1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to focus on low - buying opportunities. The ru2605 contract has limited downside space and is supported at the price of 16,200. In the long - and medium - term, the price center is expected to move up slightly under the background of strong supply - demand, but the overall increase is relatively limited [3][6]. - Different market participants are given corresponding trading strategies. For example, investors can sell call options for covered strategies and buy put options to hedge against downside risks; traders and end - customers can take different actions according to their inventory and procurement situations [3]. - Key data to be monitored include domestic rubber import data, domestic natural rubber inventory changes, tapping conditions and raw material prices in major domestic and foreign producing areas, macro - policy changes, and related rubber price performances [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 RU Industry Structure - Capacity Structure: The upstream raw materials of natural rubber come from rubber trees. The main producing areas are in Southeast Asia, Africa, and in China, Yunnan and Hainan. In 2002, the main supplying countries were Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cote d'Ivoire [10]. - Demand Structure: The downstream demand is mainly for tires, accounting for about 80%, and commercial vehicle demand has a relatively large proportion [10]. 3.2 Market Review - In March, the natural rubber price oscillated. Affected by geopolitical factors, Middle East orders decreased, but the strong synthetic rubber price led to substitution demand, resulting in a basic balance of demand [13]. 3.3 Price Changes - Spread: The main RU contracts are 1, 5, and 9 contracts, with the current main contract being RU2605. The RU5 - 9 inter - monthly structure has changed to contango [18]. - Basis: The delivery products of the RU futures contract are ISS3 and SCR WF. Since RSS3 has better quality than SCR WF, there is a premium. In actual delivery, it is basically SCR TF. The full - latex basis of SCR TF and the non - standard basis of mixed rubber are the focuses. The full - latex basis has been stable this month, currently around 05 - 250 to 300 yuan/ton [18]. - Foreign Futures Prices: The report shows the price trends of Singapore rubber TSR20 (FOB) and Tokyo rubber RSS3 [45][47]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The spread between full - latex and Vietnamese 3L is worthy of attention because they can be completely substituted in downstream use [50]. 3.4 Supply - Main Producing Areas Supply: The global natural rubber production is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. According to the ANRPG report in January 2026, global natural rubber production increased by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons in January, and consumption increased by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons. In 2026, global production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons [54]. - China's Import Situation: In February 2026, China's natural rubber import volume was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February was 1.1065 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36% [60]. - Specific Producing Areas: In February 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports to the world were 415,000 tons, and exports to China were 268,600 tons. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in February were 76,200 tons, and imports were 115,900 tons. Hainan has not started tapping, while in Yunnan, the weather is generally good, with fresh glue gradually increasing in output, and the glue purchase price is between 14.3 - 14.8 yuan/kg [74][76][79]. 3.5 Demand - Tire Industry Start - up: At the end of the month, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [87]. - Tire Inventory: The inventory situation of tire production enterprises is important for understanding the start - up rate and terminal demand [91]. - Supporting Market: The supporting market is mainly used for the tires of newly - produced passenger and commercial vehicles. The report shows relevant data on automobile production and sales [96]. - Replacement Market: The report shows data on highway freight turnover, China's logistics industry prosperity index, and highway logistics freight rate index, which are related to the replacement demand for tires [105]. - Export Market: The report shows the export volume data of semi - steel tires, full - steel tires, and new pneumatic rubber tires [117]. 3.6 Inventory - As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% [120][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand drive for natural rubber is weakening, but the strengthening of synthetic rubber limits the downside space and momentum of natural rubber. The price range of Shanghai rubber at the beginning of the year is raised to the range of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range on a single - side basis and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities such as going long on NR and short on RU, as well as going long on NR and short on mixed rubber [8][80] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, Shanghai rubber showed a trend of "rising first, then falling, and oscillating downward", with the price center gradually moving down. The core contradiction shifted from tight supply to an expectation of loose supply. The main contract price fluctuated between 15,885 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton. In the early stage (January - February), it rebounded due to seasonal supply tightness, and in March, it declined as