2026 年 3 月 1 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 行情观点： 沪镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性。印尼目前并行配额审批、违规开采罚款、环境治理等 多方面资源管理动作，盘面投机属性主导，持仓量高位仍在增加，盘面体现为"预期定方向，现实定弹 性"。虽然现实面镍仍然是高库存累库，或限制镍价的弹性，但是在边际上，矿端紧缺矛盾的预期逐步照 进现实，基于配额供应担忧，以及印尼季节性斋月，叠加菲律宾雨季难以回补，矿端偏紧的现实在 3 月难 有明显缓和，目前印尼镍矿明显上涨，1.6%品位镍矿总价 2 月同比/环比+23/+14 美金至 68 美金，个别成 交或更高，传导至一体化火法现金成本抬升至 13 万元/吨。在估值角度来看，若矿端矛盾在二季度至年中 降温，或出现年中至三季度湿法投产进度取代火法边际成本的逻辑，不过，短线边际成本仍然是一体化火 法路径，而且在 3 月印尼补充配额和菲律宾供应释放故事无法确定的阶段，交易面仍然是以现实矿端矛盾 为主，而且边际成本上移或增加区 ...

成本抬升支撑镍价偏强 震荡 镍周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周菲律宾镍矿受春节假期与雨季双重影响，交易清淡、供应受限，叠加矿价偏高与冶炼厂节前备库充足，需求整体疲软。印尼镍矿 市场聚焦 RKAB 开采配额审批，配额大幅收紧致冶炼厂缺矿压力凸显，叠加雨季与斋月临近扰动生产，供应增量受限。尽管印尼内贸基准价格 小幅回落，但多重供应约束支撑国内升水趋强，整体价格偏强格局未改。 ◆ 镍铁：本周高镍生铁价格维持强势，周五SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1085元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受上游挺价推动。供应端方面，上游 厂商报价依旧维持坚挺，价格支撑较强。需求端，下游刚需采购有所释放，高镍生铁成交量环比回升，带动市场价格重心上移。整体来看，上 下游博弈仍在延续，但在刚需成交的支撑下，高镍生铁价格继续走强。 ◆ 中 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、精炼镍产量季节性变动 | | 3 | | | 二、不锈钢低价原料不足，保持淡季去库 | | 8 | | | 三、三元需求淡季不淡 | | 16 | | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 22 | | | 免责声明 | | | 24 | 有色板块研发报告 镍 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情回顾】 2 月，镍价先跌后涨，运行区间收窄，低点下探 13 万，高点却也不足 14.5 万。当前市场交易逻辑被印尼镍产品供应扰动主导，不断有新消息刺 激市场神经。2 月横跨春节长假，节前资金流出避险，价格回调；节后下游 逐步复工，市场情绪回暖，资金重返镍市，呈现量价齐增的格局。 【市场展望】 宏观层面，地缘政治冲突加剧、货币贬值压力显现、通胀预期升温，资 金流入商品市场，有色板块虽然 1 月冲高后技术性回调，但中长期涨势尚未 结束。产业 ...

（来源：矿业俱乐部） 印尼能矿部的一纸文件，让全球镍市场瞬间点燃。沪镍期货价格一度冲破14万元/吨，伦镍应声涨超3%。但对于中国镍企来说，比价格波动更值得焦虑 的，是一个根本性问题：印尼关闸之后，国内的矿还能撑多久？ 中国镍矿资源的基本面可以用一句话概括：储量不算少，但"能吃的"不多。 根据自然资源部数据，中国已探明镍金属储量约1100万吨，在全球排名靠前。但如果把这些储量掰开看，问题就出来了： 第一，禀赋先天不足。国内镍矿以硫化镍矿为主，主要分布在甘肃金川、新疆喀拉通克、吉林磐石等地。这类矿床埋藏深、开采难度大、成本高，与印 尼、菲律宾的红土镍矿相比，先天处于成本劣势。 第二，品位逐年下降。以金川矿山为例，上世纪开采时平均品位超过1.2%，如今已降至0.6%-0.7%区间。这意味着，处理同样一吨矿石，能拿到的镍金属 量几乎腰斩。 第三，产量天花板明显。国内镍矿年产量长期徘徊在10万-12万金属吨之间，且已逼近产能上限。即便满负荷运转，也满足不了国内300万吨级的年消费量 ——对外依存度长期维持在85%以上。 "家里有矿，但能端上桌的，不够一顿饱饭。" 这不是第一次被印尼"卡脖子"，也不会是最后一次。每一次海 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - For stainless steel, the cost - support center has shifted upward, and inventory accumulation during the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 137,950, with a change of 2,760 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract is 14,085, with a change of 225 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 133,057, a decrease of 246,471 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract is 126,039, a decrease of 97,844 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,900, with a change of 2,400 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,054, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons [4] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [6]

