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美方试探与中国打关税战,贝森特在G7会议上尴尬碰壁,欧洲领导人选择集体沉默!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 03:55
Group 1 - The ongoing dynamics of the US-China trade war continue to attract global attention, with a superficial 90-day "truce" masking underlying tensions [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's proposal for a 200% secondary tariff on China at the G7 meeting was met with silence from other leaders, indicating a lack of support for aggressive tariff policies [1] - European countries, including Germany, Italy, and Japan, are closely tied to China's supply chains, leading to reluctance in supporting US measures against China [1] Group 2 - European nations are cautious about becoming collateral damage in the US-China trade war, having already experienced economic losses, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing [3] - China's countermeasures against US and European sanctions have been strategic, targeting specific European banks to convey the potential consequences of siding with the US [3] - The anticipated trade volume between China and Europe is projected to exceed 700 billion euros in 2024, with Germany's annual car sales in China reaching 2 million units, highlighting the economic interdependence [5] Group 3 - The US faces a strategic dilemma, balancing its hardline stance against China with the fragile state of its economic recovery, as tariffs have led to increased consumer prices [5] - The silence from European nations regarding the proposed 200% tariffs reflects their complex economic interests and a shift towards seeking a balance between the US and China [5] - The evolving relationship among China, the US, and Europe suggests a move towards multilateralism, with Europe unlikely to fully align with the US but instead aiming to maximize its own interests [7]
“新套路”:如果墨西哥也对中国加关税?(民生宏观邵翔)
川阅全球宏观· 2025-03-03 14:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of U.S. tariffs on China, particularly the potential for a coalition of allies to impose similar tariffs, as evidenced by Mexico's recent proposal to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Framework - The U.S. tariff policy is categorized into four areas: 1. Tariffs on China are primarily driven by competition and security concerns, leading to a hardline approach [1] 2. Economic integration with Canada and Mexico, where tariffs serve as negotiation tools rather than strict measures [1] 3. Importance of "alignment" with ideologically similar allies, with varying levels of trade restrictions based on shared values [2] 4. Focus on revitalizing specific industries in the U.S., such as automotive and steel, with less ideological influence [3] Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Implications - In the short term, the impact of potential tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China is expected to be limited, as their exports to China represent a small percentage of China's overall exports (2.5% for Mexico and 1.3% for Canada in 2024) [6] - Key industries that could be affected include aluminum and its products (9.6%), aerospace and its components (7.5%), and vehicles and their parts (7.2%) [6] - In the mid-term, the U.S. aims to create an "internal circulation" and tariff alliance that includes Canada, Mexico, and key allies, with signs of this strategy already emerging [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The potential for a "demonstration effect" exists, where if Mexico and Canada successfully negotiate tariff relief from the U.S. by imposing tariffs on China, it could set a precedent for other countries [7] - The article highlights the need for careful management of the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, especially with a projected record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, which could lead to depreciation pressures [7] - A scenario of tariff expansion could disrupt global supply chains, leading to increased overseas inflation while domestic prices remain low, necessitating a boost in domestic demand to counteract these risks [7]