption sector, with 78.5% of service industry final use being consumption, compared to only 36.2% for the industrial sector[12] - Urban residents' consumption accounts for 35.5%, rural residents 8.4%, and government consumption 34.6% of final use, highlighting the significant role of both resident and government consumption[15] Group 2: Potential Directions for Service Industry Development - The healthcare and social security sector in China accounted for only 2.6% of GDP in 2022, significantly lower than the sample region average of 7.2%[38] - The accommodation and catering industry represented 1.8% of GDP in 2024, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the sample region average[38] - Cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors accounted for just 0.7% of GDP in 2022, compared to the sample region average of 2.5%[38] Group 3: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - For healthcare and elderly care services, macro policies should support the construction and operation of elderly care institutions through fiscal subsidies and loans, while also providing direct elderly care subsidies to low-income seniors[2] - In the cultural and tourism sector, the government should increase investment in cultural infrastructure and explore mechanisms like cultural consumption vouchers to stimulate demand[2] - In the accommodation and catering sectors, policies should focus on reducing tax burdens for individual operators and providing direct consumption subsidies to stimulate market demand[2] Group 4: Employment and Income Impact - The service industry accounted for 62.4% of non-agricultural employment in 2023, surpassing its 60.5% share of non-agricultural GDP[27] - The value added in the service industry flows more towards labor compensation, with 52.9% of service industry value added going to labor, compared to 34.8% in the industrial sector[23] - Each 1% increase in service industry employment leads to a 1.15% increase in manufacturing employment, indicating a strong multiplier effect[29]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - The production index was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [3][5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [5] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, and the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [5] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand, particularly in the construction sector, which saw a new orders index of 42.7% [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index for July was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in business activities [7] Group 4: Service Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's service trade totaled 38,872.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, with exports at 16,883 billion yuan, up 15.0%, and imports at 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2% [4][9] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 15,025.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, with significant contributions from other business services and telecommunications [9] - Travel services experienced the fastest growth, reaching 10,802.9 billion yuan, up 12.3%, with exports growing by 68.7% [9]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month[5] - Service industry business activity index at 50.1%, a decrease from 50.5%[5] - New export orders PMI at 47.1%, down from 47.7% last month, indicating continued pressure on exports[5] High-Tech Industry Performance - High-tech industry PMI at 50.6%, slightly down from 50.9%, remaining above the threshold[5] - Production and new orders PMI for high-tech sectors at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing resilience compared to traditional industries[5] - Confidence in high-tech sectors bolstered by "anti-involution" policies, leading to increased expectations for production activities, with PMI rising to 52.6%[5] Market Dynamics - "Anti-involution" policies have positively impacted prices in high-tech industries, with significant increases in factory and raw material purchase price indices[5] - Service sector maintained above the threshold, driven by summer holiday effects, with indices for related sectors like rail and air transport exceeding 60.0%[5] - The ongoing economic transition emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as export momentum weakens post-Geneva negotiations[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3][4] - The production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3][4] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Indicators - The new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand for manufacturing [4] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material inventories [4] - The employment index was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight improvement in employment conditions within the manufacturing sector [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [7] - The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [9] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [11] Group 4: Price and Employment Trends in Non-Manufacturing - The input price index was 50.3%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating an overall increase in input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [11] - The sales price index was 47.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in overall sales prices [11] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions [11] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [15]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]