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国防军工行业2026年度投资策略:十五五内需筑基,军贸突围、民用开拓
Western Securities· 2025-12-15 10:53
Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report emphasizes the stable growth foundation of the defense industry, driven by continuous increases in national defense spending, with a budget of 1.78 trillion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.15% [32][38] - The report highlights the importance of the military aircraft industry chain as the main growth logic, with a focus on the generational upgrade of advanced fighter jets and breakthroughs in domestic aero-engine technology [84] - The report suggests that the military-civilian integration strategy will provide long-term alpha for military enterprises, transitioning from revenue expansion to high-quality development [82][84] Group 2 - The military industry outperformed the broader market, with the CITIC Military Industry Index yielding 16.6% as of November 30, 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 by 1.5 percentage points but lagging behind the ChiNext by 26% [11][15] - The report indicates that the military industry is currently ranked 16th out of 30 in terms of performance among CITIC's primary industry indices [15] - The report notes that the military industry’s valuation is at a high level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 99.27, placing it in the 80th percentile historically over the past decade [21] Group 3 - The report identifies key areas of focus within the military sector, including infrared technology, laser weapons, and military trade, suggesting specific companies for investment [84] - The report discusses the increasing global military trade, particularly in aircraft, which is projected to account for 43.62% of the military trade market in 2024, with missiles and artillery also showing significant growth [79] - The report emphasizes the potential of laser weapons in counter-drone applications, highlighting their advantages such as high precision and low cost [69][70]