Core Insights - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a 4% year-on-year decline in total platinum supply for 2025, reaching 218 tons, marking the lowest level in five years. This supply contraction remains a core trend [1] - Total demand for platinum is expected to decrease by 4% to 248 tons in 2025, despite a 10% year-on-year increase in global platinum demand in Q1 2025, primarily driven by strong investment demand [1][6] - A projected shortfall of 30 tons in 2025 indicates a third consecutive year of supply deficit [1] Supply Dynamics - Platinum mine supply is anticipated to drop significantly, with Q1 2025 showing a 13% year-on-year decline to 34 tons, the lowest quarterly output since Q2 2020. South Africa's production was notably affected by heavy rainfall [2] - The total platinum supply for Q1 2025 is expected to decrease by 10% to 45 tons, with a full-year forecast of 169 tons (-6%) for mine supply, which is 22 tons (11%) lower than the pre-pandemic five-year average [2] - Global recycling supply is projected to increase slightly by 3% to 49 tons in 2025, mainly due to improved supply from used automotive catalysts [2] Demand Trends - Platinum jewelry demand is recovering, with a projected 5% increase in 2025, reaching 66 tons, driven by price advantages over gold. Notably, demand in China is expected to surge by 15% to 15 tons [4] - Despite uncertainties in the market, automotive demand for platinum is expected to remain resilient, with a slight decline of 2% to 95 tons in 2025, which is still 11% above the five-year average [5] - Investment demand for platinum is showing strong performance, with Q1 2025 demand rising by 28% to 14 tons, largely due to increased inflows into the U.S. market [6] Industrial Demand - Industrial platinum demand is projected to decline by 15% to 66 tons in 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in the glass sector, which is expected to see a 58% reduction in demand [7] - While some sectors like hydrogen and oil are experiencing growth, the overall industrial demand is being negatively impacted by cyclical slowdowns in specific industries [7] Market Commentary - The CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, Trevor Raymond, noted that the platinum market is facing structural shortages despite geopolitical uncertainties. The diverse demand for platinum provides significant market resilience [8] - Concerns about the strategic importance of platinum for the U.S. automotive industry may prevent the imposition of new tariffs, although over 9 tons of surplus platinum remains in certified warehouses, indicating ongoing market apprehensions [8]