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申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250806
Group 1: JD Health - JD Health has evolved from a pharmaceutical e-commerce platform to a comprehensive service provider covering health product sales, medical services, and smart healthcare solutions since February 2014 [11] - The core driver of JD Health's performance is its self-operated pharmaceutical business, which is expected to generate revenue of 48.8 billion in 2024, growing by 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 84% of total revenue [11] - The online retail penetration rate for pharmaceuticals is currently low at approximately 13%, but it is anticipated to accelerate due to the increasing trend of prescription drugs moving outside hospitals and the enhancement of online medical insurance coverage [11] - The competitive landscape in internet healthcare is expected to stabilize by 2025, with JD Health leveraging its supply chain, service ecosystem, and AI technology to create a competitive barrier [11] - Revenue projections for JD Health are estimated at 63.65 billion, 69.65 billion, and 76.55 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of 4.52 billion, 5.04 billion, and 5.79 billion respectively [11] Group 2: Changjiu Logistics - Changjiu Logistics is positioned as a leading enterprise in the truck logistics transportation sector, transitioning from price competition to high-quality development amid a "de-involution" trend [10] - The implementation of new regulatory measures is expected to enhance the pricing power and market share of compliant companies, with average freight rates for Changjiu Logistics increasing by 27% from 2015 to 2018 [10] - The company has invested in 2,456 mid-axle transport vehicles, with depreciation costs expected to decline in 2025, leading to improved profitability [10] - The logistics sector is witnessing a shift towards automation, with autonomous driving technology poised to enhance operational efficiency and safety in traditional logistics [12] - Revenue projections for Changjiu Logistics are estimated at 0.88 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.53 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 10.84%, 46.67%, and 18.12% [14]