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估值高企也无妨!美银:企业基本面强劲有望支撑美股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 03:18
Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is currently at historically high valuation levels, with 19 out of 20 valuation metrics indicating it is "statistically expensive" compared to historical averages [1] - Despite high interest rates, inflation, and policy fluctuations, the profit margins of the S&P 500 index have performed better than expected, attributed to companies moving away from low-quality growth models reliant on zero interest rates and globalization [1] - The shift towards a more asset-light business model, particularly with increased representation from technology and healthcare sectors, has contributed to the S&P 500's performance over the past few decades [1] Group 2 - A new emerging risk is that major companies, including the "Big Six" in U.S. stocks (excluding Tesla), are becoming more asset-intensive due to significant capital expenditures [2] - Historically, asset-intensive manufacturers have lower valuation multiples compared to R&D-driven innovative companies, as the former have higher fixed costs and slower growth prospects [2] - The potential for transformative productivity gains from the current AI investment cycle may alleviate concerns regarding the shift to asset-intensive models [2] - The banking sector and other traditional economic sectors are viewed positively due to potential regulatory easing that could act as a catalyst for further productivity improvements [2]