期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（1 月 5 日）A 股喜迎 2026 开门红，沪指 12 连阳，重新站上 4000 点大关。截止收盘， 沪指涨 1.38%，收报 4023.42 点；深证成指涨 2.24%，收报 13828.63 点；创业板指涨 2.85%，收报 3294.55 点。 沪深两市成交额达到 25675 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量 5016 亿。 【郑糖】受美糖走低与现货报价下调等因素影响郑糖 2605 月合约早盘震荡下跌，后受股市大幅走高提振资 金作用期价震荡回升收盘小涨。夜盘，郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。一项大宗商品研究结果显 示，预计泰国 2025/26 年度甘蔗产量为 9,300 万吨，预估区间介于 7,800–10,800 万吨。（数据来源：文华综合） 【胶】因东南亚产胶旺季进入下半场现货供应压力降逐渐减轻，加之委内瑞拉政局动荡影响东南亚现货报价 震荡走高，受此提振资金作用沪胶周一震荡上行。夜盘，受资金作用沪胶震荡小幅走高。最新数据显示，2025 年前 11 个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The performance of overseas markets was strong during the holiday, but the geopolitical situation change on Saturday increased the uncertainty of the post - holiday risk - asset trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets [1] Group 2: Fixed - Income Market - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, and the premium of US copper persists, so the copper price has further increased. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk, though the trend is expected to remain unchanged [1] Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. But with positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of the expected tight supply of aluminum ingots, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [1] Alumina - The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the weak industry pressures the price. But the current price is basically near the cost line, so the price is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, the cost center has shifted up, and recent negative factors have basically materialized. Market sentiment is volatile, and the zinc price fluctuates [1] Nickel - The macro sentiment has warmed up. News about Indonesia has further boosted market concerns about nickel - ore supply. The global nickel - inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly recently with increased positions. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policies and macro sentiment. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and excessive chasing of highs should be avoided [1] Stainless Steel - The raw - material nickel - iron price has rebounded, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The short - term stainless - steel futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] Tin - The non - ferrous tin industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to the normal range, pressuring the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there may be further fermentation of tin supply. After a short - term adjustment, the downside space is limited, and low - buying opportunities near the support level are recommended [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and New Energy Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is tense, and precious - metal prices are still supported, but the VIX of Shanghai silver is still high, and there may still be short - term games. In the long run, the logic of precious metals remains unchanged. Based on the fact that silver may no longer be undervalued compared with gold, priority should be given to low - buying gold in the future [1] Platinum and Palladium - During the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly, which is expected to boost domestic prices. But in the short term, they may still have high volatility. In the medium - to - long term, there is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Platinum can be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] Industrial Silicon - In the northwest, production increases, while in the southwest, it decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December. A capacity storage platform company has been established, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. Terminal installations increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. Short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] Lithium Carbonate - It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption, and there is a short - term rapid increase. Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Group 5: Steel and Iron - Related Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Iron Ore - The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] Ferrous Metals (General) - There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. In reality, direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure. In expectation, energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may disrupt supply [1] Group 6: Building Materials Glass - The supply and demand are supported, the valuation is low, and there are renewed supply disruptions. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [1] Soda Ash - It follows the trend of glass. The supply and demand are acceptable, the valuation is low, the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and fluctuate [1] Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of spot price cuts has started. After the futures price fell to the level of the fourth - round cut and then rebounded, attention should be paid to whether the futures price can reach a new low during the period from the price - cut announcement to implementation. If the price - cut negative factors cannot drive continuous decline, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate widely [1] Group 7: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The MPOB December data is expected to be negative for palm oil, but it will reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the oil price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1] Soybean Oil - It follows the trend of other oils in the short term. Waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1] Rapeseed Oil - Recent news has brought a large rebound to the rapeseed - oil price and the January - May spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent marginal loosening of the fundamentals. A rebound in sentiment is expected to subside, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1] Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1] Sugar - Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support below is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] Corn - The progress of grassroots grain sales of corn is relatively fast. Currently, the inventory levels at ports and downstream are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. It is expected that the spot price will remain strong in the short term under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches, and the futures price is expected to have limited回调 and remain strong and fluctuate later [1] Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA report and the manifestation of Brazil's harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported - soybean cargo rights will bring a domestic supply - structure problem, which supports the M03 contract. The M03 - M05 spread is still expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in customs policies, imported - soybean auctions, and targeted policies [1] Pulp - Pulp futures have recently been pulled by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, with large fluctuations. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended, and a January - May reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered for the spread [1] Logs - Log futures have declined due to the decline in overseas quotes and spot prices. The pressure on the 01 contract is large as it approaches the delivery month, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Hogs - The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold weight of slaughtered hogs still remaining, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the conflict between the US and Venezuela. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, there are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operation rate have weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production, further intensifying the supply - demand surplus, and the market expectation is weak [1] Fuel Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports [1] Asphalt - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma - Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] Natural Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the basis is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] BR Rubber - The futures positions have decreased, and the price increase has slowed down. The listing prices of BD/BR have shifted up, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered. Butadiene rubber maintains high - operation and high - inventory operation, and the spot trading has weakened with general order demand [1] PTA - The PX price is strong, and the floating spread has strengthened. The PTA plants generally maintain a high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Polyester pre - holiday stock - building and sales have improved. The new polyester plants' commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high [1] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - It is reported that two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to shut down next month due to poor efficiency. During the continuous decline of ethylene glycol, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. Currently, the downstream operation rate of polyester remains above 91%, the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations, and the recent overall polyester sales are relatively high [1] Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - The Asian styrene price rebounded briefly after continuous monthly declines, mainly driven by supply - side contraction. Many plants have reduced production