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可可价格暴跌
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-15 17:23
Core Viewpoint - Cocoa prices have experienced a significant decline of 45% since the beginning of the year, dropping from nearly $12,000 per ton to around $5,000 per ton, with a year-on-year decrease exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Cocoa prices have fallen sharply due to optimistic harvest expectations from Côte d'Ivoire and the end of speculative activities that had previously driven prices up [1] - Despite the recent decline, current cocoa prices are still double the average price from 2012 to 2022, which was $2,525 per ton [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together account for nearly 60% of global cocoa production, and this figure rises to 70% when including other regions in West Africa, making the cocoa industry highly susceptible to supply disruptions in this area [1] - The demand for chocolate is growing strongly, particularly in the Asian and premium markets, which are the main drivers of this demand [1] Group 3: Processing Industry - The cocoa processing industry is predominantly led by Europe, with Germany and the Netherlands controlling two-thirds of the global cocoa grinding capacity [1] - West Africa remains dominant in cocoa production, but Latin America, especially Ecuador, aims to surpass Ghana by 2027 with a target production of 650,000 tons of cocoa annually [1]