Market Overview - The US dollar index fluctuated around the 98 mark, ultimately closing up 0.12% at 98.24 [1] - Spot gold initially rose to a high of 3345.25 but later fell, closing down 0.51% at 3315.60 USD/oz [1] - Spot silver decreased by 1.68%, ending at 37.37 USD/oz [1] Key News Summary - The US Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [2] - The expanded tariff list includes a wide range of products such as wind turbine components, cranes, bulldozers, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [2] - A professor from Michigan State University estimated that the current steel and aluminum tariffs affect at least 320 billion USD worth of imports based on 2024 overall import values, indicating further inflationary pressure due to rising prices [2] Trading Insights - Gold and silver continue to trade within a narrow range as traders await the next price catalyst, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming speech being a potential trigger [4] - Gold prices have remained around 3350 USD over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand, while silver lacks momentum due to a combination of industrial demand and structural deficits [4] - Short-term performance of precious metals is expected to be volatile due to multiple factors including tariff trade policies, adjustments in Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical conflicts [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the US made progress in tariff trade, reaching tariff agreements with countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. China and the US will hold the third round of economic and trade consultations, and market risk sentiment has declined, weakening the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, tariff trade policies still carry risks, leading to an oscillatory adjustment in precious metal prices. US President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates during a visit to the Fed building for renovation, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence. COMEX gold futures rose and then fell, while COMEX silver futures maintained an oscillatory trend [2]. - Capital: Last week, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold and silver [2]. - Strategy: The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, continuing to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver has a slight upward trend in the short - term, and it is advisable to look for long - entry opportunities. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy when the price drops sharply to the lower edge of the oscillatory range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key indicators' price changes: The spot price of London gold decreased by 0.35% to $3343.50 per ounce, COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 0.39% to 777.32 yuan per gram. The spot price of London silver increased by 1.22% to $38.74 per ounce, COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose by 1.28% to 9392 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Gold - silver ratio: The gold - silver ratios of both the domestic and international markets decreased compared to last week, and both continued to repair to around 80 - 85, but were significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper in the US may drive enterprises to use silver as a substitute, increasing silver demand [10]. - Price spreads between domestic and international markets: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and international markets increased compared to last week. Affected by the US tariff trade policy and the Fed's independence, precious metals showed an oscillatory trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - US dollar index: Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, causing a slight decline in the US dollar index, which supported the precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury real yields: Last week, the real yield of the 5 - year US Treasury increased slightly, while that of the 10 - year US Treasury decreased. Affected by the changing expectations of US tariff policies and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metal prices oscillated [17]. - Inflation and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.8% and slightly lower than the expected 3%. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term, and the market expects a 62.4% probability of an interest - rate cut in September [22]. - Key US economic data: - PMI: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, slightly higher than the expected 48.8, and the service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than the expected 50.6 [25]. - Retail sales: In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, reversing the decline in May. Core retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.5% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [25]. - Employment data: In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, far lower than the expected increase of 95,000. Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000 [31]. - Fed's independence: Trump's visit to the Fed and pressure on Powell to cut interest rates, as well as a lawsuit against the Fed and the criticism from the US Treasury Secretary, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [34]. - US tariff trade: The US has made progress in tariff trade, but the policy remains uncertain. The US has reached tariff agreements with some countries, and is approaching the August 1 tariff deadline. The 50% tariff on copper may bring positive factors to silver [34]. - Central bank gold purchases: 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold investments in the next 12 - 24 months. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks net - purchased 244 tons of gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which supports the price of gold in the long - term [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge funds: As of the week ending July 22, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 39,900 lots to 253,000 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 12,000 lots to 60,600 lots [38]. - ETFs: As of July 25, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons to 957.09 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 572.22 tons to 15,230.43 tons, indicating an accelerated inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - Gold and silver inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 37.7624 million ounces, a 1.53% increase from the previous week, and COMEX silver inventories were 500.3207 million ounces, a 0.62% increase. The 50% tariff on copper may drive up the price of silver due to its industrial demand [43]. - Gold and silver demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, global total gold demand increased slightly year - on - year. The global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [46]. - Key events to watch this week: This week, important events include the third round of China - US economic and trade consultations, the release of US economic data such as PCE, core PCE, and the July non - farm payroll report, the Fed's July interest - rate meeting, and the approaching August 1 tariff deadline [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 40.75 to close at 1007.