消息面上，1月5日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在拉斯维加斯举行的CES展会上发布了Alpamayo平台，使汽车能 够在真实世界中进行"推理"。黄仁勋表示，首款搭载英伟达技术的汽车将于第一季度在美国上路，第二 季度在欧洲上路，下半年在亚洲上路。此外，英伟达宣布开源其首个推理VLA(视觉-语言-动作)模型 Alpamayo1，这一举措旨在加速安全的自动驾驶技术开发。 智驾概念股全线走高，截至发稿，浙江世宝（002703）(01057)涨9.98%，报5.62港元；商汤-W(00020)涨 6.25%，报2.38港元；小马智行-W(02026)涨5.46%，报129.5港元；地平线机器人-W(09660)涨4.05%，报 9.24港元。 华金证券发布研报称，当前L3窗口期明确，多家国内主机厂即将量产上车，同时自主品牌在智能化方 面持续发力，高阶智驾下沉明显，2025年1~9月L2及以上辅助驾驶车型渗透率达64.7%，创历史新高。 因此，该行看好电动化和智能化带动汽车产业链继续发展，智能化零部件渗透率继续提升，同时国内产 业链叠加出海有望在2026年加速放量，相关零部件厂商受益于产业升级带来增量机会。 ...

消息面上，1月5日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在拉斯维加斯举行的CES展会上发布了Alpamayo平台，使汽车能 够在真实世界中进行"推理"。黄仁勋表示，首款搭载英伟达技术的汽车将于第一季度在美国上路，第二 季度在欧洲上路，下半年在亚洲上路。此外，英伟达宣布开源其首个推理 VLA (视觉-语言-动作) 模型 Alpamayo 1，这一举措旨在加速安全的自动驾驶技术开发。 华金证券发布研报称，当前L3窗口期明确，多家国内主机厂即将量产上车，同时自主品牌在智能化方 面持续发力，高阶智驾下沉明显，2025年1~9月L2及以上辅助驾驶车型渗透率达64.7%，创历史新高。 因此，该行看好电动化和智能化带动汽车产业链继续发展，智能化零部件渗透率继续提升，同时国内产 业链叠加出海有望在2026年加速放量，相关零部件厂商受益于产业升级带来增量机会。 智通财经APP获悉，智驾概念股全线走高，截至发稿，浙江世宝(01057)涨9.98%，报5.62港元；商汤- W(00020)涨6.25%，报2.38港元；小马智行-W(02026)涨5.46%，报129.5港元；地平线机器人-W(09660) 涨4.05%，报9.24港元。 ...

附件："全流通"股东名称及转换数量 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 申请 流通股数(股) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 吴甘沙 | 8,113,910 | | 2 | 北京司马驹科技中心(有限合伙) | 14,111,120 | | 3 | 北京格灵深瞳信息技术股份有限公司 | 11,677,930 | | 4 | 姜岩 | 7,055,560 | | 5 | Century Gateway Investment Limited | 5,742,770 | | 6 | 宁波澜亭视聆投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 5,187,920 | | 7 | 陕西西科天使叁期商务信息咨询合伙企业(有限合伙) | 5,110,390 | | 8 | Sinovation Fund III,L.P. | 5,065,700 | | 9 | 南京中金启泓投资基金合伙企业(有限合伙) | 4,314,230 | | 10 | 重庆科学城投资控股有限公司 | 4,055,450 | | II | 共青城新鼎华麒壹号股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 3,740,040 | | 12 | 彭进展 | 1,000,0 ...

二、2025 年 Q4 核心数据解读 受美国联邦电动汽车税收抵免政策于 9 月底到期的影响，市场对特斯拉 2025 年四季度的业绩预期本就不高。为提振销量，特斯拉推出了多 项激励措施，而挪威电动汽车补贴政策年底退坡的预期，也在一定程度上拉动了当地的提前购车需求。特斯拉在周五公布的具体交付数据如 下： 近日，特斯拉（Tesla, TSLA）公布了 2025 年第四季度的生产与交付报告。尽管公司 CEO 埃隆・马斯克年初曾指引全年销量增速将达 20% 至 30%，但受多重因素影响，这一目标最终未能实现。 财报显示，特斯拉全年交付量同比大幅下滑，同时自动驾驶业务的推进也远不及 预期，公司自历史高点持续回落。 一、往期报道回顾 特斯拉公布 2025 年第三季度业绩已过去两个月时间。彼时，公司营收显著超出市场预期，但净利润却未能达标。马斯克在财报会上仍对自动 驾驶出租车（Robo-Taxi）计划持高度乐观态度，受此提振，特斯拉股价一度创下历史新高，随后才出现回落。 自第三季度财报发布至上周 五收盘，公司股价累计上涨逾 4%，跑赢标普 500 指数约 2 个百分点。 单从估值来看，作为一家汽车制造商，特斯拉的股价显得极度 ...

