总交易额8787亿元，同比增长4.7%；净收入260亿元，同比增长11.3%，这是贝壳今年二季度交出的成 绩单。尤为亮眼的是，贝壳二季度非房产交易服务业务的净收入占总净收入比例达到41%，呈现出多元 增长的格局。 在上半年整体市场先扬后抑的走势下，这份彰显韧性的业绩报告，有力证明贝壳正逐步摆脱市场波动影 响、逐渐具备阿尔法跑赢贝塔的实力。 当行业还在适应市场新常态时，贝壳已然开启了一场深刻的自我变革。贝壳联合创始人、董事长、首席 执行官彭永东在业绩会上明确指出："我们正处在一个重要的转折点。规模与效率的平衡、消费者需求 的变化、以及技术的迅猛发展，都是我们必须面对的课题。" 于贝壳而言，这不仅是业务的优化调整，更是整个组织思维模式和增长范式的深度重塑。 转向价值密度，提升"一体"房产交易服务业务含金量 在房产交易领域，贝壳通过ACN合作网络与真房源体系，解决了"好资产"和"交易安全"的稀缺性问题， 构建起坚实的规模护城河，为"一体"业务奠定了稳健发展的基础。 如今，随着市场由卖方向买方转移，贝壳敏锐地察觉到，新的稀缺性已经变为"买对房的认知""卖好房 的操盘能力"和"共情客户的情绪价值"。因此，从追求规模，转 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (02423), marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - Beike has evolved from a leading intermediary to a comprehensive residential service platform, with a projected GTV of 33,494 billion RMB and a revenue growth of 20.2% year-on-year for 2024 [3][11]. - The company's existing housing business remains robust, with a GTV of 22,000 billion RMB and a market share increase to 30.7%, continuing to be the core profit source [3][11]. - New housing business shows counter-cyclical growth, with a revenue increase of 10.1% year-on-year, while home decoration and rental services are rapidly expanding, with revenue growth of 36.1% and 135.0% respectively, forming a second growth curve [3][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 80.8 billion RMB, 90.6 billion RMB, and 99.7 billion RMB respectively, indicating significant platform ecosystem synergy [3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike, as a leading one-stop residential service platform in China, covers transactions, rentals, and home decoration, facilitating over 4.9 million transactions in 2024 with a GTV of 33,494 billion RMB [11][25]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Beike achieved total revenue of 93,457 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. The existing and new housing businesses contributed 30.2% and 36.0% to revenue respectively, while home decoration and rental services grew significantly [33][38]. - The GTV has shown a steady increase, with a market share rise in both new and existing housing from 2.2% and 12.6% in 2018 to 11.4% and 31.0% in 2024 respectively [33][37]. Business Segments - The existing housing business is expected to continue its recovery, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 298.3 billion RMB, 323.5 billion RMB, and 346.6 billion RMB, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [17]. - The new housing market is under pressure, but Beike's platform advantages are expected to enhance its market share during this phase [17]. - Home decoration and rental services are anticipated to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 182.9 billion RMB, 219.5 billion RMB, and 256.8 billion RMB for 2025-2027, indicating a strong upward trend [18]. Profitability and Valuation - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 72.11 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year due to revenue structure disturbances and one-time employee incentives [12][19]. - The company is actively pursuing share buybacks and dividends, with a buyback plan of up to 30 billion USD and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 75% [56][57].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong market position and growth potential in various business segments [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company began operations in 2001 and launched its integrated platform in 2018, going public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2020 and completing a dual listing in Hong Kong in 2022 [1]. - The company has established a strategic direction of "one body and three wings," focusing on real estate brokerage while simultaneously driving growth in home renovation, rental services, and data-driven residential development [1][3]. - In 2024, the company expects total transaction volume to reach 3.3 trillion yuan, with net revenue projected at 934.6 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Performance - The company maintains a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a significant market share in both the second-hand and new housing markets [2]. - In 2024, the transaction volume for second-hand homes is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 31% of the national market, while new home transactions are projected at 970 billion yuan, representing 11.4% of the national total [2]. - The company has implemented standards and networks that enhance service quality and create competitive advantages, addressing industry pain points [2]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The home renovation and furnishing segment is rapidly growing, with projected transaction volume and net revenue of 16.9 billion yuan and 14.77 billion yuan, respectively, from 2021 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% and 321.3% [3]. - The rental business has expanded significantly, with the number of managed rental units increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 by 2024 [3]. - The company is exploring new growth opportunities through its data-driven residential development platform, which aims to provide comprehensive solutions based on consumer needs [3]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company is expected to deliver earnings per share (EPS) of 1.58 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.11 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings of growth [6][11] - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][20] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [27] Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - The company began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11] - The total transaction volume is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [20] 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - The company holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [48] - The company has established a unique competitive advantage through its "True Source" standard and ACN network, addressing industry pain points [51] 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration and Rental Services - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6] - The rental service has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of USD 600 million in 2023 and USD 400 million in 2024 [27]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a current stock price of HKD 49.55 [1]. Core Views - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings: home decoration, rental services, and Beihome [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][21]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - Beike began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11]. - The company has established a "one body, three wings" strategy, with a projected total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024 [6][11]. 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - Beike holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [51]. - The company has implemented the "True Source" standard and the ACN network, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [54]. 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration, Rental, and Beihome Potential - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - The rental business has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable commission rate in the new home market, while the second-hand home commission rate may face pressure [6].