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 3.89%. The September soybean meal contract rose 22 to close at 2976 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.74%. The South China soybean meal spot price closed at 2820 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The September rapeseed meal contract rose 36 to close at 2633 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2510 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.8% [4]. - The U.S. soybean market was volatile and declined last week. On one hand, the hydrothermal conditions in the production areas were suitable, and the crop growth was good. On the other hand, the U.S. unilaterally issued a tax - levy letter, reigniting trade concerns. In addition, the export sales pace of new U.S. soybean crops was slow. The July USDA report lowered the export demand for new crops, and the inventory increased slightly to 310 million bushels, which was slightly bearish. In China, the spot supply was sufficient, and the price was generally stable. The sentiment in the commodity market improved, and there was an expectation of tight supply in the distant future, so the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up [4]. - The progress of the U.S. tariff and trade policy is slow, and the difficulty of reaching an agreement has increased. Market concerns may weaken the U.S. agricultural product export market. The July USDA report is generally slightly bearish, with the export demand for new crops lowered and the ending inventory slightly increased to 310 million bushels. The weather in the production areas will be good in the next two weeks, which is conducive to crop growth. The U.S. soybean may fluctuate widely. In China, there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in the near term, the soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the spot price is stable. Under the expectation of China's anti - involution policy, the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. The soybean procurement pace in the fourth quarter is slow. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1007.50 | 1048.25 | - 40.75 | - 3.89% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 465.00 | 2.00 | 0.43% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 452.00 | 448.00 | 4.00 | 0.89% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 32.57 | - 98.05 | 65.48 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2976.00 | 2954.00 | 22.00 | 0.74% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2633.00 | 2597.00 | 36.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 343.00 | 357.00 | - 14.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2830.00 | 2820.00 | 10.00 | 0.35% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2820.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 156.00 | - 134.00 | - 22.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybean market fell last week due to suitable hydrothermal conditions in the production areas, reignited trade concerns, slow export sales of new crops, and a slightly bearish USDA report. In China, the soybean meal market was stable in the short term with sufficient supply, and the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up due to improved market sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the future [4][7]. - The July USDA report shows that for the 2024/2025 season, the U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 15 million bushels to 1.865 billion bushels, the residual balance was slightly lowered, and the ending inventory remained unchanged at 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 season, the planting area was 83.4 million acres, 0.1 million acres less than the June report. The yield per acre remained at 52.5 bushels. The crushing demand was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, the export demand was lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 310 million bushels, an increase of 15 million bushels compared with the June report. The adjustment in South America was limited and in line with expectations. The report is generally slightly bearish [8]. - As of the week of July 6, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, in line with market expectations. The emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. As of the week of July 8, about 9% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas will be higher than normal and the temperature will be lower than the average in the next 15 days [8][9]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 503,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.439 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.4%. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 248,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1.837 million tons [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel [10]. - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, compared with 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. According to the official shipping schedule of Brazilian ports, the expected export volume in July is 11.929 million tons, a significant increase compared with 9.579 million tons in the same period last year. The export volume in June was 13.931 million tons, and it is expected to remain at a high level in August but with a more moderate increase [10]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.364 million tons, 294,700 tons less than the previous week and 645,100 tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, 130,800 tons more than the previous week and 260,300 tons less than the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 6.127 million tons, 2.804 million tons more than the previous week and 79,000 tons less than the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.88 million tons, 208,000 tons less than the previous week and 824,200 tons more than the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 131,620 tons, including 95,820 tons of spot trading and 35,800 tons of forward trading. The average daily pick - up volume was 183,540 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2954 million tons. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.92 days [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Brazil exported 1.91795097 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July, with an average daily export volume of 479,487.74 tons, 2% less than the average daily export volume in July last year [13]. - Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in Rosario. This will be Argentina's first soybean meal export to China [13]. - As of the week of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%. The growth stages of rapeseed in Manitoba vary widely [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to remain at a high level in July and August. The estimated export volume in the first half of this year is 80.915 million tons, more than 75.709 million tons in the same period last year [14]. - The estimated total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso in the 2025/2026 season is 48.55 million tons, with an estimated output of 47.18 million tons and an initial inventory of 1.36 million tons. The total demand is estimated to be 47.61 million tons, and the ending inventory is 940,000 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous estimate. The estimated output is 7.29% less than that in the 2024/2025 season, mainly due to lower productivity. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.67% [14]. - Argentine farmers will prefer to plant corn over soybeans in the 2025/2026 season due to high soybean export tax rates, low prices, and low profit margins [15]. - As of June 30, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.84 million tons, compared with 3.49 million tons last year. The soybean imports were 14.52 million tons, compared with 13.2 million tons last year. The soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, compared with 15.28 million tons last year. The rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons, compared with 5.68 million tons last year [15]. - As of the week of July 2, Argentine farmers sold 2.1634 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 25.5779 million tons. They also sold 140,700 tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 405,100 tons [15]. - The estimated rapeseed output of the EU 27 + UK in the 2025/2026 season is 20.3 million tons, with an estimated range between 19.3 million tons and 21.3 million tons [16]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, RMB exchange rates, soybean crushing margins in different regions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data charts [17][18][21][24][26][28].

