黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-25 产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾仍存，纯碱偏弱运行 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 风险 玻璃方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，沙河地区工厂出货较好，华东市场交投一般，华 中市场价格暂稳，华南市场除个别企业针对个别基地存满量优惠外，多数价格暂稳，东北市场价格暂时稳定。昨 日浮法玻璃现货价格1269元/吨，环比上一交易日持平。供需与逻辑：本轮偏弱的地产数据压制了玻璃反弹高度， 但即将步入玻璃传统消费旺季，关注后续是否能形成阶段性的消费回升和库存的持续去化，目前处于近月资金博 弈阶段，谨慎对待当前的价格。 纯碱方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，国内纯碱市场走势弱，价格阴跌，窄幅调整，企 业库存去库幅度放缓，逐步转向累库。最新纯碱开工率83.83%，装置开工正常，暂无波动。供需与逻辑：需求端 来看，浮法玻璃受地产数据影响，表现薄弱。随着春季检修结束，纯碱库存有进一步增加压力，长期来看，纯碱 供需仍偏宽松。 策略 硅锰方面：：昨日锰硅期货节后开市震荡调整，单日增仓41065。假期结束开市第一天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sector shows strong performance, with significant gains in metals, chemicals, and oil and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The mining ETF (561330) increased by 2.93%, while the gold stock ETF (517400) rose by 2.62%, and the chemical ETF (516220) gained 2.20% [2] - The coal sector is also performing well, with news that the Trump administration plans to direct the Pentagon to purchase coal, potentially revitalizing the coal industry [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns about cryptocurrencies impacting liquidity in the cyclical sector have been alleviated, as precious metals like silver remain stable, suggesting limited risk of a secondary shock to the non-ferrous sector [1] - Long-term support for the non-ferrous sector is expected from factors such as resource nationalism and supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the only coal ETF (515220) due to short-term catalysts and long-term valuation support from a weakening dollar credit [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass is showing a strong upward trend with supply - side disturbances, while soda ash is in a weak downward trend. For the double - silicon products, the market sentiment is cautious, and the alloys are fluctuating [1][3] - The overall strategy is that glass and silicon products are in a fluctuating state, while soda ash is in a weak fluctuating state [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong upward trend yesterday, and the spot market prices remained stable with good sales by manufacturers [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market showed a weak downward trend yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. Although some production lines have been gradually shut down for maintenance, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of glass production line shutdowns [1] - Soda ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has rebounded. Considering the future new production projects of soda ash and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, it is necessary to suppress the production profits of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Fluctuating [2] - Soda ash: Weakly fluctuating [2] 3.2 Double - Silicon Products (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated yesterday. Before the festival, steel mills' inventory replenishment has gradually ended, and mainstream steel mills have not launched a new round of tenders. The prices are relatively firm. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market fluctuated yesterday. The spot market transactions were average, and downstream inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved. There is an expected increase in molten iron production in the future, and the demand for silicon manganese will improve marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. Recently, the South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, which may increase the cost of manganese ore in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of silicon iron and the power price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The current supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, with little inventory pressure, which supports prices to some extent. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward drive, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment changes [4] Group 3 Market Performance - Coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, rising for two consecutive days, and opened and closed higher at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions implemented the first round of coking price increases, while the coking coal market prices were generally weak and stable [3] Driving Factors - India declared coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As a country with continuous growth in the steel industry and high dependence on coking coal imports, it is expected to remain a key driver of global coking coal demand. News about real - estate policies stimulated the stock market's real - estate sector, and the continuous rise of precious and non - ferrous metal prices created a positive atmosphere for the strength of black - series futures [3] Fundamental Situation - Near the Spring Festival, coal production decreased slightly this week due to safety inspections and other factors, with raw coal and clean coal production at 1.978 million tons and 771,000 tons respectively. It is expected that coal mines will start to have holidays on February 5, with an average of 10.1 days, similar to last year. The planned production cuts involve about 744 million tons of production capacity, affecting 18.68 million tons of raw coal output. The expected reduction in coal supply supports coal prices, but the production cuts are in line with past years' patterns, and downstream industries have stocked up in advance [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has weakened, and prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash continue to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also in a state of oscillatory operation with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [1][3] - The strategies for glass and silicomanganese are to expect an oscillatory trend, and for soda ash, it is an oscillatory and weakening trend, while for silicon - iron, it is also an oscillatory trend [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass 2605 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and some manufacturers slightly raised prices with a fair trading atmosphere. The soda ash 2605 contract mainly oscillated, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass fundamentals are still weak. With the Spring Festival approaching, production line cold - repairs continue, and there are still expectations of production suspension. Recently, shipments have improved, and inventory pressure on the supply side has eased. