旗下拥有Kayak、Priceline等旅行品牌的Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)于美东时间10月28日盘后公布第三 季度财报，全年预订量前景好于预期，此前担忧整体经济及美国政府停摆将抑制旅行需求的投资者因而 缓了一口气。该公司股价在盘后交易中上涨。 Booking在周二的声明中表示，公司预计全年备受关注的"客房夜数"增长率约为7%。根据市场数据，分 析师此前预期这一增长率为6.7%。 数据显示，在截至9月的季度中，公司销售额同比增长13%，达到90.1亿美元，高于分析师此前预计的 87.3亿美元。该季度公司经调整每股收益为99.50美元，较去年同期增长19%，超出了分析师给出的 95.85美元每股收益预期。 这一乐观预期得益于第三季度的强劲业绩——该季度公司的客房夜销售量和总预订额均超出分析师预 期。在截至9月30日的三个月里，客房夜销售量增长8%，达到3.23亿晚，而分析师平均预期为3.16亿晚; 总预订额为497亿美元，高于479亿美元的平均预期值。 Booking高管在业绩公布后的电话会议上表示，所有主要地区的需求保持韧性，推动业绩超预期，其中 美国市场还受益于更强劲的出境旅行需求。 ...

2025年，时任美国总统特朗普再度执政，中美之间的贸易摩擦迅速升级，犹如一场骤雨般席卷而来。年初，华盛顿便对自中国进口的各类商品，从精密的电 子元件到庞大的机械设备，一概施加了10%的惩罚性关税。然而，到了4月，这一举措的严厉程度更上一层楼，关税比例跃升至令人咋舌的145%。北京方面 并未退缩，迅速采取了强硬的反制措施，对美国的农产品和航空器征收了高达125%的关税，一场旷日持久的贸易战正式拉开序幕。 在关键的稀土领域，中国自4月起便开始收紧出口，尤其针对与美国国防工业相关的企业，此举让美国的高科技产业瞬间陷入"卡脖子"的困境，芯片制造和 电动汽车的生产都受到了严重的延误。 这场贸易冲突的直接后果是全球供应链的严重扰动。美国本土企业首当其冲，承受着巨大的经营压力，而消费者则不得不面对物价的飞涨。航空巨头波音公 司更是遭受重创，数架飞机因订单被中国航空公司取消而退还，公司首席执行官不得不公开承认，全年营收将因此大幅缩水。 进入5月，双方代表在日内瓦举行了紧急会谈。美国财政部长与中国副总理经过一番艰苦磋商，最终达成了一项为期90天的临时协议。根据协议，关税税率 得以大幅下调：美国将145%的关税降至30%，中国则 ...

这个3600亿级的变化，远比一次降准或降息更能揭示市场的真实脉动。 国家外汇管理局数据显示，9月银行结汇规模达到2647亿美元，售汇为2136亿美元，中间的510亿美元差额就是结售汇顺差。 这一数据大幅高于前两个季度 122亿美元的累计顺差，显示出资金流向在第三季度发生了急剧转变。 企业财务策略正在发生根本性调整。 随着美联储降息周期开启，美元指数年内下跌8.70%，从年初的110附近跌至7月的96左右。 出口商结汇率从7月的 46.1%大幅升至54.9%，创2024年9月以来新高。 510亿美元！ 这是2025年9月中国银行结售汇顺差的数字，创下了2020年12月以来的单月最高纪录。 这意味着，平均每天有超过17亿美元的资金正在从"囤美 元"转向"换人民币"，跨国资金正以五年来最快速度回流中国。 过去三年，不少中国企业选择将海外赚取的美元留在境外，享受美联储加息带来的高额利息。 如今，这些"趴"在海外账户上的资金开始大规模返乡。 选择在9月之后集中结汇，企业有着明确的财务考量。 年底前，各大企业需要为下一个财年和分红做准备。 更关键的是，市场普遍预期美联储将进一步降 息，美元贬值风险加大，提前结汇可以避免潜 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 南方航空(600029) 投资评级 增持 | | | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 南方航空（600029.SH）2025 年中报点 评：客座率高位提升，看好座收修复 弹性 南方航空（600029.SH）2024 年报点评： 票价拖累客运业务增利，货运业务实 现高增 南方航空（600029.SH）2024 年三季报 点评：客座率超过 2019 年同期，票价 下跌拖累整体盈利 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 南方航空（600029.SH）2025 年三季报点评： 三季度业绩亮眼，看好全年利润转盈 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_S ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reported 1632.26 points on October 23, down 8.9% from October 16. The VLCC market remains cautious due to the implementation of special port fees between China and the US, leading to a weak sentiment among shipowners [2][13] - Guangdong Province has released a high-quality development plan for the low-altitude economy, aiming to establish itself as a national leader in this sector. The civil aviation industry has shown steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total transport turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][15][16] - In Shenzhen, the monthly delivery volume of autonomous vehicles has surpassed one million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in express delivery volume in September. The postal industry reported a total business income of 152.57 billion yuan in September, up 6.8% year-on-year [2][22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The CTFI reported a decrease of 8.9% [2][13] - Guangdong's low-altitude economy development plan aims to optimize airspace management and promote low-altitude logistics [15][16] - Shenzhen's autonomous vehicle delivery volume has exceeded one million, with express delivery volume growing by 12.7% [22][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index has shown a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [26] - Domestic cargo flights have increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights have risen by 15.86% [32] - The express delivery business volume in September increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with total business income reaching 127.37 billion yuan [50][54] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 4010.73 points, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed the 4000-point mark, trending on social media [1] - The index closed at 4005.44 points, up 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.52% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.35% [1] Sector Performance - The regional concept and transportation sectors showed strong performance, with notable gains in the Fujian and China-Korea Free Trade Zone areas [2] - The software sector was active, with leading stocks like Kingsoft Office rising over 8% [5] - The computing hardware sector also performed well, with companies like Industrial Fulian and Zhongji Xuchuang reaching historical highs [1] Transportation Sector Insights - Major airlines reported positive operational data for September, with increases in passenger capacity, turnover, and load factors [4] - China Southern Airlines saw a 4.43% increase in passenger capacity, while China Eastern Airlines reported an 8.67% rise in passenger turnover [4] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a positive cycle of volume and price, with high load factors and industry initiatives likely to support ticket prices [4] Software Sector Insights - Kingsoft Office reported a 25.33% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by growth in its WPS personal and WPS 365 business lines [8] - The software industry showed robust growth, with software business revenue reaching 96,409 billion yuan, a 12.6% increase year-on-year [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent policy aims to enhance the role of service-oriented manufacturing, including software and information services, by 2028 [9]

