| CTERRE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度黄峪参考 发布日期:2025/ | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | 股指 | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好, 股指或继续偏 强运行。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 空间。 201 | | | 真金 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,金价短期料偏强运行。 | | | 白银 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,支撑贵金属,银价短期 或偏强运行。 | | | 국미 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | | | GD | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 价震荡运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面偏弱施压价格,但几内亚正值雨 | | | 国化品 | | 季,铝土 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围主导，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围主导，合成胶震荡偏强 | 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中。目前东南亚产区处在割 胶旺季，国内产区也持续释放新胶产量，供应压力处在偏高水平。叠加国内轮胎行业库存回落，开 工负荷降低，外销出口受阻，增速回落。随着美联储降息预期升温，宏观偏多氛围增强，本周一夜 盘国内沪胶期货 2601 合约维持震荡偏强的走势，期价略微收涨 0.41%至 15905 元/吨。预计本周二国 内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15905 | 265 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12785 | 270 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -105 | -5 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -30 | -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3115 | -5 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 132930 | 1723 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 57206 | 2876 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32531 | 3267 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7221 | 1111 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 178470 | ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空因素分歧，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空因素分歧，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market and synthetic rubber futures market are dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and both are expected to run weakly. The 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures and the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term: Volatile; Medium - term: Volatile; Intraday: Volatile and weak; Reference view: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. At the same time, the inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export sales have been blocked with a slowdown in growth. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 2.27% to 15,520 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term: Volatile; Medium - term: Volatile; Intraday: Volatile and weak; Reference view: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export sales have been blocked with a slowdown in growth. On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 3.92% to 11,400 yuan/ton [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic production areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. With the rubber market entering a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, the night session of the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract on Friday maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price up 0.25% to 15,820 yuan/ton. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. The domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. With the synthetic rubber market entering a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Friday maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price up 0.77% to 11,800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [7]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both沪胶 and合成胶, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillate", and the intraday view is "oscillate weakly", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 沪胶 (RU) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic沪胶 futures 2601 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.92% to 15,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the沪胶 futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [5] 合成胶 (BR) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.10% to 11,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile. Overall view is strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and the domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, the night - session of the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract on Tuesday maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.63% to 15,880 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [5] For Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile. Overall view is strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: After the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, the night - session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract on Tuesday maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.64% to 11,840 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and mid - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.10% to 15,670 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price of the 2509 contract rising slightly by 1.39% to 11,660 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].