通胀上行预期交易强化 油价初见跌势尽头线 2025年08月22日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3347.02美元开盘，最高上试3352.37美元，最低下探3325.08美元，报收3338.33美元，下跌9.62美元，跌幅0.29%，振幅0.82%，日K线 呈强势震荡小阴线。 周四美元指数以98.22点开盘，最高上试98.68点，最低下探98.18点，报收98.66点，上涨440点，涨幅0.45%，振幅0.51%，日K线呈震荡上行中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6888.60点开盘，最高上试6929.53点，最低下探6817.41点，报收6901.19点，上涨9.07点，涨幅0.13%，振幅2.15%， 日K线呈强势震荡小阳线。 周四市场运行看似杂乱无章，实则隐含通胀上行预期交易倾向。截止周五午盘的周内美元指数日K线，四阳一阴，总体表现强劲。但基本金属、贵金属， 尤其原油市场表现总体"先抑后扬"：周一、二基本金属、贵金属、原油市场在美元强势中承压，周三初见转折，周四则几乎无视美元继续走强而转强。 就市场表现而言，周四金价、贵 ...

铂金金条与日本贵金属店提示的铂金价格 贵金属铂金的价格行情正在走高。作为国际指标的纽约期货涨至每盎司1360美元区间，比2024年底高出 5成。涨幅远远超过黄金和美国标普500指数。在中国，以年轻人为中心，铂金首饰开始受到欢迎。中国 4~6月的铂金流入量已相当于2024年全球产量的约2成…… 贵金属铂金的价格行情正在走高。此前由于工业用途的需求放缓，行情长期低迷。与同为贵金属的黄金 相比，由于估值明显较低，作为资产配置的价值受到关注，吸引了买盘。在日本国内的贵金属商店，面 向个人的铂金金条的销量增至7倍。中国也在4～6月采购了全球年产量的2成。 在聚集着贵金属批发店和零售店的东京御徒町。在盂兰盆节过后依旧炎热的街道上，贵金属回收店门前 提示的铂金价格是每克6846日元（约合人民币333.3元）。虽然年初时日元计价行情便宜约3成，但5月 以后突然开始上涨。 一家珠宝店的女店员表示："预计价格还会上涨，来店购买铂金的客人在增加"。据说，畅销的是被称 为"喜平"的项链，其在珠宝饰品之中更容易保持资产价值。 8月19日，作为铂金价格国际指标的纽约期货（主力合约）涨至每盎司1360美元区间。比2024年底高出5 成。涨 ...

2025年8月21日，实物黄金金大福黄金报价1001元/克，相比上一个交易日下跌了4元/克。铂金价格今天 报价503元/克，相比上一个交易日上涨了2元/克。 附表： 金大福 黄金价格 铂金价格 单位 2025年8月21日 1001 503 元/克 2025年8月20日 997 501 元/克 金投网提示：以上报价仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。 基本面： 美联储自12月以来一直维持利率稳定，CME的FedWatch工具预测9月降息的可能性为85%。 美联储主席 鲍威尔可能将于周五（8月22日）在杰克森霍尔研讨会发表主题演讲，投资者将关注他是支持劳动力市 场扶持措施，还是继续关注通胀风险。 研讨会将于8月21日至23日举行。 ...

智通财经APP注意到，金价延续涨势。此前美国总统特朗普要求美联储理事丽莎.库克辞职，引发市场 对央行独立性的新担忧，从而提振了避险需求。 现货黄金交投于每盎司3,342美元上方。在特朗普以抵押贷款欺诈指控为由要求库克辞职后，金价上涨 近1%。若库克离职，总统将有机会任命更鸽派的理事。不过库克已表态有意留任。 展望后市，交易员将密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔年会上的主旨演讲，以寻找 未来政策线索。市场预计美联储下月将至少降息25个基点，这对无息资产黄金构成利好。上月美联储政 策会议纪要显示，官员们认为通胀风险已超过对劳动力市场的担忧。 惠誉解决方案旗下BMI部门在报告中指出："随着市场为美联储9月降息做准备，未来几周金价将保持高 位。我们预计2025年剩余时间内金价将在每盎司3,200至3,600美元区间波动。" 尽管今年前四个月金价已创下历史纪录并录得主要涨幅，但这一贵金属年内累计涨幅仍超25%。央行购 金和交易所交易基金(ETF)资金流入为金价提供支撑，包括瑞银集团财富管理部门在内的多家机构分析 师认为金价仍有上行空间。 截至发稿，现货黄金基本持平于每盎司3,342.40美元。媒体美元即期 ...

