2025年的全球制造业没有按"贸易冲突=工业衰退"的剧本走。摩根大通把这一年的韧性拆成几条线索：全球 工业产出（IP）在经历2022-2024的低迷后重新抬头，且在贸易摩擦最激烈的阶段，商品部门反而跑赢服务 业。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通全球经济研究团队的Joseph Lupton在24日中的研报中表示，2025年的工业表 现"打破了与GDP的历史紧密关系"。这也是整篇研报最想解释的"反常"：为什么增长没塌、库存没拖、而且 不只是科技在撑。 他们把答案落在三个变量上：一是需求端由资本开支（尤其是设备投资）主导，二是AI热潮确实推高了科技 产出，但更关键的是非科技部门从连续两年收缩回到正增长，三是库存从"拖累"变成"偏瘦"，给后续增长留 下了弹性空间。 往前看，研报给出的判断不算激进：在终端需求仍稳、库存偏低且需求可能继续扩散的情形下，未来几个月 全球工业产出仍可能再走出2%-3%的年化增速。但风险同样是"双向"的——科技回归更可持续的节奏、以及 劳动力市场停滞对零售的约束，可能把增长重新压回去；关税相关的司法变化，则被认为难以改变美国"贸 易冲突"的主线。 2025的2.4%并非一口气冲出来：一季度前置很猛 ...

好的，尊敬各位投资者，大家下午好，我是长江属王浩涛团队的于宏。那今天的这个 1 点 的开门红电话会议，我们也是很荣幸的邀请到咱云铝股份的证代，王继四总跟我们做个最 新的沟通。是的。咱那个开门大吉，骏马这个腾飞。咱也可以开始了，可以先简单的这个 回顾一下我们整个 25 年的这个经营情况，一会对 26 年做个大致展望，谢谢。 云铝股份证代王继四总: 25 年的话，应该是感谢这个开工第一天，然后在线上参加咱们本次交流的各位投资者，祝 大家，也是祝大家马上，马年大吉，马上发财，呵呵。然后，就是整个 25 年的话，应该 是整个了，就是从农历年来说，整个 25 年的话，我们盈利的话应该说是这整个情况还是 延续的以前稳健的一个经营策略，也抓住了这个，就是整个市场的一个，整个这个市场价 格上升呐。包括整个云南省，那个就是整个电力的供应的这个环节的一个。整体的一个形 式，然后整个生产经营也是稳健的进行。 分析师 1: 这个就是 25 年的一个基本情况。针对 26 年和 25 年的情况，因为也没达到这个业绩预告 的一个条件。第二个，近期，可能下个月我们，下个月下旬应该我们年报就披露了。也不 是特别方便在这里说一些非常细的一些数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report rating Wynn Macau (01128) as "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 7.4, indicating a cautious outlook despite some positive indicators in the gaming sector [1] Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's EBITDA for Q4 2025 is projected at USD 271 million, reflecting a quarterly and year-over-year decline of 12% and 7% respectively; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be USD 287 million, showing a quarterly increase of 1% but a year-over-year decrease of 2%, aligning with Morgan Stanley's expectations but falling short of market expectations [1] - Over the past year, Wynn Macau's corporate EBITDA has decreased by 7% year-over-year, underperforming compared to peers in the industry [1] Market Context - The total gaming revenue in Macau has increased this year, with Wynn Macau's gaming revenue in January surpassing that of Q4 last year [1] - The new Chairman's Club at Wynn Palace is set to open before the Lunar New Year, which may enhance customer experience and revenue potential [1] - Retail rental income in Q4 has increased by 28% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a positive trend in non-gaming revenue streams [1] Investment Considerations - The current valuation of Wynn Macau is below the industry average, suggesting potential for upside; however, investor reluctance towards less liquid stocks persists unless the company can capture market share, which did not occur in Q4 [1] - Simply relying on low valuations may not be sufficient to attract investors to Wynn Macau [1]

消息面上，2月13日，永利澳门发布控股股东WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED截至2025年12月31日止第四季 及年度业绩。于2025年第四季，拉斯维加斯业务、永利皇宫、Encore Boston Harbor及永利澳门经调整后 的物业EBITDAR较2024年第四季分别减少2,660万美元、2,110万美元、180万美元及70万美元。 里昂发布研报称，永利澳门2025年第四季物业EBITDA按年下跌7%至21.13亿港元，符合该行预期，但 较市场预期低10%，受贵宾厅及中场赢率下降所拖累。物业EBITDA利润率按年收缩3.6个百分点至 28%，亦符合该行预期。此外，公司将2026年资本开支指引由原先4.5亿-5亿美元，下调至4亿-4.5亿美 元。 智通财经APP获悉，永利澳门(01128)绩后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.58%，报5.83港元，成交额4053.48万 港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Pengding Holdings (002938) with a target PE of 30x for 2025E and 24x for 2026E, while other companies like Shenghong Technology (300476) and Shengyi Technology (600183) do not have a specific rating [3]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, driven by AI demand, with total capital expenditures projected to rise from approximately $160 billion to about $450 billion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a strong alignment between capital expenditure growth and AI computing demand [9][25]. - The NPO (Near-Photonics Optics) and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies are gaining traction in the industry, providing substantial growth opportunities for domestic optical communication companies [31][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of scalable optical modules in future cloud infrastructure, with NPO currently favored by domestic cloud vendors due to its advantages in interconnect density and cost [34][36]. Summary by Sections North American Cloud Vendors' Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $81.273 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.72%, with a net profit of $38.458 billion, up 59.52% [12]. - Google achieved Q4 FY25 revenue of $113.828 billion, a 