the supply was expected to increase [14][15] - The spread structure of Shanghai rubber RU2609 - RU2605 changed from near - month premium to near - month discount. The RU - NR spread first widened and then narrowed. Synthetic rubber BR changed from a large discount to a large premium over natural rubber [19] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The US - Iran war may drag down global economic growth. The conflict has led to a significant increase in oil and gas prices, with the INE crude oil price rising by over 58% from March 2nd to March 23rd, and the Brent crude oil spot price reaching a record high at the end of March. It is expected that the global oil supply will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March. The growth of major global economies is expected to slow down in 2026 [27][29] - Inflation pressure is transmitted through three channels, compressing the space for monetary policy easing. Central banks around the world face difficult choices, and there is a risk of recession or stagflation in the world economy [30][32][33] 3.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.3.1 Upstream Supply and Raw Materials - ANRPC predicts that in 2026, global natural rubber production will increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons. In Q2, domestic and overseas production areas will enter the tapping season. If there is no abnormal climate, the overall supply in the market is expected to increase, and the downward pressure on costs due to increased supply may become more obvious after Q2 [34][40] 3.3.2 Imports and Inventory - In 2026, the domestic import volume decreased slightly year - on - year. In February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.16%. As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was at a medium - to - high level, and it may enter a destocking process after Q2 [43][45] 3.3.3 Downstream Demand - In the first two months of 2026, the tire industry showed a "weak domestic demand, strong export, and structural differentiation" pattern. Tire exports increased by 12.1% year - on - year. The automobile market was "cold domestically, hot overseas, with overall pressure and structural differentiation". Exports were the core support, with a year - on - year increase of 48.4%. The heavy - truck market was "stable domestically, strong in exports, and with structural upgrading", with exports increasing by 30.98% year - on - year [51][53][56] 3.4 Cost - Profit and Spread Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - Profit Analysis - In Q1, the raw material prices of natural rubber in Thailand showed an upward trend, with the price of glue reaching a quarterly high of 76 Thai baht/kg in March. The processing profit of natural rubber in Thailand was under pressure, with STR20 standard rubber in continuous loss and RSS3 smoked sheet rubber remaining profitable [63][64][66] 3.4.2 Spot - Futures Spread Analysis - In Q1, the non - standard spot - futures spread of Shanghai rubber first widened and then narrowed. Due to the low number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of state reserve purchases, it is recommended to conduct phased trading in non - standard operations [70] 3.4.3 Disk Spread Analysis - The RU - NR spread first widened and then narrowed in Q1, and it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the RU - NR spread. The strengthening of synthetic rubber limits the downside space and momentum of natural rubber [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, the tire sales season arrives. With rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. However, there are concerns that the good sales in March may over - consume future demand, leading to a possible decline in April sales. [1][9] - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict may initially impede tire shipments, but if customers accept price increases, shipments may gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to short - term decreased demand and rising raw material prices. [2][14] - Facing the continuous rise in synthetic rubber prices, tire companies are considering measures such as raising tire prices, adjusting production formulas, and reducing production if losses occur. [2][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Enterprise Profiles - Tire manufacturer A: A global top 50 tire company with an annual production capacity of 8 million sets of all - steel radial tires and 30 million semi - steel tires. The current semi - steel and all - steel tire production rates are around 85%. There are expectations of production cuts from late March to early April. [4] - Tire manufacturer B: Specializes in high - performance all - steel and semi - steel radial tires and rubber conveyors. The annual production capacity of all - steel radial tires is 1.8 million sets, and that of semi - steel radial tires is 12 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production has been running well, with both production lines almost at full capacity. [5] - Tire manufacturer C: Uses advanced production technology to produce all - steel radial tires, with a production capacity of 2.4 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production quickly recovered to full capacity. In 2025, tire production and sales increased by about 10% compared to 2024. [5] - Tire manufacturer D: Has an annual all - steel tire production capacity of 2.2 million sets and a semi - steel tire production capacity of 12 million sets. Currently, the all - steel tire production is at full capacity, with smooth shipments and a 20 - day product inventory. The production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million sets to 2.6 - 2.8 million sets. [6] - Tire manufacturer E: Has two all - steel tire factories in China and one all - steel and one semi - steel tire factory in Vietnam. The total all - steel tire production capacity is about 11 million sets per year, planned to increase to 12 million sets. The semi - steel tire production capacity in the Vietnam factory is about 4 million sets per day. [6] - Tire dealer A: Specializes in all - steel tire wholesale, with a peak monthly sales volume of about 10,000 tires. It currently has an inventory of six to seven thousand tires. This month, shipments are fast, but next month, shipment pressure is expected to be high. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse B: Has a warehouse area of over 100,000 square meters, mainly storing mixed rubber, plastics, pulp, and agricultural products. The normal rubber inventory is about 100,000 tons. There are delivery warehouses for No. 20 rubber NR and synthetic BR. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse C: The warehouse park covers an area of 175,000 square meters with a total storage capacity of 240,000 tons. It has multiple functions including bonded, general trade, and futures delivery. The inventory includes various types of rubber. [8] 3.2 Current Production and Sales of Tire Companies - In March, due to rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. Except for shipments to the Middle - East, tire companies have had good sales since March. However, there are concerns about over - consuming future demand, and sales may decline in April. Currently, most tire companies have high production rates, over 80%, and some are at full capacity, with plans to further increase production this year. [1][9] 3.3 Current Spot Inventory of Rubber and Tires - Tire companies' rubber inventory levels vary, with some participating in futures hedging and some not. Synthetic rubber suppliers have defaulted due to rapid price increases. Tire companies' product inventory is lower than last year. In the first half of March, downstream purchases were concentrated, and tire manufacturers accelerated shipments. Qingdao Port's rubber inventory is unlikely to decrease significantly in March. Even if there is a decrease, it will be short - term. The warehouse is almost full, and while concentrated pick - ups by tire factories may lead to inventory reduction, the expected incoming goods are still substantial. Inventory reduction may occur in the second quarter. [2][12] 3.4 Demand and Consumption of Tires by New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of natural rubber used in new - energy vehicle tires increases. For semi - steel tires of pure - electric new - energy vehicles, the use of natural rubber increases by 6% - 7%, and for all - steel tires, it increases by 1% - 3%. New - energy vehicle tires wear 20% - 30% faster than fuel - powered vehicle tires, and the proportion of semi - steel tires is increasing. The unit price of new - energy vehicle tires is more than 15% higher than that of fuel - powered vehicle tires. New - energy commercial vehicles have great growth potential, mainly for short - distance transportation. [13] 3.5 Impact of the Middle - East Situation on Tire Sales in the Middle - East - If the Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues, tire shipments will initially be blocked. If customers accept price increases, shipments will gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April. In the short term, tire demand in the Middle - East will decrease, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to rising raw material prices. [2][14] 3.6 Countermeasures of Tire Companies Against Rising Raw Material Prices - Tire companies are considering the following countermeasures: passing on costs to downstream by raising tire prices, adjusting the tire production formula to reduce the proportion of expensive raw materials, and reducing production and production rates if losses occur. [2][15] 3.7 Industry Structure and Market Characteristics - The tire industry in China has a low concentration but is in the process of accelerating concentration. It shows the characteristics of a "large industry with small enterprises," with a competitive market. The top 10 tire companies account for less than half of the market share. Head - tier companies have a complete product line, scale effects, and are building overseas factories, while small and medium - sized companies face problems such as product homogenization, price competition, and high environmental and production costs. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2605) and synthetic rubber futures (BR 2605) will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday, March 24, 2026. The short - term view for Shanghai rubber is volatile, and the medium - term view is also volatile; for synthetic rubber, the short - term and medium - term views are both volatile and slightly stronger [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Reference view: volatile and slightly stronger [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The intensification of the US - Iran conflict has led to a strong international crude oil price, which boosts domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. Although Trump's peace - talk signal was refuted by Iran, and the international crude oil futures have adjusted, with market divergence, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a volatile and slightly rising trend in the overnight session on Monday, and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger on Tuesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile and slightly stronger; Medium - term: volatile and slightly