避险需求与投资选择 金价的火箭式蹿升，着实令人瞠目结舌。今早醒来，国际金价已然冲破3333美元/盎司的关口，国内金价也一路飙升至771.8元/克。面对如此疯狂的金价，是 该冷静观望，还是果断出手？ 投资金条：精打细算的明智之选 若论投资，金条无疑是更具性价比的选择。放眼四大行，工行金条价格为787元/克，建行为785元/克，中行则报783元/克。农行稍贵，为790元/克。尽管较 基础金价仍高出一二十元，但这部分溢价主要由加工费和手续费构成。相较于动辄溢价数百元的品牌金饰，金条在回收时的损失无疑要小得多。今日金条回 收价为761元/克，投资者可自行权衡其中的差价。 品牌金饰：溢价背后的价值考量 然而，步入金饰市场，价格却呈现出另一番景象。周大福、老凤祥等知名品牌，其黄金首饰价格已高达1002元/克，较基础金价高出200多元！这多出的费 用，实则是品牌溢价、精湛工艺费以及高昂的店面运营成本的综合体现。中国黄金等相对亲民的品牌，价格则为981元/克，两者间的差价足以购买一份精致 的小礼物。这笔差价是否值得，则取决于消费者对品牌价值的认可程度。 4-2-2-2-2 e 5.5.5.5 ter ust TO Or Q ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, providing an overview of the platinum and palladium industry, including their properties, applications, and market dynamics [4][12]. Group 1: Platinum and Palladium Overview - Platinum and palladium are part of the platinum group metals, with low abundance in the Earth's crust, primarily found in South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe [4][5]. - Both metals exhibit excellent catalytic properties due to their unique electronic structures, which allow them to lower activation energy in chemical reactions [4][9]. - Common forms of platinum and palladium in circulation include metal ingots and sheets, with a purity requirement of at least 99.95% for trading [12][13]. Group 2: Industry Chain Structure - The platinum and palladium industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream exploration and mining, midstream refining and processing, and downstream applications and recycling [14][16]. - The demand for palladium is heavily concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum has a more diversified demand across various industries, including automotive, jewelry, and investment [16]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The automotive industry is the largest consumer of both metals, with projections indicating that by 2025, automotive demand will account for 41% of platinum and 82% of palladium consumption [16]. - In the jewelry sector, platinum is favored for its durability and aesthetic qualities, contributing significantly to its demand, while palladium's jewelry consumption is minimal [16]. - Industrial applications for platinum are broader due to its superior stability, with approximately 28% of platinum demand coming from this sector, compared to only 16% for palladium [16].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, alongside expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Spot gold is trading around $3,360 per ounce, while December futures rose by 0.3% to $3,408.3 per ounce, with silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing price increases [1] - The decline in the dollar makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, stimulating physical gold demand, while lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - The current rise in gold prices reflects both risk aversion and changes in macroeconomic expectations, with soft inflation data suggesting the Fed may not need to maintain a tight stance [3] - Key factors that could influence gold prices include the Fed's guidance post-September rate cut and global economic uncertainties, which could affect safe-haven demand [3][4] - Short-term, gold bulls are in control, but there is an increasing risk of price volatility at high levels, especially if the dollar rebounds or bond yields rise [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for platinum/palladium is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are platinum - group metals with high melting points, strong catalytic activity, and corrosion resistance. Their spot benchmark pricing power is concentrated in the London Platinum and Palladium Market, and the futures pricing power is dominated by the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts [1]. - On the supply side, global platinum and palladium resources are highly concentrated, with significant oligopoly risks. China has a high degree of import dependence, and the import risk remains high for a long time [2]. - On the demand side, platinum demand fluctuates greatly, mainly from the automotive and investment sectors. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector. China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium. The hydrogen energy demand for platinum and palladium has a bright future, and the investment demand is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Basics - Platinum and palladium have similar physical and chemical properties, such as high melting points, good ductility, and strong catalytic activity. