Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemical sectors shows mixed performance, with glass futures experiencing a slight decline, indicating underlying supply and demand dynamics that could impact future pricing [1] Supply - According to Zhonghui Futures, the processing order days have improved month-on-month, and spot prices in South China have risen, but inventory levels are beginning to accumulate among traders and factories in Shahe. The daily melting volume remains at 160,000 tons, with both coal and petroleum coke processes remaining profitable, suggesting limited potential for unexpected maintenance shutdowns, thus putting pressure on supply [1] Demand - Ruida Futures highlights that the current real estate situation remains bleak, with the sector continuing to show weakness. Downstream processing orders have seen a slight increase, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs [1] Inventory - Xinhu Futures reports that last week, glass factory inventories shifted to a reduction, with a decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes nationwide. The inventory reduction is mainly concentrated in Central China, followed by East and South China, while North China still experiences some accumulation. Current national factory inventory levels are lower than the same period last year, but midstream inventory pressures remain significant [1] Market Outlook - Wukuang Futures anticipates that in the short term, glass prices will remain weak and volatile, but valuations should not be overly pessimistic. In the medium to long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macroeconomic sentiment, necessitating attention to the impact of anti-involution on glass production capacity and urban renewal policies on glass demand. If substantial policies are introduced in the real estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; however, if demand remains weak, significant price increases will require ongoing supply reductions [1]

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1071.00 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.59% observed, reaching a low of 1046.00 CNY/ton [1] - Inventory levels are high, particularly in upstream and midstream sectors, due to insufficient production and sales during the holiday period, leading to a buildup of stock [1] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, although the immediate demand remains weak [1] Group 2 - The daily melting volume of float glass remains stable at approximately 15.85 million tons, which is at a four-year low, contributing to downward pressure on futures prices [2] - Despite a slight decrease in enterprise inventory, levels remain high compared to previous years, leading to unstable sentiment regarding sales and inventory reduction [2] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment phase, with a significant year-on-year decline in housing completion area, limiting the potential for a substantial recovery in glass demand [2]