stronger; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Reference view: volatile and slightly stronger [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the US - Iran conflict affects international crude oil prices, which in turn impacts domestic energy - chemical commodity futures. The synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and slightly falling trend in the overnight session on Monday, and are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary of the Natural Rubber Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - On Monday, the natural rubber futures stopped falling. The synthetic rubber hit the daily limit during the session and then declined overnight. The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. The early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area increases the expected supply pressure, suppressing the rubber price. However, the domestic production area is still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the Thai production area is also in the low - production season until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to accumulate, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side of all - steel tires has stable operation. The rubber price faces new supply pressure but is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. In the short term, the trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16145, 13055, and 17470 respectively, with price increases of 145, 190, and 1485, and increases of 0.91%, 1.48%, and 9.29% respectively. The trading volumes were 326382, 68099, and 493113 respectively, and the open interests were 116891, 58703, and 88892 respectively, with changes of +391, - 235, and +7771 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current values of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3090, - 1325, and - 4415 respectively, with changes of - 45, - 1340, and - 1295 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15900, 16000, and 16000 respectively, with increases of 0.63%, 0.63%, and 0.31% respectively. The prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 19600 with 0% increase. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15065 and 16125 respectively, with changes of - 0.36% and 1.26% respectively [2] - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 73.9, 58.92, and 75.5 respectively, with no change [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous strong performance of crude oil, driving the chemical products to trend stronger. The continuous rise of synthetic rubber supports the price of natural rubber. - Fundamentally, natural rubber is in a seasonally low - production stage. Domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and Thai production areas are also gradually stopping. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, is continuously increasing, and the short - term supply - side elasticity is weakening, with raw rubber prices remaining relatively firm. - On the demand side, there is expected support for post - holiday resumption of work. The start - up of all - steel tires is expected to be stable. Although there are expected impacts from geopolitical conflicts on tire exports to the Middle East, the strength of synthetic rubber limits the downward space of natural rubber. - The short - term disk is still affected by external shocks. With the external crude oil rising and then falling, the rubber price is expected to experience a short - term correction. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16,895, 13,610, and 15,725 respectively, with price increases of 60, 40, and 1,070, and price increase rates of 0.36%, 0.29%, and 7.30% respectively compared to the day before the previous day. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 607,728, 133,111, and 170,535 respectively. The open interests were 144,455, 65,473, and 63,716 respectively, with changes of - 5,268, - 424, and 626 respectively. - **Spread Changes**: The spreads of RU - NR, NR - BR, and RU - BR were 3,285, 1,170, and - 2,115 respectively, with changes of 20, - 1,010, and - 1,030 respectively compared to the previous values. - **Basis Changes**: The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU were - 145, - 1,195, and 2,855 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 135, - 1,335, and 2,815 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16,650, 16,750, and 16,750 yuan/ton respectively, with price increase rates of 1.29%, 0.30%, and 0.30% respectively. The current prices of smoke - sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 19,700 and 19,750 yuan/ton respectively, with a price increase rate of 0.51%. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15,700 and 16,625 yuan/ton respectively, with a price increase rate of 1.84%. - **Downstream in Thailand**: The current prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - lump, and Thai latex were 71.61, 58.35, and 69.5 baht/kg respectively, with price increase rates of 1.42%, - 1.03%, and 0.72% respectively. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the rubber price is expected to be strong due to the continuous strength of crude oil driving the chemical products to perform strongly under the influence of the recent geopolitical conflicts, and the continuous strengthening of synthetic rubber supporting the natural rubber price. The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - yield stage, with domestic and Thai production areas stopping production. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, is continuously increasing, and the supply - side elasticity is weakened in the short term. The raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side is expected to have support for the resumption of work after the festival, and the strong synthetic rubber limits the downward space of natural rubber [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16835, 13570, and 14655 respectively, with price increases of 280, 200, and 545, and price increase rates of 1.69%, 1.50%, and 3.86% respectively compared to the day before the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 231410, 55294, and 149809 respectively, and the open interests were 149723, 65897, and 63090 respectively. The open interests increased by 1942, 1369, and 6011 respectively [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 3265, 2180, and - 1085 respectively, with changes of 80, - 265, and - 345 compared to the previous values [2]. - **Basis Changes**: The current RU basis is - 135, and the basis of mixed - RU is - 1335, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU is 2815. Compared with the previous values, they changed by - 30, - 400, and - 30 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16600, 16700, and 16700 respectively, with price increase rates of 1.53%, 1.52%, and 1.83% respectively. The current prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19600 and 19650 respectively, with price increase rates of 1.03% and 1.29% respectively. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15500 and 16325 respectively, with price change rates of - 0.77% and 0.15% respectively [2]. - **Downstream Products**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex are 70.61, 58.53, and 69 (in Thai baht per kilogram) respectively, with price change rates of - 0.39%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year, with production increasing by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons and demand growing by 1.7% to 15.6 million tons. The prices are likely to remain firm. [35] - The cost support for rubber prices is obvious in the short - term, and the trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday. However, there are concerns about the weak export market of tires due to unstable trade environment. [83] - The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future. It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents the weekly - line trends of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber RU, NR, and synthetic rubber, as well as the spot price trends of whole - milk RU, Thai raw material acquisition prices, the spread trends between RU - NR and RU - BR, and the basis of synthetic rubber BR [6][9][11] 3.2 Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In 2026, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons, with Thailand's production remaining stable and India's production continuing to decline. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 16.7% year - on - year, and Thailand's exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao is increasing. [29][35][38] - **Demand - side**: In 2025, China's rubber tire production increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 3.6% year - on - year. In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in production year - on - year and a decrease in sales year - on - year. The export of automobiles continued to grow. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in January 2026 increased by 38.6% year - on - year. [49][52][60] - **Production and inventory of synthetic rubber**: In 2025, China's synthetic rubber production decreased by 20.3% year - on - year. [77] 3.3 Market Outlook - The overseas natural rubber production areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and the cost support for rubber prices is obvious. The trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday, but there are concerns about the weak tire export market. The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future, and it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: white sugar is rated as "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend", red dates as "Oscillating", natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber as "Oscillating" [1][4][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For white sugar, multiple international organizations are lowering the expected surplus of global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season due to India and Thailand's sugar - making performance and potential El Niño threats. The short - term technical trend of Zhengzhou sugar is strong, but there is still pressure above the main contract considering sufficient domestic supply and weak overseas raw sugar prices [1] - For red dates, the post - holiday downstream replenishment demand exists, but the supply suppresses the price. As the weather warms up, the weak demand for red dates will be more obvious. The overall supply - demand structure does not support continuous upward movement, and it is difficult to have a bottom - reversal market before the new growing season [4] - For natural rubber, it has fallen slightly from the high. The supply in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is in the off - season, while the post - holiday inventory accumulation in China continues and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It will be in an oscillating state in the short term. For synthetic rubber, the overseas geopolitical conflict is the main factor driving the upward movement, but the uncertainty of export and downstream transactions should be noted [5] Group 3: Summary by Product White Sugar - **Market Performance**: On March 5, 2026, the SR605 contract closed at 5330 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closed at 5352 yuan/ton; the SR609 contract closed at 