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, high - end jewelry, and the chemical industry, while palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts [1][15][16]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - **Upstream**: Global platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. China's platinum - group element reserves are less than 1% of the world's, and the supply is highly dependent on imports [20]. - **Mid - stream**: Processing includes primary metal extraction and recycling. The extraction and refining of primary platinum and palladium are complex. There are differences in the separation and purification processes of platinum and palladium, with platinum having a longer refining cycle and lower short - term supply elasticity [24][25]. - **Downstream**: Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum demand is more diversified, including automotive, jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors. There are differences in their applications in different fields [28][29][30]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Circulation and Pricing Market - Platinum and palladium are mainly circulated in the form of metal ingots and sponge metals. The current global pricing system includes the London Platinum and Palladium Market for spot pricing and the New York Mercantile Exchange for futures pricing. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts to address China's lack of pricing power [32][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Cyclical Supply and Stable Ratio of Primary to Recycled**: Global platinum and palladium supply shows cyclical characteristics. The ratio of primary to recycled supply has remained relatively stable in the long term, with palladium having a slightly higher recycling ratio [51][52]. - **Overseas Primary Supply**: Platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. The production of platinum and palladium mines has shown a downward trend in recent years. The output of leading mining enterprises has decreased, and short - term supply may remain tight [57][58][62]. - **Recycled Platinum and Palladium**: The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector. Traditional recycling regions are developed economies in Europe, America, and Japan. China's recycled platinum production has been increasing. The supply of recycled platinum and palladium is related to the vehicle scrapping cycle and policy drivers [89][90][95]. 3.5 Global Platinum and Palladium Trade and China's Supply - In international trade, platinum and palladium are mainly exported from South Africa and Russia. China, Germany, the United States, and other countries are major importers. China is highly dependent on imports for platinum and palladium, facing long - term import risks. Some domestic enterprises are investing overseas, but it is difficult to change the import - dependent pattern in the short term [100][104][107]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: This is the main demand source for platinum and palladium. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, and palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts. The demand is related to automobile production and sales, policies, and price - driven substitution effects between platinum and palladium [133][134][136]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is an ideal material for high - end jewelry, especially in the wedding market. China is the main source of demand elasticity for platinum jewelry. Jewelry demand is related to macro - economic indicators and inventory cycles [148][149][158]. - **Industrial Demand**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in the industrial field. Platinum demand in the glass and chemical industries is related to the real - estate cycle and macro - economic indicators. The demand in the electronics, petrochemical, and medical industries is relatively stable. Hydrogen energy is a future growth point for demand [159][163][166].

Group 1 - The international gold price on August 10, 2025, closed at $3397.13 per ounce, showing a slight increase of $1.50 (0.04%) from the previous day, with a trading range of $3377.43 to $3408.71 [2] - The international silver price also rose, closing at $38.30 per ounce, up 0.16% (an increase of $0.06), while platinum and palladium prices fell by $13.52 (1.00%) and $34.30 (2.93%) respectively, indicating a complex differentiation within the precious metals market [2] - Domestic gold prices from major brands showed significant variation, with Lao Feng Xiang leading at 1017 CNY per gram, while prices from other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Sheng were around 1015 CNY per gram, contrasting sharply with the lower price of 793 CNY per gram in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 783.00 CNY per gram, down 0.27 CNY (0.034%) from the previous day, with fluctuations between 780.00 CNY and 784.70 CNY [4] - Historical data on gold recycling prices (purity 99.9%) showed stability, fluctuating between 753 CNY and 770 CNY per gram, although actual recycling prices may vary due to market fluctuations and regional differences [7] - Future gold price trends are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and investor sentiment, with potential long-term price increases projected to exceed $4000 or even $5000 per ounce, despite possible short-term technical corrections [8]