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爱奇艺(IQ):FY25Q3业绩点评:收入环比企稳,海外业务表现亮眼
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-19 13:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI is transforming content creation and consumption, with a strong growth in overseas business [3][10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.3 billion, 28.9 billion, and 29.9 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 6.6% in 2025, but a growth of 5.9% and 3.4% in the following years [27]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 0.9 billion, 1.04 billion, and 1.56 billion RMB, indicating a significant drop of 94.0% in 2025, followed by substantial recoveries in subsequent years [27]. Financial Summary - For FY25Q3, the company reported a revenue of 6.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [10][27]. - The gross margin was 18.2%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10][27]. - The adjusted operating profit was -0.22 billion RMB, with an adjusted operating profit margin of -0.3%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.4 percentage points [10][27]. - The adjusted net profit was -1.48 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of -2.2%, down 8.8 percentage points year-on-year [10][27]. Revenue Breakdown - Membership service revenue for FY25Q3 was 4.21 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.0% [10][27]. - Advertising revenue was 1.24 billion RMB, down 7.2% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter [10][27]. - Content distribution revenue and other business revenue were 640 million and 590 million RMB, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 20.8% and 19.7% [10][27]. Market Position - The company maintains the largest market share in the drama category as of FY25Q3 [10][27]. - The overseas business has shown strong growth, with the highest revenue and membership income growth in the past two years, particularly in Thailand [10][27].