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经济的三个温度——10月经济数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-11-16 12:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic data for October, highlighting three different "temperatures" of the economy: sectors that feel better than the economy, those that feel similar, and those that feel worse. It emphasizes the divergence in economic performance across different regions and industries, as well as the impact of policy support on various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Better than Economic Conditions - The productive service industry and equipment manufacturing are performing strongly, with the productive service sector's contribution to GDP rising to approximately 9.3% by the third quarter. In October, the information industry production index grew by 13%, marking eight consecutive months of growth, while the rental and business services sector grew by 8.2% [5][15]. - Equipment manufacturing saw an increase of 8% in value added in October, with significant contributions from the automotive and electronics sectors, which accounted for 42.1% of the growth in large-scale industry [6][15]. Group 2: Similar to Economic Conditions - Essential consumption showed a growth rate of 4.2% in October, up from 3.4% in the previous month, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.4% from January to October, surpassing last year's 4.0% [7][21]. - Service consumption, as measured by retail sales in the service sector, had a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% from January to October, slightly better than the previous value of 5.2% [8][21]. Group 3: Worse than Economic Conditions - Productive investment, particularly in manufacturing, is declining, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.7% from January to October, down from 4.0% previously. The middle-stream investment in manufacturing has decreased significantly, with a growth rate of only 1.43% [10][25]. - Subsidized consumption, particularly in six categories of durable goods, saw a negative growth rate of -2.6% in October, a significant drop from the previous month's 3.9%. Notably, automotive and home appliance sectors experienced declines of -6.6% and -14.6%, respectively [10][25]. - The construction chain, including infrastructure and real estate investments, continued to decline, with significant drops in production rates for related materials like crude steel and cement [11][26].