or shut down due to maintenance or poor economics. The demand for polymer downstream products such as PS and ABS remains weak. The warming of the commodity - market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] Urea - The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] PE - There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is high, the crude - oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the US - Venezuela conflict [1] PVC - In 2026, there will be less global new production, and the future expectation is optimistic. There will be fewer subsequent maintenance activities, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are poor [1] LPG - The January CP has risen more than expected, providing strong cost - side support for imported gas. The geopolitical conflicts between the US and Venezuela and in the Middle East have intensified, and the short - term risk premium has increased. The EIA weekly C3 inventory has continued to accumulate, and overseas demand has slowed down periodically. Domestic PDH maintains high - operation and deep - loss operation, with only the rigid demand for civil combustion, and there is overseas olefin - blending demand for oil [1] Group 9: Shipping Container Shipping (European Route) - The price increase in December did not meet expectations, the expectation of peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock range and expected to remain strong in the short - term. The bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Different commodities in various industries show different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: The stock index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short - term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: There has been inventory accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum recently, with limited industrial drivers. However, due to positive macro sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. Alumina has rebounded from an oversold position, and the policy's sustainability should be monitored [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With the improvement of market risk appetite, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has warmed up. Indonesia's nickel ore premium in December remained stable. The planned RKAB nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be reduced to 2.5 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 34%), and nickel - associated minerals will be priced. The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently, and the short - term nickel price may be strong. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will remain in an oversupply situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The market sentiment is high. Silver has accelerated its upward movement, and gold has risen steadily. The gold - silver ratio has fallen to the lowest level since 2013. The short - term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly last Friday, which is expected to drive up the domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices of platinum and palladium have a large premium over the spot and overseas prices, so investors are advised to participate rationally [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the energy storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price has accelerated its rise in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of the futures - spot spread and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand has weakened, the supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the official announcement of the steel export licensing system, the coking coal and coke prices rebounded quickly after opening lower, showing signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data has improved, but it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the production areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious speculation driver in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - month and weak far - month contracts [1]. - **Corn**: The progress of farmers' grain sales at the grass - roots level is relatively fast, and the inventory levels of ports and downstream are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is affected by the same factors as crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of a fundamentally loose supply. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, and the inventory has no pressure. The PG futures price has maintained a range - bound movement after a supplementary decline [1].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually returning, and stock index futures are expected to oscillate and rebound. However, further breakthroughs require volume support, and market sentiment is expected to turn cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly moving in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - With the improvement of market risk appetite, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel in the non - ferrous metal sector are expected to be strong in the short term, while the long - term pattern of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged [1]. - Gold prices may remain strong in the short term, but the strong GDP growth in the third quarter of the United States weakens the expectation of interest rate cuts, so volatility risks need to be vigilant. Silver, platinum, and palladium are still favored by macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors, but short - term volatility risks also exist [1]. - For the black sector, after the release of negative news, coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage and replenishment [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and other products are under pressure, while the cotton market is currently in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of PTA are expected to be strong, while the prices of ethylene glycol, PVC, and other products are under pressure due to factors such as supply and demand and cost [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Oscillate and rebound in the short term, but further breakthroughs require volume support, and mainly move in an oscillatory manner by the end of the year [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: With the improvement of market risk appetite, prices are strong [1]. - Aluminum: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals improve, cost center rises, and prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Nickel: Although global inventory is high, due to supply concerns and Indonesian policies, prices may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel [1]. - Stainless steel: With the improvement of raw material nickel prices, futures prices continue to rebound, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry's initiative, prices oscillate and weaken in the short term, but low - buying opportunities can be considered [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Prices reach a new high and may remain strong in the short term, but volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Silver: Macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks exist [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May maintain a long - position pattern in the short term, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. Black sector - Steel products: After the release of negative news, coal and coke show signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to winter storage and replenishment [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, while far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Silicon iron: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are supported, valuation is low, and prices fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downward space and may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: High - frequency data improves, but the origin is expected to be loose, and rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - Soybean oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, prices are weak [1]. - Cotton: The market is in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Wheat and corn: Market supply and demand tension eases, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and there is备货 demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the futures price [1]. - Soybeans: US soybeans are weak, Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and domestic futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and chemical sector - Crude oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions, prices oscillate [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, profit is high, and prices oscillate [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, with a possible trend of inventory accumulation [1]. - PTA: PX prices are strong, polyester production and sales improve, and prices are expected to be strong [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Prices fall due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1]. - Styrene: Cost is slightly supported, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is cost support [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and prices oscillate in a range [1]. - Caustic soda: Some production delays, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in Shandong [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (PG): After a price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1]. Other - Container shipping on the European route: The price increase in December fails to meet expectations, the peak - season price increase is pre - priced, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively loose [1].