Core Viewpoint - Beike is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, transitioning from a traditional real estate service provider to a comprehensive living service provider with its "one body, three wings" strategy focusing on real estate brokerage, home decoration, and related services [3]. Group 1: Real Estate Brokerage Business - Beike has a significant advantage with its integrated online and offline platform, featuring 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024. The platform integrates various real estate brokerage brands, enhancing its scale advantage [4]. - The company effectively addresses issues such as fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN mechanism, while promoting digital transformation to improve efficiency and customer experience [4]. - The growth of the real estate brokerage business is expected to continue due to increasing turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and the company's leading market share [4]. Group 2: Home Decoration and Furniture Business - The domestic home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion by 2024, characterized by high fragmentation and consumer dissatisfaction due to issues like price transparency and long delivery times [5]. - Beike leverages its real estate brokerage business to drive traffic and employs a "standardization + digitalization + full-link integration" model to enhance delivery capabilities in home decoration [5]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Home Decoration in 2022, Beike is in a phase of scaling its operations by combining vertical management with an internet platform model [5]. Group 3: Rental and Residential Development - The "Worry-Free Rental" model focuses on sustainable profitability by improving rental efficiency and reducing vacancy periods, managing over 430,000 rental units by the end of 2024 [6]. - The "Beihome" initiative explores a new C2M residential development model, with plans to expand operations in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou in 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, poised to benefit from real estate recovery, with its three wings of business gradually forming a second growth curve [3][11]. - The company has launched a strategic shift from traditional real estate transactions to comprehensive living services, encapsulated in its "One Body, Three Wings" strategy [1][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, originally founded as Beijing Lianjia in 2001, has evolved into the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a significant focus on digital transformation and integration of services [1][20]. - The company has a unique dual-class share structure, with core management holding nearly half of the voting rights, ensuring strategic control [28][29]. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The brokerage business benefits from a strong online and offline integration, with 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024 [1]. - The company has developed a robust mechanism to address issues like fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN network, enhancing transaction efficiency [1][10]. Home Decoration and Furnishing Business - The home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with the company leveraging its brokerage business to drive traffic and enhance service delivery through digitalization [2][10]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Decoration, the company is in a phase of scaling its operations through a combination of vertical management and internet platform models [2][10]. Rental and Residential Development - The rental business, centered around the "Worry-Free Rental" model, aims for sustainable profitability by improving property turnover rates and reducing vacancy periods [2][10]. - The "Beihome" initiative is being piloted in major cities, with plans for expansion in 2025 [2][10]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see a net profit of 5.77 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.44 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 22 [3][11]. - The report highlights the stability of the brokerage business and the high growth potential of the home decoration and rental segments as key drivers for future profitability [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of technology, particularly AI, in enhancing the efficiency and evolution of the real estate industry, with Beike (NYSE: BEKE; HKEX: 2423) demonstrating strong performance through data, AI, and internet technologies [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Beike achieved a total transaction volume (GTV) of 843.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, with net revenue of 23.3 billion RMB, up 42.4%, and a net profit of 855 million RMB, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.393 billion RMB [2]. - Beike's existing home business GTV reached 580.3 billion RMB, growing 28.1%, while new home business GTV was 232.2 billion RMB, up 53.0% [3]. - Non-real estate transaction service revenue grew by 46.2%, accounting for 35.9% of total net revenue, with home decoration and furnishing business revenue at 2.9 billion RMB, a 22.3% increase [5]. Strategic Development - Beike has adopted a "one body, three wings" strategy, focusing on real estate transactions as the core while expanding into home decoration, rental, and related services [4]. - The company emphasizes a technology-driven approach, positioning itself as a digital "infrastructure builder" in the housing industry [3][4]. AI Integration - Beike is leveraging AI to enhance service efficiency and consumer experience, with tools like the "Customer Assistant" and "AI Property Maintenance Assistant" significantly improving agent performance and customer engagement [9][10]. - The company has developed AI models such as ChatHome and Dreamhome to support various applications in the housing sector, enhancing decision-making for consumers [12][14]. Market Adaptation - Despite a general downturn in the real estate market, Beike has shown resilience, benefiting from a structural recovery in the second-hand housing market and maintaining high activity levels [3]. - The shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market has led to increased consumer demand for quality service, prompting Beike to enhance its service offerings [6][10]. Investment in Technology - Beike's R&D expenditure reached 584 million RMB in Q1, a 24.9% increase year-on-year, with total R&D spending exceeding 12 billion RMB since its IPO in 2020 [15]. - The company is committed to continuous investment in AI applications, indicating a sustained focus on technological advancement to drive industry transformation [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction volume of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The existing home transaction volume was 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, accounting for 67.1% of total transactions. The new home transaction volume was 0.97 trillion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with a market share of 11.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. The company's net revenue for 2024 was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The second-hand housing market showed a 6% increase in transaction area in 35 key cities, while the new housing market saw a 12.9% decline in transaction area nationwide. The company, as a leading internet intermediary, is expected to benefit from the market recovery [2] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating expenses for 2024 were 19.2 billion yuan, with a fee rate of 20.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from 2023. The number of stores increased to 51,573, with active stores at 49,693, a growth of 18.3%. The number of agents reached 500,000, with active agents at 445,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [3] Revenue Growth from New Segments - The home decoration business generated net revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of total revenue. The rental business saw net revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 135% year-on-year, contributing to 15.3% of total revenue. The "second curve" revenue contribution reached 34%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 6.8 billion yuan in 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share of 1.89 yuan. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 101.37 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% growth [11][10]

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 03 月 08 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——存量市场王者，居住成长新星 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 64.50 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8914.03 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 73.50/32.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,336.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,477.71 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0839 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 贝壳简介：创业垂统、 ...