浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 小米集团（1810.HK）：汽车毛利率表 现持续强劲，看好公司长期价值成长 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 270,970 | 365,906 | 480,258 | 632,234 | 756,748 | | 同比增速 | (3%) | 35% | 31% | 32% | 20% | | 经调整净利润 | 19,273 | 27,235 | 41,555 | 57,939 | 71,496 | | 同比增速 | 126% | 41% | 53% | 39% | 23% | | 目标 P/E (x) | 90.2 | 63.7 | 41.7 | 29.9 | 24.3 | E=浦银国际预测 资料来源：公司报告、浦银国际 沈岱 首席科技分析师 tony_shen@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6435 黄佳琦 科技分析师 sia_huang@spdbi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $236.3, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $198.5 [1][5]. Core Insights - The short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies on the company is limited due to its global production capacity and supply chain adjustments. The company expects a cost increase of approximately $900 million in FY3Q25 due to tariffs, which is manageable [1][3]. - The company is optimistic about its long-term fundamentals, driven by ongoing investments in the U.S. totaling $500 billion, including chip procurement from TSMC's Arizona factory [1][3]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26x, down from a peak of 33x earlier in the year, suggesting that the market has already priced in tariff-related risks [1][3]. Financial Guidance - For FY2Q25, the company reported revenues of $95.359 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, but a 23% decrease quarter-over-quarter, aligning with company guidance [2][11]. - The gross margin for FY2Q25 was 47.1%, slightly above the previous year and within the guidance range, although it was slightly below market expectations due to product mix and currency effects [2][11]. - The company anticipates mid-single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for FY3Q25, with a gross margin forecast of 46% [2][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2025 are set at $410.799 billion, reflecting a 5% year-over-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach $109.736 billion, a 17% increase [4][12]. - The report outlines a steady growth trajectory for revenues and profits through FY2027, with projected revenues of $469.877 billion and net profits of $129.890 billion by FY2027 [4][12]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, projecting a growth rate of 7% for FY2030-FY2034 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, resulting in a target price of $236.3, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 32.2x for FY2025 [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 75.0, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 58.20 [1][5][29] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenues and adjusted net profits in Q4 2024, with revenues reaching RMB 109 billion, adjusted net profits at RMB 8.3 billion, and core business net profits at RMB 9 billion, reflecting strong growth [1][14] - The company's strategic direction and management execution are highlighted as key factors for its robust performance, with significant growth expected in its smartphone, electric vehicle, and IoT segments [1][2] - The report expresses optimism about the company's long-term value growth, supported by its ecosystem strategy and leadership positions in various business segments [1][2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set to grow from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023 to RMB 705.62 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% [4][15] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 19.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.14 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][15] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in gross margins across various segments, particularly in smartphones and IoT products, driven by cost reductions and strategic initiatives [2][15] Segment Analysis - Smartphone segment: Expected shipment volume to exceed 180 million units in 2025, with improved gross margins due to cost reductions and high-end product strategies [2][15] - IoT segment: Anticipated revenue growth exceeding 20%, driven by large appliance sales and international expansion [2][15] - Internet services: Projected to maintain stable revenue growth and high gross margins due to a growing user base [2][15] - Electric vehicle segment: Targeting sales of 350,000 units, with expectations for steady margin improvements [2][15] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target price-to-earnings ratios of 25.0x for smartphones, 30.0x for IoT, and 25.0x for internet services, leading to a target price of HKD 75.0 [2][16] - The current price reflects a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.1x, suggesting room for valuation expansion given the company's growth prospects [1][2]