Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of U.S. tariffs on China, particularly the potential for a coalition of allies to impose similar tariffs, as evidenced by Mexico's recent proposal to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Framework - The U.S. tariff policy is categorized into four areas: 1. Tariffs on China are primarily driven by competition and security concerns, leading to a hardline approach [1] 2. Economic integration with Canada and Mexico, where tariffs serve as negotiation tools rather than strict measures [1] 3. Importance of "alignment" with ideologically similar allies, with varying levels of trade restrictions based on shared values [2] 4. Focus on revitalizing specific industries in the U.S., such as automotive and steel, with less ideological influence [3] Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Implications - In the short term, the impact of potential tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China is expected to be limited, as their exports to China represent a small percentage of China's overall exports (2.5% for Mexico and 1.3% for Canada in 2024) [6] - Key industries that could be affected include aluminum and its products (9.6%), aerospace and its components (7.5%), and vehicles and their parts (7.2%) [6] - In the mid-term, the U.S. aims to create an "internal circulation" and tariff alliance that includes Canada, Mexico, and key allies, with signs of this strategy already emerging [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The potential for a "demonstration effect" exists, where if Mexico and Canada successfully negotiate tariff relief from the U.S. by imposing tariffs on China, it could set a precedent for other countries [7] - The article highlights the need for careful management of the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, especially with a projected record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, which could lead to depreciation pressures [7] - A scenario of tariff expansion could disrupt global supply chains, leading to increased overseas inflation while domestic prices remain low, necessitating a boost in domestic demand to counteract these risks [7]