房产交易和居住服务
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贝壳-W:存量市场王者,居住成长新星-20250309
申万宏源· 2025-03-09 08:26
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 77.9, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 64.50 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as the largest real estate transaction and residential service platform in China, with a comprehensive business model that includes second-hand and new housing transactions, rental services, and home decoration [22][39]. - The company has a strong market presence, with 43,817 stores and 427,700 agents, achieving a total transaction volume of CNY 3.14 trillion in 2023, comprising CNY 1 trillion from new homes and CNY 2.03 trillion from existing homes [22][39]. - The report highlights the company's innovative business model, which includes the ACN network and the "Building Dictionary" to enhance resource control and transaction efficiency, positioning it as a leader in the industry [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a recovery from CNY 60.67 billion in 2022 to CNY 77.78 billion in 2023, with expected growth to CNY 89.95 billion in 2024 and CNY 95.51 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2023 to 2024 [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rebound from a loss of CNY 1.39 billion in 2022 to a profit of CNY 5.88 billion in 2023, with further growth to CNY 5.73 billion in 2024 and CNY 6.99 billion in 2025 [3][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to improve from a loss of CNY 0.39 in 2022 to CNY 1.63 in 2023, remaining stable in 2024 before increasing to CNY 1.99 in 2025 [3][4]. Business Structure and Growth Potential - The company operates under a "One Body, Three Wings" strategy, focusing on real estate transactions while expanding into home decoration, rental services, and the "Beihome" platform, which is expected to drive future growth [4][39]. - The second-hand housing market is identified as a significant growth area, with a market share of 29% in 2023, while the new housing market is anticipated to stabilize with a market share of 10% [4][39]. - The home decoration segment is expected to benefit from increased contract contributions, with the real estate brokerage contributing 43% to the home decoration contract volume in 2023 [4][39]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the vast existing housing market, which is projected to enter a new phase of growth as the market shifts towards existing properties [4][39]. - The transition from a direct operation model to a platform-based model is expected to enhance profitability and operational certainty, with future business expansion anticipated beyond transactions to include emerging services [4][39]. - The report emphasizes the company's potential to leverage big data and AI to further explore customer needs and expand its business ecosystem around "people, houses, and money" [4][39].