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壹网壹创:短期业绩承压,关注新平台及AI布局-20250509
HTSC· 2025-05-09 02:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Hold" [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.24 billion RMB for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million RMB, down 29.6% year-over-year, which was below previous expectations [1] - The company is actively expanding into emerging platforms like Xiaohongshu and focusing on AI-driven advertising, although the current valuation reflects high market expectations [1] - Short-term performance is under pressure due to business adjustments and the need for time to see the effects of R&D investments, but the long-term potential driven by dual engines of "e-commerce full-service provider + new consumer brand accelerator" is worth monitoring [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, the company achieved a revenue of 250 million RMB, down 12.1% year-over-year, with a net profit of 30 million RMB, down 11.2% year-over-year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 24.8%, primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin online distribution business and higher asset impairment losses [3] - The company’s operating efficiency improved, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 8 days to 120 days, and accounts receivable turnover days decreasing by 17 days to 59 days [4] Business Segments - Revenue from brand online marketing services and brand online management services decreased by 17.1% and 9.7% respectively, while online distribution revenue increased by 11.8% to 470 million RMB, becoming the largest business segment [2] Cost Management - The company has seen effective cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 1.7 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points, and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - Despite cost management efforts, overall net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 6.1% due to weak performance in the main online service business [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is in a transformation phase, with net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted down by 30.4% and 17.7% to 90 million RMB and 110 million RMB respectively [5] - The target price has been set at 21.10 RMB, reflecting a 32.7% increase from the previous target price of 15.9 RMB, with a corresponding PE ratio of 56x for 2025E [5]