消息面上，2月24日，Keep对2025年度业绩做出盈利预告，截至2025年12月31日的12个月内，录得公司 拥有人应占亏损约7200万元(人民币，下同)，同比上一年度公司拥有人应占亏损5.35亿元收窄约87%。 非国际财务报告准则计量下，2025年度Keep录得经调整净利润约2500万元，扭亏为盈。公告指出，公 司盈利能力改善状况主要得益于公司聚焦AI发展和优化业务结构的战略调整初显成效。 KEEP(03650)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.92%，报3.76港元，成交额90.81万港元。 同时公告阐释，通过对全线业务的精细化运营，公司各业务板块的经营效率实现全面提升，并且，高毛 利率业务的收入占比持续扩大。基于此，Keep公司于2025年度实现了各业务板块毛利率的持续扩张， 并通过营销优化、供应链优化、人效提升以及行政效率改善等优化举措，实现了有效的费用管控。 ...

2026 年 4 月的中美高层会晤仍在按计划推进，双方态度积极，这意味着短期 内中美关系的下限有保障。根据以往经验，大国元首会晤前后通常能维持 3 至 6 个月的低水平稳定状态。因此，市场普遍预期今年上半年中美关系将保持相 对稳定。 美国对等关税政策变化对中国出口有什么影响？ 美国最高法院宣布对等关税违宪，目前白宫官方通告显示将提升 10%的关税， 但特朗普提议提升至 15%。若按 10%计算，中国相对于全球其他国家的关税 差将从 22 个百分点降至 15.6 个百分点，缩减了 6.5 个百分点。这一变化有利 旧经济领域数据表现较弱，但新经济（出口链、中游制造）和出行链强 劲，带动整体经济量价齐升。1 月 PPI 数据显示中游制造业 PPI 环比上 涨 0.4%，为 2021 年下半年以来最高，对 PPI 上行有重要作用。 1 月金融数据中，企业存款增长强劲，表明企业有资金进行生产投资， 带动实体经济循环改善。非银存款增长也较强，显示金融流动性较好。 企业中长期贷款放量和政府债务发行是 M2 和企业存款扩张的重要因素。 宏观-关税、美元与中国复苏验证 20260223 摘要 市场普遍预期中美关系上半年保持稳定 ...

Market Overview - On February 23, US stock indices faced pressure due to uncertainty surrounding tariff rulings and concerns over AI development, resulting in a collective decline. The Dow Jones fell by 1.66% to 48,804.06 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.04% to 6,837.75 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 1.13% to 22,627.27 points [1] Company-Specific Developments - IBM's stock plummeted over 13%, marking its largest single-day drop since October 2000. This decline is attributed to competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude Code, which targets IBM's reliance on legacy COBOL systems [3][7] - Other notable stock movements included Novo Nordisk, which fell over 16%, and a 32.75% drop in the 2x Long Novo Nordisk ETF, following disappointing clinical trial results for its product CagriSema compared to Eli Lilly's Zepbound. Conversely, Arcellx's stock surged over 77% due to a reported acquisition by Gilead Sciences at $115 per share [8] Tariff and Economic Policy - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced the cessation of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) following a Supreme Court ruling deeming them illegal. This change is expected to influence market dynamics throughout the year [4][5] - Market analysts have differing views on the impact of tariffs. Michael Landsberg from Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management suggests that ongoing tariff negotiations may continue to disrupt the market, while Edward Jones' Angelo Kourkafas downplays the potential economic impact of increasing tariffs to 15% [5] Commodity Market Reaction - In response to the tariff situation, precious metals experienced gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.7% to $5,262.3 and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.18% to $88.46 [9]

制造业没回流多少，贸易赤字也没降。所有目标一个都没实现，代价却实实在在压在民众肩上。 美国完全忽略了全球经济早已深度咬合。你打我一拳，我踹你一脚，最后谁都站不稳。 加拿大和墨西哥的信任崩了。以后谈移民、禁毒、边境安全，谁还愿意配合？合作基础没了。 欧盟、日本这些传统伙伴也开始动摇。合作意愿一天比一天弱，私下都在盘算备选方案。 东南亚国家甚至动了心思：能不能少用美元结算？马来西亚已经提了具体建议。这不是小事，这是体系松动的信号。 全球贸易框架不会一夜倒塌，但美国这么折腾，合作动力正在快速蒸发。 动用紧急经济权力随意加税，表面强硬，实则损害自身经济安全。2025年之后的后遗症开始冒头：增长乏力、物价高企、岗位流失、市场混乱。 科技领域伤得最深。AI发展需要稳定投入，数据中心计划投3万亿美元，可半导体成本直接翻倍。 CSIS报告指出：同时对多个国家打贸易战，等于主动放弃科技竞赛。波动太大，企业没法做五年、十年规划。 中国反击精准，专打农业和科技软肋。美国军工企业股价下跌，生产节奏被打乱，交付延期成常态。 关税从来不只是税。它是一种经济胁迫，是对盟友的变相施压。外交手腕因此被严重削弱。 美国过去靠什么当老大？不是靠蛮 ...

