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国泰君安期货所长早读-20250724
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. is accelerating tariff negotiations with major trading partners as August 1st approaches. There are developments in trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, and potential agreements between the U.S. and the EU, while the third round of China - U.S. trade negotiations is set to take place [6]. - Different commodities in the futures market are expected to have various trends, such as gold and silver showing upward trends, copper being supported by inventory reduction, and many other commodities having different trends like short - term oscillations, wide - range fluctuations, etc. [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. Their trend intensities are both 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [11][17][19]. - Gold and silver have specific price, trading volume, and inventory data. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 is 792.90 with a daily increase of 1.03%, and the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 is 9492 with a daily increase of 1.07% [15]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports its price. The trend intensity is 1. There are updates on copper's price, trading volume, inventory, and news about trade agreements and new mine production [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have short - term oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. Relevant price, trading volume, and inventory data are provided, along with news about potential EU - U.S. trade agreements [24]. - **Lead**: It is waiting for the fermentation of supply - demand contradictions, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity is 0, and there are data on price, trading volume, inventory, and news about the U.S. - Japan trade agreement and global lead market supply [27][28]. - **Tin**: The flood in Wa State has disturbed its price. The trend intensity is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. There are updates on price, trading volume, inventory, and various macro and industry news [30][33]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate within a range, alumina to return to fundamentals, and cast aluminum alloy to continue oscillating. Their trend intensities are all 0. There are detailed production - related data and news about China - U.S. trade negotiations and Hainan Free Trade Port policies [35][36]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits its elasticity; stainless steel is marginally dominated by macro - sentiment, and its fundamentals determine elasticity. Their trend intensities are both 0, and there are data on price, trading volume, and industry news about nickel production and policies in Indonesia [37][41]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coke's second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to oscillate strongly; coking coal's supply policy expectations strengthen constraints, and it is also expected to oscillate strongly. Their trend intensities are both 1, with detailed price, trading volume, and inventory data [60][61][63]. - **Power Coal**: Its daily consumption is recovering, and it is expected to oscillate and stabilize. The trend intensity is 0, with price data from ports and production areas and information on open - interest changes [65][67][68]. 3.2.2 Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and its trend may have wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0, with data on price, trading volume, and news about price increases and EU policies [42][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to upstream resumption of production progress, and polysilicon's industry conference is held, with attention to market fluctuations. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [45][46][48]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many other chemicals such as PVC, fuel oil, etc. have different expected trends, including short - term weakness, oscillations, etc. [13]. 3.3 Building Materials and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is expected to oscillate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, with price, trading volume, and inventory data, as well as news about large - scale infrastructure projects [49][50]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Their trend intensities are both 0, with price, trading volume, and inventory data, and news about power consumption, steel industry policies, and production and inventory changes [52][53][55]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Their trend intensities are both 0, with price, trading volume, and inventory data, and news about price changes in the spot market [57][59]. 3.4 Others - **Log**: It is expected to oscillate repeatedly, but no detailed data or news are provided [69].