TRIS指出，与1997年因汇率冲击和外币债务引发的系统性危机不同，当前风险呈现为在资本密集、主 要依赖国内需求行业中的逐步累积。上述行业普遍负债高、融资成本高，对经济复苏乏力和流动性紧张 更为敏感。 据泰媒报道，泰国评级机构TRIS Rating发布报告称，2025年泰国企业违约及债务延期比例升至5.8%， 为2000年以来最高水平，显示企业信用压力明显上升。 报告显示，2025年共有12家债券发行人发生违约或延期付款，高于2024年的8家。其中，年度违约率由 0.9%升至2.9%，违约与延期合计比例由2.9%升至5.8%。在受监管公用事业、房地产开发及建筑工程等 行业，相关案例数量甚至超过1997年亚洲金融危机时期。 值得关注的是，部分2025年违约企业此前仍属投资级评级，显示信用压力已扩散至原本较稳健的企业。 评级调整方面，2025年下调数量明显多于上调，且负面展望占主导。TRIS认为，这一趋势对泰国企业 与资本市场构成警示。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Morningstar has raised the fair value of China Longyuan Power Group (01038) by 3% to HKD 65, benefiting from a slight increase in profit expectations [1] - The stock is currently undervalued, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times and a dividend yield of 4.8%, indicating a stable mid-term outlook [1] - Morningstar forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% in earnings per share over the next five years, driven by an increase in the regulated return rate reflecting significant rises in capital costs since the last adjustment [1] Group 2 - The allowed return rate is typically adjusted every five years and is expected to be higher than government bond yields, which have significantly increased since the pandemic [1] - Morningstar predicts a compound annual growth rate of 3% in dividends per share over the next five years, with expectations that management will control dividend growth to reduce the payout ratio to below 70% [1] - Due to the improving outlook for regulated utilities and higher return rates, the firm has raised its mid-term earnings per share forecast by an average of 2.4% [1]