Core Viewpoint - Han Gao Group's IPO registration has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, allowing it to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, despite facing challenges such as declining outdoor furniture sales and product quality issues [1][3][4]. Group 1: IPO and Financials - Han Gao Group plans to issue no more than 40.01 million shares, accounting for at least 10% of the total share capital, aiming to raise 420 million yuan for various projects including an automated manufacturing base and R&D center [3]. - The company has experienced consistent revenue growth, but its outdoor furniture sales have shown a downward trend, with sales volumes dropping from 300,000 units in 2021 to 173,400 units in 2023 [4]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Outdoor furniture sales revenue decreased from 238 million yuan in 2021 to 188 million yuan in 2023, with year-on-year declines of 8.23% in 2022 and 14.15% in 2023 [4]. - The company's overseas revenue also declined from 373 million yuan in 2021 to 270 million yuan in 2023, indicating a trend of decreasing international sales [5]. Group 3: Product Quality Issues - Han Gao Group has faced scrutiny for product quality, with its "Han Gao" brand smart clothes drying rack being listed among non-compliant products by the Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee [6]. - The company has previously appeared on China's top ten quality blacklist for home products due to multiple instances of product non-compliance [6]. Group 4: Return and Exchange Trends - The return and exchange amounts for the company's e-commerce model increased from 9.06 million yuan in 2021 to 8.88 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to consumer returns during the no-reason return period [7]. - The total return and exchange amount across all channels was 12.46 million yuan in 2024, down from 16.16 million yuan in 2023 [8]. Group 5: Dealer Management Risks - The company has highlighted risks associated with dealer management, as a significant portion of its domestic revenue comes from offline dealers, which accounted for 49.81% to 57.44% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [9][10]. - The number of dealers has fluctuated, with 80 new dealers added in 2022 but 49 exiting, indicating potential instability in dealer relationships [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of U.S. tariffs on China, particularly the potential for a coalition of allies to impose similar tariffs, as evidenced by Mexico's recent proposal to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Framework - The U.S. tariff policy is categorized into four areas: 1. Tariffs on China are primarily driven by competition and security concerns, leading to a hardline approach [1] 2. Economic integration with Canada and Mexico, where tariffs serve as negotiation tools rather than strict measures [1] 3. Importance of "alignment" with ideologically similar allies, with varying levels of trade restrictions based on shared values [2] 4. Focus on revitalizing specific industries in the U.S., such as automotive and steel, with less ideological influence [3] Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Implications - In the short term, the impact of potential tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China is expected to be limited, as their exports to China represent a small percentage of China's overall exports (2.5% for Mexico and 1.3% for Canada in 2024) [6] - Key industries that could be affected include aluminum and its products (9.6%), aerospace and its components (7.5%), and vehicles and their parts (7.2%) [6] - In the mid-term, the U.S. aims to create an "internal circulation" and tariff alliance that includes Canada, Mexico, and key allies, with signs of this strategy already emerging [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The potential for a "demonstration effect" exists, where if Mexico and Canada successfully negotiate tariff relief from the U.S. by imposing tariffs on China, it could set a precedent for other countries [7] - The article highlights the need for careful management of the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, especially with a projected record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, which could lead to depreciation pressures [7] - A scenario of tariff expansion could disrupt global supply chains, leading to increased overseas inflation while domestic prices remain low, necessitating a boost in domestic demand to counteract these risks [7]