在铜价空前火热的时刻，本有望缔造全球最大矿业公司的超级并购谈判宣告破裂。这也是力拓与嘉能可 合并的尝试十多年来第三次以失败告终。在能源转型和AI发展成为多国竞争的关键发展高地之际，铜 的资源供应越来越受到重视。然而，供不应求正成为横亘在产业面前、不得不面对的问题。 估值分歧 当天，力拓集团宣布放弃与嘉能可的合并谈判，双方未能就交易估值达成一致，令这桩市值超2000亿美 元的世界级矿业整合计划无果而终。目前，力拓市值约1560亿美元，嘉能可市值约750亿美元。 嘉能可目前是全球第六大铜生产商，公司正努力在10年内将铜产能翻一倍，争取成为"世界铜王"。力拓 也有铜矿业务，若与嘉能可合并，将力压必和必拓成为全球最大铜生产商，还能获得每年约100万吨的 产量增长空间。 力拓在声明中表示，已确定无法达成一份能为股东创造价值的协议。嘉能可则在声明中回应称，力拓提 出的关键条款"严重低估了嘉能可的潜在相对价值贡献"，特别是其铜业务和增长管道的价值。力拓试图 在合并后保留董事长和首席执行官（CEO）职位，但未能提供足够溢价。 媒体获悉，公布放弃决定前，力拓完成了尽职调查，无法认同嘉能可所要求的高额收购溢价。此次谈判 中，嘉能 ...

中信银行（国际）首席经济师丁孟表示，特朗普多变的经济政策，可以在短期内影响全球经济表现和市 场信心。美国加征关税水平和对通胀的影响比预估低，不足以加速推升物价。美国就业市场仍存隐忧， 预计美国联邦储备局减息周期于2026年仍会延续，全球经济包括中国内地及香港也将继续受其影响。 新华财经香港2月5日电（记者林迎楠）中信银行（国际）有限公司5日举行2026年第一季度经济及投资 展望发布会指出，环球市场今年仍将聚焦美国减息周期对宏观经济带来的影响，预计2026年香港本地生 产总值增幅约为2.6%。 丁孟分析认为，2026年香港本地生产总值（GDP）增幅预计约2.6%。出口受高基数影响，预计2026年 增幅有所放缓；最优惠利率难以进一步下降，港元拆息未来走势受美国债息表现影响；楼价尚未具备大 幅反弹的基础，预计全年升幅在5%以内。 中信银行（国际）个人及商务银行业务投资主管张浩恩指出，美国数据显示美股板块轮动资金正转向价 值型股份，而亚洲股市部分板块则仍受惠于AI发展而呈现高增长。香港恒生指数向上突破去年高位， 但个别板块表现落后。 （文章来源：新华财经） 债市方面，张浩恩认为，地缘政治事件未平、央行政策分化，不同地 ...

作者丨 薛路皓 编辑丨 巴里 "我们不把自己定位为财务型投资人，而是产业型投资人。" 2026 年初， 和利资本创始管理合伙人孔令国 在第 18 届创业邦年会暨创业邦 100 未来独角兽大会 期间，回顾了自己近 30 年的投资生涯。 曾参与 180 多家企业的投资，近 100 亿元的基金管理规模，千亿市值的寒武纪和沐曦的天使投资人 ——这些数字背后，是一位来自中国台湾的投资人，在大陆做了 30 年芯片投资的身份演变。 和利资本成立于 2006 年，专注于半导体中早期投资的创投机构，这既不是大公司下属的战投机构， 也不是国家政府主导的政府投资基金。 "我常常跟人说，和利不仅仅是财务型投资人，更像是产业型投资人。"这背后隐藏着什么？ 伴随张汝京 2000 年在上海创建中芯国际，孔令国 2001 年从中国台湾到大陆驻扎，一头扎进国内的 半导体产业投资。 "你怎么和英特尔竞争？和英伟达竞争？"当时的世界是"平"的，半导体是全球化分工最明显的产业 链。对于许多芯片初创团队，最常面对的就是这些问题。 类似的这些问题浇灭了很多半导体创业者的热情，减少了许多投资机会。但孔令国没有放弃，默默坚 持了下来。 鉴于孔令国在苏州的经 ...

