Core Viewpoint - The global nickel price has entered a sustained upward trend since late December 2025, driven by tightening supply policies from Indonesia, capital market dynamics, and changes in futures market inventory and trading mechanisms [2][10]. Supply Side: Indonesia's Quota Reduction - Indonesia, which accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, has significantly reduced its nickel ore production quota for 2026 to 250-260 million tons, down over 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, establishing a fundamental support for rising nickel prices [3][4]. - The Indonesian government aims to stabilize nickel prices between $19,000 and $20,000 per ton, reflecting a strategic shift from "capacity expansion" to "value enhancement" in its nickel industry [3][4]. Capital Side: Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in nickel prices is largely attributed to capital market speculation following the announcement of Indonesia's quota reduction, with bullish capital quickly increasing positions in the futures market [5][6]. - The market has shown a clear division between long and short positions, with domestic industrial capital primarily focusing on hedging, while international markets exhibit a mixed position structure [6][7]. Market Side: Inventory and Mechanism Adjustments - Continuous slight declines in LME nickel inventory and adjustments to trading rules on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have reinforced signals for rising nickel prices [8][9]. - As of January 23, LME nickel inventory decreased by 768 tons to 283,728 tons, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding nickel supply [8]. Trend Analysis and Market Commentary - The current rise in nickel prices is supported by fundamental factors and market signals, indicating a transition from a bottoming phase to an upward trend, with long-term price increases likely [10][12]. - The technical analysis shows that nickel prices have broken through key resistance levels, suggesting further upward potential, with the current prices still positioned in the lower range of historical levels [10][12]. Long-term Industry Logic - The essence of the current nickel price increase is Indonesia's revaluation of its nickel resources, transitioning from a focus on quantity to enhancing price and value through supply tightening [12][13]. - This strategic shift is expected to reshape the global nickel market's supply-demand dynamics, moving from a state of oversupply to a tighter balance [12][13].