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宝城期货橡胶早报-20250828
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures markets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term, with bearish factors dominating [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile; intraday, it is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic production areas are also increasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. At the same time, the inventory of the domestic tire industry has decreased, the operating load has dropped, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures closed down 0.38% to 15,840 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile; intraday, it is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The market is mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has seen a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and a slowdown in export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures closed down 0.80% to 11,765 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7].