Core Viewpoint - Beike is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, transitioning from a traditional real estate service provider to a comprehensive living service provider with its "one body, three wings" strategy focusing on real estate brokerage, home decoration, and related services [3]. Group 1: Real Estate Brokerage Business - Beike has a significant advantage with its integrated online and offline platform, featuring 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024. The platform integrates various real estate brokerage brands, enhancing its scale advantage [4]. - The company effectively addresses issues such as fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN mechanism, while promoting digital transformation to improve efficiency and customer experience [4]. - The growth of the real estate brokerage business is expected to continue due to increasing turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and the company's leading market share [4]. Group 2: Home Decoration and Furniture Business - The domestic home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion by 2024, characterized by high fragmentation and consumer dissatisfaction due to issues like price transparency and long delivery times [5]. - Beike leverages its real estate brokerage business to drive traffic and employs a "standardization + digitalization + full-link integration" model to enhance delivery capabilities in home decoration [5]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Home Decoration in 2022, Beike is in a phase of scaling its operations by combining vertical management with an internet platform model [5]. Group 3: Rental and Residential Development - The "Worry-Free Rental" model focuses on sustainable profitability by improving rental efficiency and reducing vacancy periods, managing over 430,000 rental units by the end of 2024 [6]. - The "Beihome" initiative explores a new C2M residential development model, with plans to expand operations in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou in 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, poised to benefit from real estate recovery, with its three wings of business gradually forming a second growth curve [3][11]. - The company has launched a strategic shift from traditional real estate transactions to comprehensive living services, encapsulated in its "One Body, Three Wings" strategy [1][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, originally founded as Beijing Lianjia in 2001, has evolved into the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a significant focus on digital transformation and integration of services [1][20]. - The company has a unique dual-class share structure, with core management holding nearly half of the voting rights, ensuring strategic control [28][29]. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The brokerage business benefits from a strong online and offline integration, with 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024 [1]. - The company has developed a robust mechanism to address issues like fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN network, enhancing transaction efficiency [1][10]. Home Decoration and Furnishing Business - The home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with the company leveraging its brokerage business to drive traffic and enhance service delivery through digitalization [2][10]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Decoration, the company is in a phase of scaling its operations through a combination of vertical management and internet platform models [2][10]. Rental and Residential Development - The rental business, centered around the "Worry-Free Rental" model, aims for sustainable profitability by improving property turnover rates and reducing vacancy periods [2][10]. - The "Beihome" initiative is being piloted in major cities, with plans for expansion in 2025 [2][10]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see a net profit of 5.77 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.44 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 22 [3][11]. - The report highlights the stability of the brokerage business and the high growth potential of the home decoration and rental segments as key drivers for future profitability [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is recovering, and with the successful implementation of the "One Body, Three Wings" strategy, the company has achieved stable performance in Q1 2025, showing significant growth in transaction volume and net income [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total transaction volume (GTV) of 843.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, and net income of 23.3 billion RMB, up 42.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 855 million RMB [1][2]. - The company's operating efficiency has improved, leading to a decrease in operating expenses to 4.2 billion RMB, down 31.3% quarter-on-quarter, and an adjusted net profit of 1.393 billion RMB [4]. Group 2: Business Segments - The core brokerage business has shown high growth, with existing home transaction volume reaching 580.