近日，市场监管总局批准建立航空高端装备、工业制造仪器仪表、新能源汽车、热工仪表、电力智慧测 量、航天信息技术、乳制品应用等10个计量人才实训中心。针对现代化产业发展中的计量技术瓶颈问 题，实训中心将立足产业和行业特色，开发涵盖基础理论、技术实操、前沿探索的课程体系，采用"虚 拟仿真+实景操作""理论实训一体化"等现代化技术手段，开展定制化、模块化实训。同时，实训中心将 探索建立与产业需求对接的动态调整机制，通过开发数字化实训系统、建设在线资源库等方式，实现实 训资源的广泛覆盖和高效利用。 ...

受隔夜美股创新高影响，港股三大指数今日高开，早盘持续震荡，截止午盘，恒指涨0.02%，国指跌 0.24%，恒生科技指数涨0.02%。大型科技股涨跌各异，尤其是小米继续走低，跌近2%；政策叠加行业 高景气，半导体股持续活跃，航空股继续拉升。另一方面，亚洲早盘现货黄金下破3980美元，黄金股跌 幅明显，铜等有色金属股齐跌。此外，港股两只新股上市，滴普科技涨超120%，八马茶业上市涨超 63%。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, industrial enterprises' profits improved year-on-year to 21.6%, up from 20.4% in August, driven by a low base effect and strong export performance [3] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also increased to 3.1% in September from 2.3% in August, indicating a positive trend in cash flow due to anti-involution policies [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has shown signs of recovery in October, influenced by trade tensions and a loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a better fourth quarter compared to the third [5] - The market anticipates a controlled impact from new redemption regulations, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as a primary investment strategy [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to OPEC+ increasing production targets and seasonal demand decline, with Brent crude expected to average $68 in 2025 and $62 in 2026 [9] - Despite short-term volatility from geopolitical tensions, the long-term outlook suggests limited impact from sanctions on oil prices, with high-dividend energy companies presenting investment opportunities [9] Group 4: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors [8] - The construction sector shows mixed signals, with some recovery in cement supply and demand, while asphalt production rates have decreased [8] Group 5: Key Company Performances - Beike-W (2423 HK) is projected to benefit from a gradual market recovery, with a target price of HKD 65.64 based on a 26x PE ratio for 2026 [11] - Zhiou Technology (301376 CH) reported a revenue of CNY 60.8 billion for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, and is expected to improve profitability as tariff risks ease [12] - Tianhai Defense (300008 CH) showed significant growth in Q3, with a revenue increase of 57.27% year-on-year, driven by strong orders in shipbuilding and defense sectors [14] - Kuka Home (603816 CH) reported steady revenue growth of 6.5% in Q3, with a focus on global expansion and brand strength [15] - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) experienced a revenue decline of 9.83% in Q3, but is expected to see margin recovery as product prices stabilize [16] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Services - Salted Fish (002847 CH) reported a revenue increase of 14.7% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing product categories and channels to enhance profitability [27] - Petty Co. (300673 CH) continues to see strong growth in its domestic brand, with a focus on single product strategies despite challenges in overseas markets [18] - Jiangsu Bank (601009 CH) reported a steady growth in net profit and revenue, driven by stable interest income and effective cost management [32]

油运：本周截至2025年10月24日，BDTI报收1,256点，周环比+4.06%，同比+120.65%；BCTI报收635 点，周环比+15.25%，同比+113.80%。干散货运：本周截至2025年10月24日，BDI报收1,991.00点，周环 比-0.58%，同比+40.51%；分船型来看，BPI报收1,924.00点，周环比+5.31%，同比+58.22%；BCI报收 2,871.00点，周环比-1.99%，同比+54.44%；BSI报收1,369.00点，周环比-3.23%，同比+9.96%。 中国银河近日发布交通运输行业周报：本周（10月20日-10月25日），SW交通运输各个子板块累计涨跌 幅分别为：公交（+4.81%）、仓储物流（+2.88%）、高速公路（+2.45%）、跨境物流（+2.18%）、铁 路（+1.26%）、航空机场（+1.22%）、公路货运（+1.36%）、港口（+0.92%）、快递（+0.18%）、航 运（-1.28%）。 中国银河近日发布交通运输行业周报：本周（10月20日-10月25日），SW交通运输各个子板块累计涨跌 幅分别为：公交（+4.81%）、仓储物流（+2.88 ...