Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, and stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite for the capital market, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound in the stock index [1]. - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior in the trading market lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper and aluminum prices face downward pressure. Alumina prices are supported but the upside is limited due to oversupply [1]. - Zinc and tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial silicon has supply resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction; polysilicon has strong energy - storage demand, weak power demand, and battery rush for exports [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking cycle. Their prices are mainly affected by cost support and are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Iron ore, ferrosilicon, and other products have weak short - term supply and demand, but are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass and soda ash prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking coal and coke may have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Oils may experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term due to reduced planting expectations and demand recovery; sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains such as corn and soybeans are expected to have short - term fluctuations, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long on soybeans [1]. - Pulp futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Hog prices are expected to fluctuate as production capacity needs further release [1]. - Energy products such as fuel oil, asphalt, and rubber are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [1]. - Chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene face supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Fertilizers such as urea and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors and domestic supply - demand situations [1]. - Plastics such as PE, PVC, and LPG are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The shipping market is affected by war emotions and has a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: External shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Multiple factors lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper prices have a risk of decline [1]. - Aluminum: The Middle East situation has not cooled down, and aluminum prices are under short - term pressure [1]. - Alumina: Rising energy prices, freight rates, and potential export quotas in Guinea support prices, but the oversupply pattern limits the upside [1]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Tin: Tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Prices may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but they may still fluctuate due to the Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and inventory is reduced [1]. - Polysilicon: Energy - storage demand is strong, power demand is weak, and there is a battery rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: In the de - stocking cycle, demand is average, and prices are mainly supported by cost and valuation [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: In the de - stocking cycle, inventory is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Positive arbitrage positions can be gradually entered [1]. - Iron Ore: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass: Prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass prices, affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking Coal: May have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Oils: May experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton: International cotton inventory is expected to tighten, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term [1]. - Sugar: Global sugar supply is abundant, and domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains: Corn prices may have a short - term correction, and soybean investors can wait for opportunities to go long [1]. - Pulp: Futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. - Fuel Oil: Affected by the Middle East situation, market sentiment is positive, and risk appetite is rising [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by the cost of crude oil, the impact is relatively weak in the energy sector [1]. - Rubber: Supported by cost, commodity market sentiment is positive, and the futures - spot price difference is large [1]. - BR Rubber: Prices rise due to supply shortages, and the downstream negative feedback is gradually realized [1]. - PTA: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the polyester industry chain may face production decline [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the shortage of raw materials, prices rise [1]. - Short - Fibre: Prices follow cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: Supply is tight, and non - integrated producers' profits are inverted [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, and prices are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, domestic supply is abundant [1]. - PE: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fundamentals are weak [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are optimistic due to capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: The price is affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a differentiation between the domestic and international markets [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping on European Routes: Affected by war emotions, there is a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Investors are advised to be cautious and control their positions. However, after a significant market decline, the probability of policy support has increased. Attention should be paid to the domestic factors' support for the stock index this week [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Due to the tense Middle East situation and rising market risk - aversion sentiment, copper and aluminum prices are under pressure, and zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector. Nickel prices may fluctuate widely, and stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. Precious metals and platinum - palladium prices are affected by the Middle East situation and may continue to be volatile [1]. - For industrial silicon, there are factors such as supply - side resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon and lithium carbonate, there are issues related to supply and demand and market sentiment [1]. - In the black metal sector, steel products such as rebar and iron ore are in a state of supply - demand balance or weakness, with prices mainly affected by cost support and inventory pressure. Coke and coking coal are affected by the war situation, and their prices may fluctuate [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium - long term with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting. Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Corn, soybean meal, and other products are affected by supply - demand and policy factors [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are affected by the Middle East situation, including oil, fuel oil, asphalt, plastics, and rubber. Some products are facing supply shortages, and others are affected by cost and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: Expected to continue weak in the short - term, with increased probability of policy support after a sharp decline. Focus on domestic factors' support this week [1]. - **Bonds**: Oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, monetary policy expectations, and profit - taking [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of decline due to the tense Middle East situation and rising risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured down by the Middle East situation and market sentiment, while alumina may be affected by Guinea's policy but the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [1]. - **Zinc and Tin**: Follow the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector and are advised to wait and see due to the high uncertainty of the Middle East situation [1]. - **Nickel**: May fluctuate widely, affected by the supply situation in Indonesia and macro - sentiment. Short - term operation is recommended, focusing on low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance. Short - term operation and low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Prices rebounded after Trump's remarks, but the Middle East situation is still uncertain, and the market may be disturbed [1]. - **Platinum - Palladium**: May stabilize and stop falling due to Trump's remarks, but the Middle East situation may still cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Facing supply - side resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon and Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by supply - demand and market sentiment factors such as storage demand, power demand, and battery exports [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: In a state of supply - demand balance and inventory reduction, with price driven by cost support. It is treated as an oscillating market [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the war situation, with a possible short - term sharp rise in coking coal, but the risk is high. Attention should be paid to the war development and timely exit from long positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the price is expected to rise in the medium - long term with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, the supply is loose, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - **Corn**: The price is supported by tight supply of surplus grain in the Northeast and strong downstream starch. Policy - induced callbacks are expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Still at a low historical level, sensitive to positive news. The medium - long - term upward drive depends on planting - season weather. It is recommended to wait for callbacks to arrange long positions in far - month contracts [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The "strong expectation" logic may be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to oil price uncertainty [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation is strong, and some refineries in Northeast Asia are facing supply shortages [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Middle East situation, with concerns about supply interruption and a positive market sentiment [1]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by the cost of crude oil, but the impact is relatively weak among energy products [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price has risen significantly and may continue to rise due to factors such as raw material shortages, cost support, and inventory reduction expectations [1]. - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the supply - side risk is significant, and the polyester industry chain may face production decline in April [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, there is a shortage of supply, and the production of related devices has decreased [1]. - **Styrene**: Facing supply shortages of ethylene and benzene, and non - integrated producers' profits are seriously inverted [1]. - **Urea**: The upward space is limited by weak domestic demand, and there is support from cost and anti - inversion [1]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, but the domestic supply is high and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - **PVC**: The future expectation is optimistic due to capacity reduction and geopolitical factors, but the current market sentiment has cooled [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the internal and external markets [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping on European Routes)**: Affected by the war situation, the market is excited, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2605) and synthetic rubber futures (BR 2605) will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday, March 24, 2026. The short - term view for Shanghai rubber is volatile, and the medium - term view is also volatile; for synthetic rubber, the short - term and medium - term views are both volatile and slightly stronger [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Reference view: volatile and slightly stronger [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The intensification of the US - Iran conflict has led to a strong international crude oil price, which boosts domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. Although Trump's peace - talk signal was refuted by Iran, and the international crude oil futures have adjusted, with market divergence, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a volatile and slightly rising trend in the overnight session on Monday, and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger on Tuesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile and slightly stronger; Medium - term: volatile and slightly stronger; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Reference view: volatile and slightly stronger [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the US - Iran conflict affects international crude oil prices, which in turn impacts domestic energy - chemical commodity futures. The synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and slightly falling trend in the overnight session on Monday, and are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger on Tuesday [7].