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday. For soda ash, 1719 warehouse receipts were recorded yesterday. As the delivery month approaches, a sharp increase in single - day warehouse receipts suppresses prices. The latest data shows an increase in inventory, weak demand, and deepening supply - demand contradictions. Considering the warehouse - receipt game in the delivery month, soda ash prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese main contract showed a weakening trend during the day with a large increase in positions. The alloy cost has fair support, with the 6517 northern market price ranging from 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. An eastern steel mill set the silicomanganese tender price at 5830 yuan/ton today, with a tender quantity of 4000 tons. The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate weakly yesterday, the ferrosilicon market had a slight adjustment, and the market sentiment was rather flat. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5750 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities being put into operation, so the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, the demand for silicomanganese is expected to improve. The recent South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, and it may increase the manganese ore cost in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes. For ferrosilicon, the fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and winter stockpiling, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to decline further next year and the overall ferrosilicon production capacity is in surplus, the price increase is restricted. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of ferrosilicon and the electricity price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]

文 | 中国金融网(CFN) 大河 2026年1月26日，国际贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻：伦敦黄金现货最高触及5111.17美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货峰值达5107.9美元/盎司，双双突破5100美元/ 盎司关键关口。然而，暴涨背后是极致震荡——现货黄金日内冲高2.5%后大幅回落，尾盘跌破5000美元/盎司，收涨仅0.26%；现货白银波动更为剧烈，日内 涨幅一度高达14%至117美元/盎司，最终转跌报102.8美元/盎司。这场"狂欢式震荡"不仅凸显贵金属市场的狂热情绪，更释放出多重风险升级信号，为投资者 敲响警钟。 关口告破：贵金属市场的极端行情演绎 金银价格走势分化显著，白银弹性远超黄金。今年以来银价涨幅已超50%，大幅跑赢金价17%的年内涨幅，核心源于供需矛盾与资金推动的双重叠加，但其 波动幅度也数倍于黄金，日内从暴涨14%到尾盘转跌，凸显高位投机资金的快进快出。 波动率拉满：多重因素交织下的市场博弈 贵金属高位波动率飙升，本质是短期避险情绪、中期供需格局与长期货币逻辑交织博弈的结果，而资金面的极致涌入进一步放大了波动弹性。 短期核心驱动源于避险买盘的脉冲式涌入。当前全球地缘政治与金融风险交织，美国对伊 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector first declined and then rose, showing overall weak performance. In terms of index fluctuations, the strength order of varieties was coke > hot-rolled coil > rebar > coking coal > iron ore. In the entire futures market, non-ferrous metals remained strong, chemicals strengthened collectively, while the black sector showed mediocre performance [4]. - Macro policy: Global uncertainty has intensified as the US imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran. Domestically, a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced. Industry pattern: Last week, steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. However, the absolute inventory is currently low. On the raw material side, downstream enterprises replenished their stocks before the festival, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first declined and then rose last week, showing overall weak performance [4][6]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Non-ferrous metals remained strong, and chemicals strengthened. The black sector showed mediocre performance [4][8]. 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and iron ore had the largest decline [10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. Rebar futures prices were slightly higher than the valley electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat electricity cost, with a low static valuation [5][13]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. Currently, the absolute inventory is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [4][5][15]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore output remained stable. Steel mills started to replenish their stocks before the festival, and the inventory at steel mills and ports both increased. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, but based on previous shipment data, recent arrivals are still at a high level. It is expected to remain in an inventory accumulation pattern in the short term, with the support being the large discount of iron ore futures [5][24]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal output increased, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. Although coking plants started to replenish their stocks before the festival, mines had difficulty in destocking and still had a slight inventory increase [5][27]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke output remained flat, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Currently, the profit of coking plants is low. Recently, some coking plants proposed the first round of price increases, but coke futures have a premium over the spot [5][29]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar-iron ore ratio increased, and the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread widened [31]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. - A package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 billion yuan in loans for private investment in small and medium-sized enterprises. - Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories", aiming to gradually expand zero-carbon factory construction to industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles by 2030, exploring new paths for carbon reduction in traditional high-energy-consuming industries. - In 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. - On January 23 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new round of sanctions on multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems, targeting the shipping and management network assisting Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports. - On January 21, Trump posted on social media that he had formulated a framework for an agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, so he would not implement the tariff increase measures on 8 European countries originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, hitting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. - The global bond market has experienced large-scale selling, and concerns about fiscal spending, new tariff threats, and doubts about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries have jointly triggered market volatility [38].

Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with strong performance in precious metals and energy chemicals, while the black series experienced a general pullback [2] - In the energy chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 4.01% and crude oil increased by 0.79%. In contrast, the black series saw coking coal decline by 1.07% and iron ore drop by 2.21% [2] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with Shanghai gold up by 6.10% and Shanghai silver up by 8.39% [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - On January 23, international silver prices surpassed $100 per ounce, marking a historical high with an annual increase of over 44%. The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical factors [3] - Silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, with ongoing supply shortages exacerbated by tightening export controls and low inventory levels [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in gold and silver are primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and market liquidity expectations rather than solely by safe-haven demand [4][5] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Trends - On January 23, overseas platinum futures prices exceeded $2,600 per ounce, while palladium prices approached $2,000 per ounce, with platinum futures rising by 10.39% [6] - The platinum market has faced supply shortages for three consecutive years, with a projected supply gap of 69,200 ounces by 2025, leading to low inventory levels [6] - The demand for platinum is expected to be bolstered by the accelerating hydrogen energy industry, while palladium faces long-term pressure due to its reliance on internal combustion engine vehicles [7] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the stability and seriousness of benchmark applications [8][9] - The guidelines emphasize the need for internal controls and management by fund managers, as well as external oversight by custodians and sales institutions [8][9] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose over 3% due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased U.S. sanctions, with Brent crude and NYMEX crude closing at $65.44 and $61.29 per barrel, respectively [11] - Analysts note that while the oil market currently faces an oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties provide a support base for prices, leading to potential short-term price spikes [11]

Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a downward trend this week, closing at 1064 CNY/ton, a decrease of 39 CNY/ton or 3.54% compared to the previous week [2][8] - The average weekly price of float glass in the domestic market was 1098 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 2.45 CNY/ton, with stable transaction volumes [2][8] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises was 71.62%, up by 0.14%, while the capacity utilization rate increased to 75.57%, up by 0.34% [2][8] - Demand for float glass has slowed down due to the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to an increase in total inventory to 53.216 million heavy boxes, up by 0.38% [2][8] - Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the glass market remains significant, with insufficient production cuts relative to the decline in demand, although there are expectations for inventory pressure to ease as procurement increases [2][8] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) fluctuated this week, closing at 1198 CNY/ton, an increase of 6 CNY/ton or 0.5% [3][9] - Downstream demand remains cautious, with limited purchasing activity observed [3][9] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 86.42%, down by 0.4%, with production at 771,700 tons, a decrease of 0.46% [3][9] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 152,120 tons, down by 3.42%, indicating a clear reduction in stock [3][9] - The supply-demand situation for soda ash is relatively balanced, with some plants resuming operations after maintenance, but future production profits may be pressured due to new projects and increased expectations for float glass production cuts [3][9] Market Strategy - The strategy for the glass market is characterized as fluctuating [10] - The strategy for the soda ash market is described as fluctuating with a weak bias [10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a significant surge, with both metals reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, London gold reached a peak of $4,967.37 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4,918.783, marking a decrease of 0.35% [1][2]. - London silver showed a more robust performance, increasing by 2.01% to $98.081 per ounce, with a high of $99.392, just shy of the $100 mark [1][3]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.03% to $4,915 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,970 [4]. - COMEX silver futures surged by 1.58% to $97.895 per ounce, reaching a peak of $99.395 [5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to tariffs imposed by the U.S. and conflicts in the Middle East [5][6]. - A decline in trust towards dollar-denominated assets has led to increased investment in gold and silver as safe-haven assets [5]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, reducing the holding costs for gold and silver, while central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, providing strong support for prices [5][6]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Unlike gold, silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy, leading to a continuous supply shortage over the past five years [6]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventories have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a phase of short-term volatility while maintaining a long-term upward trend, influenced by profit-taking and underlying support dynamics [7]. - Short-term traders are advised to avoid chasing highs and to focus on key support levels, while long-term investors should consider gold and silver as hedges against dollar risk and geopolitical uncertainties [7].