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晨光股份(603899):25Q3传统业务收入降幅收窄,科力普增速亮眼
CMS· 2025-10-30 14:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in its traditional business, benefiting from further development of IP-related products, while the KOLIP business is experiencing significant growth due to released customer demand and ongoing expansion of retail stores [6][7]. - The company's revenue growth turned positive in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.25% for the first three quarters and a 7.52% increase in Q3 alone [6]. - The traditional business revenue decline has narrowed, with Q3 2025 traditional business revenue at 2.542 billion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year, while KOLIP revenue grew by 17.3% to 3.562 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company’s profitability showed slight fluctuations, with a net profit margin of 6.00% in Q3 2025, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 23.351 billion yuan in 2023 to 29.595 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.527 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.707 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 9.8% [2][8]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 16.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [2][9]. Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 20.8% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2027, reflecting a decrease in profitability efficiency [9]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to improve from 45.5% in 2023 to 39.4% in 2027, indicating better financial stability [9]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 18.9% in 2023 to 19.4% in 2027 [9].