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, styrene, PE, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Macro finance, treasury bonds, copper, aluminum oxide, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, precious metals, platinum and palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, black metals, soda ash, coke, coking coal, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - The Middle East conflict continues to impact the market, causing uncertainty in the global capital market and affecting the prices of various commodities [1] - The stock index is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and is likely to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external inflationary pressures ease and market risk appetite recovers [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand relationships, and policy changes, and most of them are in an oscillating state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating, and long positions can be considered in the medium to long term using the discount advantage of stock index futures, while controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds are oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior of trading desks [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation and the increase in market risk aversion [1] - Aluminum in the non-ferrous sector is a multi-allocation variety due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1] - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the implementation plan is unclear and supply remains in excess [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating due to concerns about short-term zinc ore supply and inflation risks [1] - Nickel prices may oscillate due to supply tightness in Indonesia and macro sentiment fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for low-buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch for low-buying opportunities [1] - Tin prices are affected by the macro environment and are highly volatile in the short term [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term as the Middle East geopolitical situation has not been resolved and oil prices may still affect the precious metals market [1] - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to remain oscillating, and the driving force depends on the clarification of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1] Black Metals - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for the next entry opportunity after taking profits on long basis positions [1] - Iron ore prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost, and are oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon prices are oscillating, with short-term supply and demand remaining weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost providing positive factors [1] - Black metals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, with expectations of supply reduction increasing, and cost support due to rising energy prices [1] - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the short term due to geopolitical conflicts and are expected to be more relaxed in the medium term [1] - Coke prices are oscillating, and the coking profit has been repaired, but the market is highly uncertain and depends on geopolitical changes [1] - Coking coal prices have the same logic as coke [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish due to the tight supply and demand situation in the international market [1] - Soybean oil is expected to rise following the market, and can be considered for short allocation in the oil varieties for hedging [1] - Rapeseed oil is bullish in the short term due to potential positive factors from the US biodiesel policy [1] - Cotton prices are expected to gradually rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area is reduced [1] - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal strong and external weak pattern continuing [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to continue oscillating at a high level, with limited downward space in the short term but facing constraints from alternative supply and policy [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate more and are in an oscillating state, and it is recommended to pay attention to international situation changes and the USDA planting intention report [1] - Pulp futures are oscillating in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term [1] - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and watch [1] - Live pig prices are oscillating as demand support and production capacity need further release [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical factors [1] - Fuel oil prices are affected by the Middle East situation and are oscillating [1] - Asphalt prices are relatively weakly affected in the energy sector, mainly due to the impact of crude oil price transmission [1] - Natural rubber prices are affected by the US-Iran situation, and the prices of BD and BR are rising [1] - BR rubber prices are expected to rise due to factors such as cost support and inventory reduction expectations [1] - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, with tight supply of PX and rapid downstream replenishment [1] - Ethylene glycol prices have risen rapidly due to raw material shortages [1] - Short fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1] - Benzene prices are rising due to multiple supply disturbances and strong market buying [1] - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disturbances and tight spot supply [1] - Urea prices have limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1] - Methanol prices are affected by the Iranian situation, with high domestic production and inventory [1] - PE prices are affected by geopolitical factors and have a weak fundamental situation [1] - PVC prices are expected to be optimistic in the future due to capacity clearance and raw material shortages [1] - LPG prices are showing a divergence between the internal and external markets, with the FEI - PG showing a背离 [1] Other - Container shipping on the European route is affected by the war situation and the re - takeover of the Red Sea by the Houthi armed forces, and the price increase is generally stable [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区 has entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. The bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continue to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses are destocking, and the total inventory has a slight increase in accumulation. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber is showing a decreasing trend. The synthetic rubber is strengthening, and after the Spring Festival, tire enterprises resume production, increasing the buying of natural rubber, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period [2]. - The domestic tire enterprise operating rate has significantly rebounded week - on - week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle East still exists, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 17,180 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,720 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, and the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is 110 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143,610 lots, a decrease of 3,973 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 67,414 lots, a decrease of 41,472 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is 1,284 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 1,049 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 120,540 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 49,795 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 17,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,045 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 17,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 3.05 million tons, and that of mixed rubber is 19.93 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 36.73%, and that of semi - steel tires is 65.9%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,968,000 pieces, an increase of 129,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,271,000 pieces, a decrease of 15,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.24%, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.82%, a decrease of 0.31%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is - 1.42%, and that of at - the - money put options is 31.03%, a decrease of 1.42% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2]. - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory is 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory is 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao for natural rubber decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [2]. - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.33 percentage points [2].