乌鲁木齐机场机坪环境复杂、安全要求高，且冬季-25℃极寒易导致传感器失效、路面打滑等问题，给自动驾驶带来多重考验。传统人工驾驶还存在疲劳驾 驶、操作失误、培训成本高、效率不足等痛点，难以适配机场规模化运营需求。基于前期合作，驭势科技针对性打造全场景无人驾驶解决方案：硬件上配备 多源传感器，定制耐寒组件并优化电池保温；软件采用多源融合感知、厘米级定位技术，结合车-云协作大模型，攻克室内外无缝切换难题；同时通过冗余 设计与云边协同运维保障系统可靠。项目2020年冬季启动测试，2021年投入5台车辆商业化运营，2025年扩展至40余台，覆盖货邮转运和行李保障全场景。 经近4年验证，项目成效显著：安全上实现"零主责事故"，累计运行超54万公里；效率上承担机场90%以上货邮转运任务，单日峰值作业800拖斗；服务上完 成冷链、疫苗等物资运输，累计服务航班超9万架次；成本上降低车辆磨损与人员培训支出，提升运营性价比。 驭势科技是全球领先的多领域全场景自动驾驶解决方案提供商，专注于真无人、全场景的L4级自动驾驶技术研发与落地。公司自研U-Drive系统，构建了覆 盖出行、物流与作业车的三大产品体系。在机场无人驾驶领域，驭势科 ...

随着2025年步入尾声，回顾马斯克对本年度的一系列宏大承诺，从自动驾驶技术的普及到人工智能的突 破，再到政府支出的削减，市场发现其履约记录呈现全面缺失的状态。这位科技巨头曾向投资者和公众 许下的多个关键时间表，在年底均未转化为现实。 在公共财政领域，马斯克作为新成立的准政府机构DOGE的领导者，其表现同样未达预期。在特朗普再 次当选后，马斯克承诺将通过DOGE削减2万亿美元的"浪费、欺诈和滥用"资金。然而，随着时间推 移，这一目标先是被修正为1万亿美元，随后又降至数千亿美元。 根据市场分析，DOGE并未实现实质性的储蓄。数据显示，2025日历年的前11个月，联邦政府支出总额 达到7.6万亿美元，与2024年同期相比，支出实际上增加了约2480亿美元。分析指出，DOGE声称取消 的许多政府合同实际上仍然有效，其发布的数据也多次被指不准确。 xAI通用人工智能与Roadster演示跳票 在对资本市场影响最为显著的特斯拉业务上，马斯克曾明确向投资者表示，到2025年底特斯拉的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）将覆盖美国半数人口，且不再需要人类安全驾驶员。然而，目前的实际运 营情况与上述指引严重背离，该服务仅局限于 ...

