Morning session notice 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 分品种观点详述 评级预测说明："+"表示：当日收盘价>上日收盘价；"-"表示：当日收盘价<上日收盘价。 数字代表当日涨跌幅度范围（以主力合约收盘价计算）。0.5 表示：0≤当日涨跌幅<0.5%；1 表示：0.5%≤当日涨跌幅<1%；2 表示：1%≤当日涨跌幅<2%；3 表示：2%≤当日涨跌幅<3%； 4 表示：3%≤当日涨跌幅<4%；5 表示：4%≤当日涨跌幅。评级仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 议。 重要事项: 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 评级预 测 | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 天 胶 震 荡偏强 20 号 胶 震 荡 偏 合 成 胶 震 荡 偏 | 【行情复盘】 截至 02 月 27 日： RU 主力合约收盘价为 17155 元/吨，日涨幅 0.18%。 NR 主力合 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：春节长假期间，海外天然橡胶市场偏强运行，日胶与泰国原料 ...

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：春节长假期间，海外天然橡胶市场偏强运行，日胶与泰 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-24 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶强势运行 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：春节长假期间，日本东京胶累计涨幅达 2.13%，新加坡 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply of the domestic and foreign natural rubber markets tends to decline, while the operating load of domestic tire enterprises further decreases, showing weak demand. Social inventory pressure is difficult to relieve and will continue the inventory accumulation trend. The Shanghai rubber futures may continue the narrow - range oscillatory mode. Three key variables need attention: the recovery rhythm of the rubber - tapping peak season in Southeast Asia, the subsequent changes in EU trade policies, and the implementation effect of domestic automobile consumption stimulus policies. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The demand side enters the typical pre - festival off - season. The downstream tire and rubber product enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, with a rapid decline in the operating rate and a low purchasing willingness. The orders in the all - steel tire and semi - steel tire markets are weak, and the demand related to logistics and infrastructure has not recovered. Terminal consumption shows a seasonal contraction, and the market lacks rigid demand support. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the domestic synthetic rubber futures on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [6].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东南亚 产区也将迎来低产季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。随着 能 ...

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏空情绪消化，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏空情绪消化，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-05 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector: Neutral [1] - Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market: External market ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, with strong Indian sugar - making data pressuring prices. Some institutions are reducing sugar production forecasts for 2026/27, which may support long - term prices. The domestic sugar market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the short - term lacks fundamental and external market guidance [1]. - Rubber market: Natural rubber declined due to the overall fall of commodities, with upstream raw materials providing support and downstream tire enterprises' holidays dragging down capacity utilization. The long - term outlook is bullish. Synthetic rubber's cost - side support is limited, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar 3.1.1 Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5207 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.78%, and 5197 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5222 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.80%, and 5212 yuan/ton at night [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Guangxi's spot sugar price was 5252 yuan/ton yesterday, down 41 yuan/ton; sugar - making groups' quotes in Guangxi and Yunnan were adjusted down, and some processing sugar mills' quotes were also lowered [1]. - Stonex expects Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 4070 tons, 80 tons less than the previous forecast, and ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 400 million liters more than before [1]. - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, up 18.35% year - on - year, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 [1]. - Green Pool expects the global sugar surplus in the 2026/27 season to drop to 156,000 tons [1]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 50 to 14,069 yesterday [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, pressured by strong Indian data, but production cuts may support long - term prices. - Domestic market: Zheng sugar declined yesterday and was weak at night. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is ending, and the market lacks guidance [1]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the 5100 - 5300 range, with partial profit - taking for previous short positions and a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy [1]. Rubber Series 3.2.1 Market Quotes - As of February 2, RU2605 closed at 15,980 yuan/ton, down 2.32%; NR2603 closed at 12,925 yuan/ton, down 2.34%; BR2603 closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, down 3.66% [4]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.1 baht/kg, and cup - lump price was 53.5 baht/kg yesterday [4]. - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.23%, with保税区 inventory up 3.34% and general trade inventory up 0.82% [4]. - Yesterday's full - latex price was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 2.17%; 20 - standard Thai rubber was 1925 US dollars/ton, down 1.79% [4]. - The price difference between RU and NR narrowed, as did the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU [4]. - Yesterday's butadiene prices in Shandong and East China were in certain ranges, and the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong declined [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: Affected by the overall fall of commodities, it is supported by upstream raw materials but dragged down by downstream tire enterprises' holidays. The long - term outlook is bullish [4]. - Synthetic rubber: Short - term supply supports the market, but the acceptance of new supplies by downstream is average, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Rubber series should focus on the lower support. Those not in the market can enter lightly after the adjustment [4].