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中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评:关税缓和出口汇率趋升,提振内需迎来关键机遇
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 13:37
Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The US has agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with 91% of tariffs from two specific executive orders set to be eliminated[2] - A 34% tariff on certain goods will see a 90-day suspension for 24% of it, while 10% will remain in effect[2] - This agreement marks a clear turning point in the US-China trade tensions, indicating a potential easing of the tariff war[2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The US economy is experiencing a short-term boost in domestic demand, despite a cooling GDP growth rate of 1.7 percentage points due to increased imports[3] - The current tariff adjustments are seen as a strategy to buy time for restructuring the US domestic supply chain, rather than a permanent shift in trade policy[3] - China's exports are expected to benefit from the reduced tariff intensity, with April exports showing a strong year-on-year increase of 8.1%[3] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Following the trade talks, both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan experienced a rare simultaneous appreciation, with the dollar index rising by over 1% and the yuan strengthening by nearly 0.5% to around 7.21[3] - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to enhance the activity of China's external production chains and provide more space for key exports to the US[3] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - Despite the current easing, the long-term strategic intent of the US to reshape global supply chains remains, indicating that tariff fluctuations may continue[3] - It is recommended that China leverage the current favorable conditions to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic consumption, preparing for potential future changes in the tariff environment[3]