17.99% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $34.455 billion, up 29.84% [16]. - Amazon's Q4 FY25 revenue reached $213.386 billion, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $2.1192 billion, up 5.93% [20]. - Meta's Q4 FY25 revenue was $59.893 billion, a 23.78% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $22.768 billion, up 9.26% [21]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2026 - Google is expected to have a capital expenditure of $175-185 billion in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 97% [25]. - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be in the range of $115-135 billion for 2026, indicating a 77% increase year-over-year [27]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at around $200 billion, a 50% increase from previous estimates [20]. NPO and CPO Technology Developments - NPO technology is gaining popularity among cloud vendors due to its high interconnect density and cost-effectiveness, making it suitable for distributed scale-up networks [34][36]. - CPO technology, which integrates optical engines and switching chips, is being actively promoted by NVIDIA and is expected to replace traditional pluggable optical modules in the future [37][42]. - The report highlights the significant development space for domestic optical communication companies driven by the advancements in NPO and CPO technologies [31][46].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant acceleration in capital expenditures driven by AI among major US cloud service providers, which is expected to benefit the computing materials market substantially [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major US cloud service providers are increasing their capital expenditures significantly, with Meta projecting a capital expenditure of $115 to $135 billion for 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 73%, focusing on superintelligent labs and AI infrastructure [1][2]. - Alphabet (Google's parent company) anticipates capital expenditures of $175 to $185 billion for 2026, with a year-over-year increase of 97%, primarily for AI functionality optimization and cloud infrastructure expansion [2]. - Amazon expects capital expenditures of approximately $200 billion for 2026, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52% [2]. - Microsoft indicates that short-term assets (CPU and GPU servers) will constitute about two-thirds of its capital expenditures [2]. - All four major US cloud service providers expect to face supply constraints for critical computing resources in 2026, necessitating accelerated investments and optimized capacity configurations to meet rising demand [2]. Group 2: Transition in Electronic Fabric Production - Traditional electronic fabric production is shifting towards low-dielectric electronic fabric production, with companies like Taiyo stopping the production of certain E-glass electronic fabric series due to market structure changes and special product demand adjustments [3]. - The demand for Low-Dk electronic fabric is increasing, leading to a gradual reduction in the production of traditional E-glass products, with plans to cease production of specific series by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Price Trends in Electronic Fabrics - Prices for traditional electronic fabrics and low-dielectric electronic fabrics are expected to rise, with Showa Denko announcing price increases of over 30% for CCL and PCB due to tight supply and demand for raw materials [3]. - E-glass prices have already seen a 15% increase in January, with an expected further rise of 10-15% in February, while new price negotiations for Low-Dk fabrics aim for a 20% increase [3]. - The supply-demand mismatch, driven by high demand for high-end low-dielectric electronic fabrics, is leading to a contraction in traditional electronic fabric production and subsequent price increases [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company remains optimistic about the continued growth in capital expenditures in the computing market, which is expected to drive technological iterations and demand growth, benefiting the computing materials market [4]. - The transition from traditional electronic fabric production to low-dielectric electronic fabric production is seen as a critical juncture, with anticipated price increases for both types of fabrics [4]. - Companies to watch include Zhongcai Technology, International Composites, Honghe Technology, and Feilihua [4].