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, and new home transaction volume at 232.2 billion RMB, up 53% [2][3]. - Non-real estate transaction services have become a significant growth driver, with net income from this segment growing 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for 35.9% of total net income [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The "One Body, Three Wings" strategy includes new home and existing home transactions as the core, with the three wings being home renovation, rental services, and the Beihome business [3][5]. - The company has invested in AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, launching tools like the AI house-hunting assistant "Pudding" and the client communication assistant "Laike" to improve user experience and transaction rates [2][3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the real estate market, with a significant increase in transaction volume and viewing numbers since the policy changes in September 2024 [5]. - The shift towards a stock market era in real estate is favorable for the company, as the proportion of existing home transactions has rapidly increased, reaching a historical high of 46% by the end of 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is entering a new phase of stabilization, and Beike has reported better-than-expected financial results amid this backdrop [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, Beike achieved net revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with a net profit of 855 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 1.393 billion yuan [2] - Beike's transaction volume for existing homes reached 580.3 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year, while new home transaction volume grew 53% to 232.2 billion yuan, with net revenue increasing by 64.2% to 8.1 billion yuan [6] Business Strategy - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy has shown effectiveness, with non-real estate transaction services accounting for 35.9% of total net revenue, growing 46.2% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is focusing on optimizing developer partnerships and enhancing service efficiency to meet inventory clearance needs [7] Market Context - The real estate market is experiencing a shift in policy focus from preventing rapid price increases to promoting stabilization, with supportive measures being implemented by various government bodies [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline of 0.4% in new home sales, which is significantly better than the previous year, while the second-hand housing market showed signs of recovery [5] Operational Efficiency - Beike's active store count surpassed 55,210, marking a historical peak, with a 23% year-on-year increase in active agents, totaling 491,000 [7] - The company reported improvements in operational efficiency, with store and agent productivity increasing by 8% and 14% respectively [7] Technological Innovation - Beike is leveraging AI technology to enhance its real estate service value chain, with tools like the AI housing assistant "Pudding" and various AI products for agents [12][13] - The AI-driven solutions have significantly improved efficiency, with over 20,000 agents participating in the pilot programs, leading to a 30% increase in client conversion rates [12] Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence in its long-term growth under the "One Body, Three Wings" strategy and plans to continue investing in AI applications [15] - As the real estate market stabilizes, Beike aims to transition from scale expansion to quality growth, enhancing the overall living experience for consumers [15]

Core Viewpoint - Beike (BEKE.US) reported strong Q1 2025 financial results, exceeding market expectations, with significant growth in both existing and new home transactions, as well as rapid expansion in non-property services [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Beike achieved a total transaction volume of 843.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and total revenue of 23.3 billion RMB, up 42.4% year-on-year [1]. - The existing home business generated a transaction volume of 580.3 billion RMB, a 28.1% increase year-on-year, with net income of 6.9 billion RMB, up 20.0% [2]. - The new home business saw a transaction volume of 232.2 billion RMB, a 53.0% increase year-on-year, with net income of 8.1 billion RMB, up 64.2% [2]. - Non-property services reported a net income growth of 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for 35.9% of total net income, with rental services net income reaching 5.1 billion RMB, a 93.8% increase [3]. Profitability - Beike's net profit for Q1 2025 was 0.855 billion RMB, a 97.9% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 1.393 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin decreased from 25.2% in the previous year to 20.7%, attributed to a lower contribution from the higher-margin existing home business and increased fixed salary costs [3]. Market Context - The positive performance is linked to a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which have led to favorable conditions in both new and second-hand home markets [3]. - Beike's CEO expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth strategy and ongoing investments in AI applications [3]. Investor Reaction - Despite the strong performance, Beike's stock fell by 5.29% to $19.16 per share on May 15, 2025, with H-shares also showing a slight decline [4]. - This negative reaction may be related to conservative guidance for Q2 2025, with expected revenue of 26 billion RMB, which is 10% lower than UBS's forecast [5]. Future Outlook - Beike anticipates a conservative growth outlook for Q2 2025, with second-hand home transaction volume expected to remain flat year-on-year and new home transaction volume projected to grow by 10% [5]. - The company expects home decoration and rental income to grow by double digits and 70% year-on-year, respectively [5].