Core Insights - SpaceX has acquired xAI, with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, significantly higher than xAI's current valuation of approximately $250 billion [1][18] - The acquisition is structured as an all-stock deal, with xAI investors receiving 0.1433 shares of SpaceX for each share of xAI [1] - The merger aims to create a vertically integrated innovation engine that combines space technology with AI capabilities [7][17] Financial Overview - SpaceX's internal valuation is around $1 trillion, while xAI is valued at approximately $250 billion, leading to a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion post-merger [18] - SpaceX's revenue is projected to grow from $8.7 billion in 2023 to $15 billion in 2025, with Starlink contributing significantly to this growth [20] - xAI has been facing financial challenges, reportedly burning cash at a rate close to $1 billion per month, while SpaceX has a stable and growing cash flow [20][21] Strategic Implications - The merger positions SpaceX not just as a rocket company but as a comprehensive system covering AI, space, and communication infrastructure, enhancing its narrative for an upcoming IPO [21] - The integration of xAI into SpaceX allows for a potential shift in xAI's focus from merely developing models to becoming a system-level capability within a broader technological framework [17] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to stabilize xAI's financial situation by merging it with a cash-rich entity [20][21] Technological Vision - Elon Musk envisions that the future of AI computation will be in space, where energy and cooling requirements can be more efficiently met compared to terrestrial data centers [4][8] - The potential for deploying AI computation in orbit could lead to significant advancements in processing power, with Musk suggesting a pathway to deploy 1 terawatt of computing power annually [10][11] - The merger is expected to leverage SpaceX's capabilities in satellite deployment to create a more integrated system for AI computation and data processing [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady growth in CMP polishing liquid market share and rapid expansion in functional wet chemicals, leading to high annual performance growth [1] - The semiconductor industry is on an upward trend, with increased demand for materials driven by high wafer fab utilization rates, benefiting the company's product lines [6] - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings in CMP polishing liquids and functional wet chemicals, with significant sales growth in advanced packaging and etching post-cleaning solutions [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 25.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.5% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7.95 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 48.9% [5] - The company anticipates a gross margin of 56.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 23.8% [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 4.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 57 [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the U.S. Natural Gas Market Industry Overview - The U.S. natural gas market is currently facing supply tightness, particularly during cold waves, necessitating high gas prices to maintain market stability. This contrasts with the more relaxed conditions in Europe and the demand-sensitive nature of the Asian market [1][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Concerns**: The cold wave in 2026 exposed weaknesses in U.S. natural gas supply, with significant production disruptions in key regions and a surge in residential demand leading to rapid inventory depletion. This indicates insufficient domestic supply elasticity and increasing pressure to build inventories in the coming years [1][3][4]. - **LNG Exports**: The surge in U.S. LNG exports has consumed a large portion of the new production, resulting in tight domestic availability. This situation complicates the ability to meet the challenges posed by winter cold waves, industrial demand, and the growth of AI [1][14]. - **Price Volatility**: In 2025, the U.S. natural gas market experienced significant price fluctuations, with prices spiking to over $6 due to cold waves. The forward contract curve suggests that the market anticipates continued high prices in future winters, unlike Europe and Asia, which expect price declines [2][7]. - **Long-term Supply Stability**: The long-term stability of U.S. natural gas supply relies heavily on the Permian Basin, Haynesville, and Northeast regions. However, declining oil prices have restricted associated gas production in the Permian, and rising costs in Louisiana and the Northeast are affecting supply stability [10][12]. - **Impact of AI on Demand**: The explosion of AI is expected to significantly increase electricity demand in the U.S., necessitating a reevaluation of gas supply strategies. Even with a reduction in the share of gas for power generation to 30%, the increase in consumption will exceed current supply capabilities [16][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Price Sensitivity**: A $2 increase in U.S. gas prices has a more pronounced effect on Europe than on Asia, highlighting the differences in regional price elasticity [3][21]. - **Cold Wave Effects**: The 2026 cold wave led to a substantial increase in commercial and residential gas demand, with significant production challenges due to unexpected freeze-offs in major production areas, resulting in a daily loss of 1 billion cubic feet, which is over 10% of total supply [6][9]. - **Investment and Financing**: U.S. projects benefit from numerous long-term sales agreements, enhancing financing quality compared to Middle Eastern projects, which are more geopolitically sensitive [5]. - **Future Inventory Challenges**: Post-2025, while U.S. natural gas inventory levels are expected to improve, the anticipated increase in industrialization and AI-driven electricity demand may hinder healthy inventory accumulation, potentially leading to lower inventory levels than historical averages [15][16]. - **Global Market Dynamics**: The U.S. natural gas price increases are expected to influence global markets, with potential price hikes in Europe and Asia if U.S. prices remain high due to cold weather [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the U.S. natural gas market as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics that could shape future trends.