| | | | | 西新榨季制糖比,从而使得产糖量超预期。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 玉米 | | 短期政策性谷物投放预期和麦玉价差偏低对玉米市场带来利空影 响,关注投放量和投放价格,预期盘面偏震荡,建议观望。新季 | | | | | | 种植成本下移,远月C01建议关注逢高做空机会。 | | | | | | 国内累库压力下,基差和近月盘面表现预期承压。美豆供需平衡 | | | | 日期 | | 表存趋紧预期,若中美贸易政策不变,四季度豆粕存去库预期, | | | | | | 远月合约预期重心抬升;若达成协议,预期美豆上涨贴水下跌, | | | | | | 整体盘面下跌空间预期有限。 | | | | | | 纸浆外盘报价下降,发运量增加,国内需求清淡,目前估值偏 | | | | | | 代. 同时存在宏观利好。 | | | | 原不 | 看否 | 原木当前处于淡季,在外盘上涨的情况下供应下降有限,偏弱看 守。 | | | | | | 生猪存栏持续修复背景下,出栏体重持续增加。盘面存栏宽裕预 | | | | 丰信 | | 期较明显,贴水现货较多。短期现货受出 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 11 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（7 月 10 日） A 股三大指数集体上涨，沪指站上 3500 点关口。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.48%， 收报 3509.68 点；深证成指涨 0.47%，收报 10631.13 点；创业板指涨 0.22%，收报 2189.58 点。沪深两市成交额 达到 14942 亿，较昨日小幅缩量 110 亿。 【郑糖】因市场预计巴西中南部地区 6 月下半月糖产量或会下降影响美糖周三震荡上升。受美糖走高与现货 报价上调等因素支持郑糖 2509 月合约周四震荡上行。因短线涨幅较大受技术面影响郑糖 2509 月合约夜盘震荡休 整。印度糖和生物能源制造商协会（ISMA）总干事 Deepak Ballani 表示，在作物面积和单产增加的推动下，预 计即将到来的 2025-26 年度糖产量将大幅增加，特别是在马哈拉施特拉邦和卡纳塔克邦等主要产糖邦。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 10 日震荡强势，收盘 4010.02，环比上涨 18.62。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 10 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1501.6，环比上涨 50. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 7 月 10 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围支撑 能化维持强势 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 14405 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收涨 2.86%至 14405 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小至 870 元/吨。由于国内宏观氛围增强并盖过胶市供需结构偏弱格局，叠加上 半年国内新车产销数据好于预期。在积极因素支撑下，预计后市国内 沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强格局运行。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（7 月 9 日）A 股三大指数冲高回落，沪指 3500 点得而复失。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.13%， 收报 3493.05 点；深证成指跌 0.06%，收报 10581.80 点；创业板指涨 0.16%，收报 2184.67 点。沪深两市成交额 达到 15052 亿，较昨日放量 512 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 9 日强势整理，收盘 3991.40，环比下跌 7.05。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 9 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1461.4，环比上涨 33.1。 7 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 882.8 元，环比上涨 29.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦化有提涨预期，利润微薄，焦化日产较年内高位持续回落。焦炭整体库存持续下降，贸易商采购意 愿稍有改善，钢厂采购也略有改善。整体来看，碳元素供应端仍较充裕，下游铁水淡季仍保持较高水平，"反内 卷"目前对焦炭行业影响有限。 焦煤：炼焦煤矿产量开始回升，随着安全生产月的结束，前期减停产煤矿有复产动作。现货竞拍成交市场有 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 7 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 多空分歧仍在 能化涨跌互现 橡胶甲醇原油 | 日报 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 14045 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.39%至 14045 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大至 875 元/吨。东南亚和国内天胶产区处在全面开割状态，国内下游终端车市 步入消费淡季，轮胎采购节奏放缓，产量或出现萎缩。在多空分歧的 背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2509 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（7 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体走强，沪指再度向 3500 点发起冲击。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.70%，收报 3497.48 点；深证成指涨 1.46%，收报 10588.39 点；创业板指涨 2.39%，收报 2181.08 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 14539 亿，较昨日放量 2453 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 8 日震荡趋强，收盘 3998.45，环比上涨 33.28。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 8 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1431.5，环比上涨 2.8。 7 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 856.9 元，环比上涨 7.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：因现货焦煤涨价，部分焦化厂亏损减产，焦炭供应压力缓和。短期来看，多数焦化厂能保持微利，焦 炭开工率大幅下滑的可能性低。需求，下游钢厂盈利稳定，因部分地区环保限产，本周铁水产量下滑，钢厂仅维 持刚需采购，市场传言下周焦炭一轮提涨，钢厂对此较为抵触，提涨落地难度较大。 焦煤：前期停产的煤矿陆续复产，焦煤产量边际 ...