分析师预计特斯拉第四季度交付量同比下滑15%，2025年全年交付量将在在160万辆至165万辆之间，同比约降8%，面临连续两年销量萎 缩。受美国税收抵免到期、全球竞争加剧及需求透支等多重冲击，尽管特斯拉推出廉价版车型，但北美与欧洲市场依然疲软。 由于美国税收抵免政策失效以及全球竞争日益激烈，特斯拉在第四季度面临显著的销售收缩压力，预计将录得连续第二个年度交付量下 滑。 特斯拉周一在其网站上罕见发布了分析师预测汇总，数据显示， 分析师平均预期特斯拉第四季度交付量为422850辆，同比下降15%。 这 一由公司内部汇总的预期数据，比彭博此前调查得出的平均值（445061辆，降幅10%）更为悲观。 这一疲软的季度表现将拖累全年的业绩数据。根据Visible Alpha的调查以及特斯拉汇总的数据，该公司 2025年全年交付量预计在160万辆 至165万辆之间，同比下降约8%。 这将是该汽车制造商连续第二年出现年度销量下滑，且降幅较上一年更为剧烈。 尽管特斯拉在季度初推出了价格更低的车型版本以试图抵消补贴退坡的影响，但市场需求依然承压，投资者正密切关注将于本周五发布的 最终生产与交付数据。 | | Q3-2025 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant sales contraction pressure in Q4 due to the expiration of U.S. tax credits and increasing global competition, with expectations of a second consecutive annual decline in delivery volume [1] Group 1: Q4 Delivery Expectations - Analysts predict Tesla's Q4 delivery volume to be 422,850 units, a 15% year-over-year decline, which is more pessimistic than Bloomberg's previous estimate of 445,061 units, reflecting a 10% drop [1] - This weak quarterly performance is expected to negatively impact the annual performance, with total deliveries for 2025 projected between 1.6 million and 1.65 million units, representing an approximately 8% year-over-year decline [1][4] - The decline in Q4 deliveries is largely attributed to the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, which led buyers to purchase vehicles earlier in Q3 to secure the incentive [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - Despite the introduction of lower-priced versions of the Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan in October, demand remains pressured due to the lack of tax credits and intensified competition from traditional automakers and Chinese EV companies [4] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicate that the sales decline will be primarily driven by weak performance in North America and Europe, where competition is expected to increase significantly over the next two years [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Tesla's proactive disclosure of analyst estimates on its investor relations page is unusual, indicating a more cautious market outlook compared to external surveys [5] - Despite the slowdown in automotive sales, Tesla's stock price has increased by over 14% year-to-date, although this performance lags behind the S&P 500 index's 17% gain [6] - Investor enthusiasm is largely based on Musk's strategic focus on Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and improved autonomous driving technology, although electric vehicle sales remain the primary revenue source [8]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese automotive market faces significant safety issues amid rapid electrification and intelligence advancements, prompting a reevaluation of safety standards and regulatory frameworks [2][3]. Group 1: Multi-Dimensional Safety Issues - Safety concerns have expanded beyond traditional collision safety to include complex areas such as battery systems, intelligent driving, and vehicle design [3]. - A serious rear-end collision involving a high-level assisted driving vehicle highlighted the limitations of intelligent driving systems in complex scenarios, revealing a gap between over-promised capabilities and actual performance [3]. - Battery safety issues resurfaced with incidents of spontaneous combustion in plug-in hybrid vehicles, raising public concerns about battery management and quality control [3][4]. - The design of hidden door handles has led to multiple accidents where electronic handles failed to operate during emergencies, delaying rescue efforts [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory and Standardization Efforts - In response to safety challenges, regulatory bodies and industry associations initiated a "safety return" movement, focusing on proactive safety frameworks rather than reactive measures [5]. - A new mandatory national standard for L2-level assisted driving systems has been drafted, incorporating testing scenarios relevant to China's unique road conditions [5][6]. - The upcoming revision of the mandatory standard for electric vehicle battery safety aims to eliminate thermal runaway incidents, imposing stricter validation requirements on battery systems [6]. Group 3: Future Safety Landscape - By 2026, the automotive safety landscape is expected to shift fundamentally, with compliance becoming the baseline and safety experience emerging as a core product differentiator [7]. - The introduction of L3-level automated driving is anticipated, shifting accident liability from drivers to manufacturers, thereby increasing safety expectations [7]. - The competition in technology routes may be influenced by new safety standards, favoring multi-sensor solutions over purely visual systems [7][8]. - Consumers will increasingly rely on tangible safety metrics, with third-party evaluations expanding to include various safety dimensions beyond collision tests [7][8]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Automotive manufacturers and component suppliers are likely to establish new supply chain barriers centered around safety technologies, such as high-safety-grade chips and compliant battery systems [8]. - The ability to demonstrate safety capabilities will be crucial for gaining long-term consumer trust in the evolving market [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the structural transformation of the Chinese automotive industry in 2025, driven by three significant changes that indicate new directions for future development [1] Group 2 - 2025 is anticipated to be the "Year of Universal Intelligent Driving," with automatic driving technology transitioning from luxury models to standard features in the mass market, making intelligent driving more accessible to ordinary consumers [2] - The penetration rate of passenger cars equipped with combined driving assistance functions reached 64% in the first three quarters of this year, with sales increasing by 21.2% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are becoming the dominant force in the market, with their sales surpassing 50% of total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6% in October [3] - The domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 53.6% of total passenger vehicle sales in the first 11 months of this year, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth [3][4] Group 4 - The industry is maturing as internal driving forces are fully activated, with issues like range anxiety and charging convenience being largely resolved, making intelligent features and cost advantages key attractions for consumers [4] Group 5 - The competitive landscape is shifting from price wars to quality competition, with a significant reduction in harmful price-cutting practices and a focus on technological development and user service [5] - The supply chain ecosystem is undergoing systematic recovery, with mainstream automakers shortening supplier payment cycles to 60 days, improving the financial dynamics between automakers and suppliers [5]