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苹果(AAPL):美国关税政策短期影响有限
SPDB International· 2025-05-09 03:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $236.3, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $198.5 [1][5]. Core Insights - The short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies on the company is limited due to its global production capacity and supply chain adjustments. The company expects a cost increase of approximately $900 million in FY3Q25 due to tariffs, which is manageable [1][3]. - The company is optimistic about its long-term fundamentals, driven by ongoing investments in the U.S. totaling $500 billion, including chip procurement from TSMC's Arizona factory [1][3]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26x, down from a peak of 33x earlier in the year, suggesting that the market has already priced in tariff-related risks [1][3]. Financial Guidance - For FY2Q25, the company reported revenues of $95.359 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, but a 23% decrease quarter-over-quarter, aligning with company guidance [2][11]. - The gross margin for FY2Q25 was 47.1%, slightly above the previous year and within the guidance range, although it was slightly below market expectations due to product mix and currency effects [2][11]. - The company anticipates mid-single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for FY3Q25, with a gross margin forecast of 46% [2][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2025 are set at $410.799 billion, reflecting a 5% year-over-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach $109.736 billion, a 17% increase [4][12]. - The report outlines a steady growth trajectory for revenues and profits through FY2027, with projected revenues of $469.877 billion and net profits of $129.890 billion by FY2027 [4][12]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, projecting a growth rate of 7% for FY2030-FY2034 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, resulting in a target price of $236.3, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 32.2x for FY2025 [3][12].