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有色60ETF(159881)回调超2.5%,工业金属价格引关注
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-16 06:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that aluminum prices have temporarily weakened following the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cut, but global aluminum inventories have slightly decreased, maintaining low levels between 1.2 to 1.25 million tons, which supports aluminum prices [1] - The global aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance for the next 2-3 years due to reduced production from overseas projects caused by power issues and slow incremental releases from Indonesia, leading to sustained low inventory levels [1] - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum industry is approximately 5,500 yuan per ton, and with the decline in alumina prices, the cost per ton of aluminum still has room for reduction, which is expected to maintain high profit levels [1] Group 2 - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high for the year, indicating that aluminum still has room for price increases, especially if reduced production due to electricity shortages in the U.S. occurs, which could lead to stronger price elasticity for aluminum [1] - Cash flow for electrolytic aluminum companies continues to recover, enhancing profit stability, with lower future capital expenditure intensity and an increased willingness to distribute dividends, highlighting the asset's dividend characteristics [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering industries such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, reflecting the overall performance of leading companies in the nonferrous metal industry [1]