近期美股市场波动加剧，科技股成为焦点。2月6日美股三大指数暴涨，道指创新高，芯片股领涨；2月 10日科技股再度反弹，英伟达等个股上涨。这些事件可能间接影响电子板块情绪，但新美亚电子未直接 涉及AI或资本开支热点，其波动更多受个股因素驱动。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 新美亚电子于2026年1月26日发布最新财报(统计截止2025年12月27日)，关键数据显示营收同比增长 58.98%至31.90亿美元，但净利润同比下滑24.18%至4928.6万美元，净利率为1.55%。毛利率为7.56%， 每股收益为0.91美元(稀释后0.89美元)。尽管营收增长显著，利润端承压可能受成本上升影响，资产回 报率(ROA)为3.15%，净资产收益率(ROE)为9.74%。 近期事件 经济观察网新美亚电子(SANM)股价在最近7天(2026年2月5日至2月10日)呈现波动，其中2月6日单日大 涨5.23%，收盘价报149.79美元，成交量放大至110.11万股，振幅达5.23%。截至2月10日，股价收于 149.69美元，较2月5日收盘价142.34美元累计上涨2.75%，区间振幅为8.58%。同期，美股大盘指 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 强于大市 AI 算力材料行业更新 算力市场供不应求，电子布涨价趋势确立 海外云服务厂商大幅提高资本开支，算力材料市场亦有望深度受益。传统电 子布产能向低介电电子布产能切换的过程中引发供需错配，传统电子布和低 介电电子布价格有望迎来普涨。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 我们看好算力市场资本开支持续推动技术迭代和需求增长，算力材料市 场亦有望深度受益。在传统电子布产能向低介电电子产能切换的关键节 点，市场供给和需求错配，传统电子布和低介电电子价格均有望上涨。建 议关注中材科技、国际复材、宏和科技、菲利华。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ AI 市场需求过热引发行业泡沫。远期供给端产能过剩引发价格下滑。技 术变革导致原有产品淘汰。 相关研究报告 《存储行业深度报告》20260123 《2026 年 CES 英伟达演讲》20260107 《存储行业点评》20260105 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子 证券分析师：苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's stock dropped nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 68.85 with a transaction volume of HKD 2.943 billion [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, SMIC reported sales revenue of USD 2.489 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.5% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was USD 173 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 60.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.9% [1] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, the company provided guidance indicating that sales revenue will remain flat quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 18% and 20% [1] - Under the assumption of no significant changes in the external environment, the company anticipates that the revenue growth for 2026 will exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain roughly the same as in 2025 [1] Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that the management's guidance for Q1 revenue being flat aligns with their expectation of a 2% growth and the market's flat outlook [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 is slightly lower than Goldman Sachs' expectation of 21.7% and the market's expectation of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management expects revenue growth to surpass the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures remaining stable year-on-year; Goldman Sachs believes there is potential for upward revision in guidance [1]

中芯国际高管今日在业绩说明会上表示，2025年公司资本开支为81亿美元，高于年初预期，主要是因为 应对客户强劲需求、外部环境变化以及设备交付时间加长。 ...