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行业ETF配置系列报告之一:沃土生金春潮起,农业擎旗续周期
Orient Securities· 2026-02-03 11:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current agricultural sector has investment value due to upstream price transmission, and agricultural products are expected to rise comprehensively. The current allocation of the agricultural sector by funds is low, and there is potential for growth when incremental funds enter the market [5][8] - There are both comprehensive and theme - focused agricultural - related indices, with distinct small - and medium - cap characteristics, reasonable valuations, and different performance in terms of stability and elasticity [5] - Recommended representative ETFs include those related to overall agriculture, livestock breeding, and grain and seed industries [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Agricultural Sector Investment Value Analysis 3.1.1 Upstream Price Transmission, Agricultural Products Expected to Rise Comprehensively - Some agricultural products are at the starting point of price increase, and the balance of supply and demand is fragile. Upstream resource price increases and geopolitical disturbances can disrupt the supply - demand balance and push up prices. Rising production factor costs will clear out inefficient enterprises [8] - Two investment paths are recommended: paying attention to products whose supply - demand balance is disrupted by external factors, and industries that are expected to start a new round of growth after price increases, such as the pig - breeding industry [8][9] 3.1.2 Currently, Funds are Under - Allocated to the Agricultural Sector - Active equity funds' allocation to the agricultural sector is less than 0.5%. The proportion of the agricultural sector in the A - share market is 1.31%, indicating an under - allocation. The scale of agricultural - related ETFs accounts for only 0.87% of the total A - share industry ETFs, while the chemical industry has experienced growth in both price and scale. The agricultural sector has growth potential when incremental funds enter [10] 3.2 Current Agricultural - Related Index Investment Value Analysis 3.2.1 Compilation Scheme Features: Meeting Various Investment Sharpness - The 8 agricultural - related indices can be divided into two categories: comprehensive industry indices (covering the entire industrial chain) and theme - focused indices. The former is suitable for investors optimistic about the overall development of agriculture, and the latter is for those with specific investment needs [18][19] 3.2.2 Positioning Style: Distinct Small - and Medium - Cap Characteristics, with Different Emphases and Features - In terms of market value, most indices have small - and medium - cap characteristics, with the "Big Agriculture" index having relatively large - cap components, and the "Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fishery" and "Livestock Breeding" indices having relatively small - cap components [25] - In terms of position characteristics, different indices have different emphases in sub - industries. Comprehensive industry indices cover the entire industrial chain, while theme - focused indices have more specific focuses [27][28][30] 3.2.3 Valuation Level: Overall Valuation is Reasonable, with Relatively Strong Attractiveness - The current price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the 8 agricultural - related indices are between 15 - 30 times, mostly at the bottom 50% of the past ten - year percentile. The price - to - book ratios are mostly between 2.5 - 3, also at the bottom 50% of the past ten - year percentile, indicating reasonable valuations [36] 3.2.4 Performance: Performance Elasticity and Stability - In the long - term, comprehensive agricultural indices have relatively strong performance stability, while theme - focused indices have greater performance elasticity. The annualized return of the "Guozheng Grain" index in the past ten years is 11%, and the returns of other indices are mostly within 5% [42] 3.3 Representative ETF Product References - If optimistic about the overall development of agriculture, consider the Fuguo Agriculture ETF (159825) [47] - If focusing on investment opportunities in the livestock - breeding sector, consider the Cathay Pacific Breeding ETF (159865), Penghua Livestock ETF (159867), Ping An Breeding ETF (516760), and Yongying Breeding ETF (159165) [47] - If focusing on investment opportunities in the grain and seed industries, consider the Penghua Grain ETF (159698) [48]