5346 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closed at 5362 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi increased by 6 yuan/ton to 5315 yuan/ton, some sugar - making groups' quotes were adjusted up; in Yunnan, some quotes were also adjusted up; the processing sugar factory's quotes were flat. In the 2025/26 season, as of March 3, 2026, in India's Maharashtra state, 113 sugar mills had stopped production, and the cumulative sugar production was 950.31 million tons, an increase of about 178.05 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 billion tons, an increase of 2.625 billion tons year - on - year [1] - **Market Logic**: The fundamental and technical aspects show a strong trend, but there is pressure above the main contract [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the 5300 - 5430 activity range of the SR605 contract [1] Red Dates - **Market Performance**: On March 5, 2026, the CJ605 contract closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.93%; the CJ609 contract closed at 9290 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.70% [4] - **Important Information**: This week, the domestic red - date sample inventory was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The wholesale price of Hebei's special - grade red dates was 9.19 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market increased by 1 to 5 [4] - **Market Logic**: The supply suppresses the price, and it is difficult to have a bottom - reversal market before the new growing season [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the CJ605 contract when the price is high [4] Rubber Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of March 5, 2026, the RU main contract closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.11%; the NR main contract closed at 13,370 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.22% [5] - **Important Information**: On March 5, 2026, the price of Thai RSS3 was 70.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the field latex was 69 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the cup lump was 56.7 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht/kg. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 6.799 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons, an increase of 1.82% [5] - **Market Logic**: Supply in the off - season, post - holiday inventory accumulation in China, and weak terminal demand lead to short - term oscillation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [5] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of March 5, 2026, the BR main contract closed at 14,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.78% [5] - **Market Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the upward movement, but attention should be paid to export uncertainty and downstream transactions [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Holders of long BR positions can buy out - of - the - money put options to hedge, and be vigilant against the callback after the conflict eases [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Monday, synthetic rubber prices rose significantly, and natural rubber prices followed slightly. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term strength of crude oil has driven the chemical products to perform strongly. Synthetic rubber is expected to continue to strengthen, which will drive up the price of natural rubber. Fundamentally, natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. Domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and Thai production areas are also gradually stopping. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply elasticity is weakened. The raw rubber price is relatively firm. On the demand side, there is support for the resumption of production after the Spring Festival. The start - up of all - steel tires is expected to be stable, and the rubber price is expected to remain strong [2] Group 3: Summary of Market Data Futures Market - RU主力: The previous day's closing price was 17,245, up 90 from the day before yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.52%. The trading volume was 364,042, and the open interest was 170,621, a decrease of 3,594 [2] - NR主力: The previous day's closing price was 13,965, up 105 from the day before yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.76%. The trading volume was 62,794, and the open interest was 59,004, an increase of 4,284 [2] - BR主力: The previous day's closing price was 13,490, up 825 from the day before yesterday, with a daily increase of 6.51%. The trading volume was 126,676, and the open interest was 51,790, an increase of 38 [2] - Spreads: RU - NR was 3,280 (down 15), RU - BR was 3,755 (down 735), and NR - BR was 475 (down 720) [2] - Basis: RU basis was - 195 (compared with - 205 the day before), mixed - RU was - 1,390 (compared with - 1,300 the day before), and smoked sheet - RU was 2,155 (compared with 2,045 the day before) [2] Spot Market - Domestic whole - milk rubber: In Shandong, the price was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; in Shanghai, it was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; in Kunming, it was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2] - Smoked sheet rubber: In Shandong and Shanghai, the price was 19,400 yuan/ton, up 1.04% [2] - Mixed rubber: In Qingdao, the price was 15,855 yuan/ton, with no change; in Yunnan, it was 16,550 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [2] Downstream Market - Thai smoked sheet: The price was 72.29 baht/kg, up 0.39% [2] - Thai cup lump: The price was 57.87 baht/kg, with no change [2] - Thai latex: The price was 68.8 baht/kg, up 0.73% [2]