Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the supply-demand contradictions in the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector, analyzing changes in both supply and demand sides and their implications for future economic trends [1][2]. Group 1: Supply-Demand Contradiction Changes - A 2x2 analytical framework is constructed to examine the supply side (upstream and midstream manufacturing) and the corresponding demand (infrastructure and real estate for upstream; equipment purchase, electromechanical exports, and durable goods consumption for midstream) [4][12]. - In 2024, the investment growth rate in equipment manufacturing decreased from 9% to 4.8% in the first seven months, while the combined demand growth rate increased from 9% to 10.7% during the same period [5][6]. - Upstream investment growth has rapidly declined, with a notable drop in real estate and infrastructure investments, which saw a faster decline in July [6][17]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - The midstream sector shows two positive changes: demand growth remains high, with electromechanical exports growing at 8.1%, equipment purchase at 15.2%, and durable goods consumption at 9.0%, leading to a combined growth rate of 10.7% [5][14]. - Supply-side investment growth in the midstream sector has started to decline, with equipment manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.8% from 6.3% [5][14]. Group 3: Upstream Manufacturing - The upstream sector presents a mixed picture: while investment growth has rapidly declined, with raw material investment growth at -0.1%, demand from real estate and infrastructure remains weak, with infrastructure investment growth at 3.2% and real estate investment at -12% [6][17]. - Historical observations from 2013-2017 indicate that upstream supply typically declines before demand recovers, suggesting that current upstream price recovery may depend on future demand increases [2][18]. Group 4: July Economic Data Overview - In July, industrial production growth was 5.7%, while service sector production index growth was 5.8%, indicating a strong supply side [20][22]. - Consumer demand and investment growth have declined, with retail sales growth at 3.7% and fixed asset investment growth at -5.3% [20][41]. - Real estate sales area decreased by 7.8% in July, and fixed asset investment growth has shown a significant decline across various sectors [27][41]. Group 5: Employment and Consumer Trends - The urban survey unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, reflecting a seasonal increase [23]. - Retail sales growth has shown resilience in lower-tier categories, with limited impact from fixed asset investment declines on middle and low-income groups [24][25].