Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in its traditional business, benefiting from further development of IP-related products, while the KOLIP business is experiencing significant growth due to released customer demand and ongoing expansion of retail stores [6][7]. - The company's revenue growth turned positive in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.25% for the first three quarters and a 7.52% increase in Q3 alone [6]. - The traditional business revenue decline has narrowed, with Q3 2025 traditional business revenue at 2.542 billion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year, while KOLIP revenue grew by 17.3% to 3.562 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company’s profitability showed slight fluctuations, with a net profit margin of 6.00% in Q3 2025, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 23.351 billion yuan in 2023 to 29.595 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.527 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.707 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 9.8% [2][8]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 16.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [2][9]. Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 20.8% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2027, reflecting a decrease in profitability efficiency [9]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to improve from 45.5% in 2023 to 39.4% in 2027, indicating better financial stability [9]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 18.9% in 2023 to 19.4% in 2027 [9].

Core Insights - Micro-variety shows are becoming a favored marketing tool for brands and short video platforms, moving from traditional advertising to content co-creation [1][3][4] - The rise of micro-variety shows is attributed to their ability to engage users in a fragmented attention economy, offering a new marketing strategy for brands [3][4][7] Brand Strategies - Brands like Haowang Water and China Life are launching custom micro-variety shows to enhance emotional connections and integrate product knowledge into entertaining formats [1][5][7] - The trend is shifting from sponsorship in traditional variety shows to brands taking a more active role in content creation, aiming for deeper engagement with target audiences [14][16][17] Market Trends - The overall number of variety shows has decreased by 11% year-on-year, with sponsorships down by 10%, leading brands to favor micro-variety shows due to lower costs and higher engagement potential [4][19] - Micro-variety shows typically last between 3 to 30 minutes, making them suitable for social media platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, where short, engaging content thrives [4][9] Content Types - Micro-variety shows can be categorized into four main types: derivative shows from popular formats, celebrity reality shows, original lifestyle content, and brand-customized shows [9][12] - These shows often address social issues and emotional themes, resonating with diverse audience segments [12][18] Marketing Evolution - The marketing approach is evolving from hard advertising to content co-creation, with brands integrating their narratives into the shows [14][20] - Brands are increasingly focusing on niche markets and specific themes, allowing for targeted engagement and community building [16][18] Engagement Strategies - Successful micro-variety shows leverage social media for broader reach and audience interaction, creating a stable content asset for brands [23] - The emphasis is on creating genuine, valuable content that resonates with users, moving away from overt promotional tactics [20][23]

Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 460 million yuan, a decline of 18.6% year-on-year [1] - The company's core traditional business revenue decreased by 7% after excluding related party transactions [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.56 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 240 million yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in Q2 was 180 million yuan, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year [1] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.4%, unchanged year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The total expense ratio for H1 2025 was 13.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The sales expense ratio increased due to the company's efforts to enhance market expansion and brand influence [1] - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 18.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin in Q2 was 4.3%, also down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Strategy and Product Performance - The company is enhancing its IP strategy to counteract the decline in traditional business [2] - In H1 2025, the company partnered with Tencent Video to launch co-branded products based on popular IPs [2] - The product line has expanded from stationery to include badges and standees, with distribution through nearly 70,000 traditional channels [2] - Revenue from various product categories in H1 2025 included: writing tools (1.14 billion yuan, -0.2%), student stationery (1.43 billion yuan, -8.5%), office stationery (1.61 billion yuan, -8.5%), office direct sales (6.13 billion yuan, +0.2%), and other products (480 million yuan, +6.8%) [2] - Gross margins for these categories were: writing tools (45.6%, +2.6 percentage points), student stationery (36.3%, +0.9 percentage points), office stationery (26%, +0.4 percentage points), office direct sales (6.9%, -0.2 percentage points), and other products (44.1%, -1.3 percentage points) [2] New Business Development - The company’s new business segments, particularly online and overseas sales, are experiencing rapid growth [3] - In H1 2025, the Morning Glory Life Museum (including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society) generated revenue of 780 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [3] - The Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society alone contributed 760 million yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year [3] - Morning Glory Keli Pu (B2B) achieved revenue of 6.13 billion yuan, a stable growth of 0.2% year-on-year [3] - Morning Glory Technology reported revenue of 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [3] - As of H1 2025, the company has 36 first-level partners and covers 1,200 cities with second and third-level partners and major clients [3] - Domestic and overseas main business revenues were 10.23 billion yuan and 560 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.1% and +15.9% [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.57 yuan, 1.75 yuan, and 1.94 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 19x, 17x, and 16x [3] - Given the solid fundamentals and promising prospects from IP empowerment and brand expansion, a target price of 40.25 yuan is set based on a 23x PE for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its product offerings through collaborations with popular IPs and innovative product designs, aiming to strengthen its market position in the stationery industry. Group 1: Product Development and Collaborations - The company has launched a nationwide event called "Dimension Collection Flash" in collaboration with popular anime IPs, featuring 21 events across 15 cities and new products in 40 flagship stores, 2,700 themed stores, and 20,000 specialty stores [1] - In 2025, the company introduced several IP-themed stationery products, including "Nezha" collaboration items and new products based on popular domestic animations like "Jian Lai" and "Xian Ni" [2] - The company continues to collaborate with various domestic and international IPs, including a 20th-anniversary special series with Miffy and products related to other popular characters [2][3] Group 2: Market Expansion and Internationalization - The company is pursuing international expansion through brand acquisitions and partnerships, having invested in brands like MARCO and CARIOCA, and establishing a strategic partnership with Japan's largest cultural retail chain, Tsutaya [4] - The company has opened stores in key locations in Indonesia, furthering its international presence [4] - The independent brand "Qi Zhi Hao Wan" achieved a profit of 9.42 million yuan in 2024, with stable revenue growth expected in 2025 [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit, projecting 1.54 billion yuan in 2025, 1.66 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.79 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 17, and 16 [4]