Core Viewpoint - A landslide occurred at a waste storage site belonging to PT QMB New Energy Materials Co. Ltd., resulting in the death of one worker and the loss of several excavators, bulldozers, and dump trucks [1] Group 1 - The landslide took place at one of the world's largest nickel smelting hubs [1] - The incident involved multiple heavy machinery being swept away, indicating significant operational disruption [1] - A statement from IMIP confirmed the details of the landslide and its impact on equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia has drastically reduced its nickel mining quota from 42 million wet tons to 12 million wet tons, a 71% cut, causing significant disruption in the global nickel supply chain and impacting various industries reliant on nickel, particularly electric vehicle and battery manufacturers [1][2]. Industry Impact - The reduction in nickel supply has led to a surge in nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange, indicating the effectiveness of Indonesia's strategy to create artificial scarcity [2]. - Companies like Tsingshan Holding Group, which invested heavily in Indonesia's nickel processing infrastructure, face increased cash flow pressures and potential contract fulfillment issues due to the sudden quota cut [3][5]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S. aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese control over critical minerals, which could further complicate the supply chain dynamics for nickel and other metals [3][5]. Market Dynamics - Indonesia's actions are seen as a move to regain pricing power in the nickel market, with the government aiming for nickel prices to rise to between $19,000 and $20,000 per ton [1][27]. - The potential for price volatility exists, as companies may pivot to alternative battery technologies if nickel prices rise excessively, which could undermine Indonesia's market position [13][27]. - The global metal pricing system is evolving, with China pushing for the internationalization of nickel futures to establish a pricing center in Asia, countering Indonesia's supply manipulation [9][10]. Technological Considerations - Indonesia's reliance on its mineral resources is challenged by China's advanced nickel processing technologies, which could limit Indonesia's ability to capitalize on its raw material reserves without foreign expertise [6][20]. - The ongoing development of alternative battery technologies, such as sodium-ion batteries, could reduce the demand for nickel, further complicating Indonesia's strategy [13][20]. Long-term Outlook - The current situation highlights the fragility of global supply chains in the face of national interests, with countries potentially using resource nationalism as a tool for economic leverage [15][22]. - The potential for increased environmental scrutiny and community pushback against nickel mining in Indonesia could further complicate the country's ability to maintain its production levels [20]. - The long-term viability of Indonesia's nickel strategy may be at risk if it fails to adapt to the rapidly changing technological landscape and the evolving demands of the global market [20][22].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that under Indonesia's tightening nickel supply policy, the joint venture PT Weda Bay Nickel has received preliminary notification from Indonesian authorities to submit an annual work plan and budget with a production quota of 12 million tons, significantly down from previous approvals [1][3] - The initial work plan approved for 2025 was 32 million tons, which was later raised to 42 million tons, indicating a reduction of over 71% in the current year's mining quota [3][4] - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer, and the annual work plan and budget (RKAB) must be approved by the government to regulate production quotas and operational arrangements [3][4] Group 2 - The Indonesian government plans to set the total nickel mining production quota for 2026 between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is a decrease of about 30% compared to 379 million tons in 2025 [4][5] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's policy aims to "raise resource value" by tightening nickel supply to increase prices and attract more investors, especially in light of recent low nickel prices [5][6] - There is a projected gap of 30 million to 40 million tons in nickel supply for 2026, indicating a potential shift from a relatively loose market in 2025 to a systemic shortage if the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources does not approve additional quotas [5][6] Group 3 - Companies like Greenmei have responded to the tightening supply by terminating plans for capital increases in their Indonesian subsidiary, which has a production capacity of 50,000 tons of high-nickel battery precursor materials [6][7] - Greenmei has secured long-term supply agreements with major nickel suppliers in Indonesia to ensure production needs are met despite the reduced quotas [6][7] - Huayou Cobalt has also indicated that its nickel supply will be secured through joint ventures and long-term supply agreements, with market-based procurement as a supplement [6][7] Group 4 - Despite expectations of supply shortages, nickel prices have not shown a sustained upward trend recently, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping by 3.66% to 135,200 yuan per ton [8][9] - Analysts note that while nickel prices have begun to rise, the market is still experiencing a slight supply-demand gap, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices over the long term [9]

Group 1 - Indonesia is implementing strict production limits on its nickel industry, significantly reducing the annual production quota of PT Weda Bay Nickel from 4.2 million tons in 2025 to 1.2 million tons in 2026, a decrease of over 70% [1] - The country aims to reverse the long-term decline in nickel prices, as its nickel supply accounts for approximately 65% of the global market, which has pressured prices and led to production halts in Australia and New Caledonia [1] - Indonesia plans to lower its national nickel production target for 2026 from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260 million tons, with a series of tightening measures expected to support a rapid rebound in nickel prices and create bullish market expectations [1] Group 2 - Eramet has confirmed the quota reduction and plans to apply for a revision, while the Weda Bay Nickel mine, located in Indonesia's North Maluku province, was initially set to expand production to over 6 million tons, a plan that is now unfeasible [2] - Weda Bay Nickel has been a core source of nickel supply in Indonesia, characterized by strong "park closure" and "related transactions," with nearly all output used to meet the smelting capacity within the Weda Bay Industrial Park [2] - Some companies in the industrial park are now forced to import nickel ore from the Philippines due to insufficient local raw materials, highlighting the impact of regulatory shocks on supply chains [2] Group 3 - Zhongwei New Materials holds equity in multiple nickel mines in Indonesia and has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore, establishing four nickel raw material industrial bases that cover a full product matrix from nickel ore to various nickel products [3] - The company has diversified its nickel supply in response to the production limits at Weda Bay Nickel, ensuring that its own nickel mines near the Debang project will prioritize supply for that project, providing a safety net for its business operations [3] - Zhongwei New Materials is a global leader in the field of nickel-based materials for new energy, ranking first in global shipments of nickel materials from 2020 to 2025, with a projected market share of 31.7% for high-nickel ternary precursors in 2024 [3][4]