李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 2025 年 8 月 25 日 宏观预期或仍摇摆 镍价区间震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 镍周报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 宏观面，报告期内，市场对美联储的降息预期再度转向。在 经济数据表现尚可驱动下，美联储部分官员发布鹰派言论。 认为关税导致的通胀压力依然大于劳动力市场走弱的压力， 市场对9月联储降息的预期由前期的95%左右降至上周五的 75%附近。 ⚫ 基本面：海外镍矿供给延续宽松预期，红土镍矿 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].

本周菲律宾镍矿价格暂稳。菲律宾到中国菲律宾红土镍矿NI1.3%CIF价格为41~43美元/湿吨， NI1.4%CIF价格为49~51美元/湿吨，NI1.5%CIF价格为56~58美元/湿吨。本周菲律宾所有装点均有降 雨，装运条件仍不理想。不过，随着发运量进入高峰，镍矿港口库存持续增加，供应充足。 沪镍窄幅波动，主力合约收跌0.3%，报119830元/吨。7月国内镍矿、镍铁与精炼镍进口显著提升，国内 镍元素供应显著上升。美联储7月纪要释放鹰派信号，海外风偏持续收缩，基本面和宏观面均缺乏明显 驱动，沪镍延续震荡格局。 对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，当前镍产业矛盾集中于不锈钢市场表现，"不锈钢-镍矿-一级镍"的压力 传导路径决定了一级镍的成本中枢位置，近期不锈钢在修复至13000附近后持续回调，市场情绪再度悲 观，我们判断库存和供给压力仍在。展望后市，不锈钢传统旺季需求表现有待观察，主要关注龙头钢厂 出货节奏，镍价短期缺乏驱动，整体维持偏弱判断。 近期镍价小幅下跌，下游企业入场采购有所增加，精炼镍现货交投尚可。各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水多持 稳，金川及俄镍资源现货升贴水小幅上涨。目前不锈钢下游需求仍偏弱，虽然国内不锈钢企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel price: Under the fundamental logic, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent developments in Indonesia, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation. The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, which drags down the upside of the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Also, beware of potential policies in Indonesia, such as cracking down on illegal mining, changing the RKAB approval cycle, and the APNI's suggestion to re - evaluate the nickel - ore HPM formula [1]. - Stainless - steel price: The pressure in the real - world market needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price will fluctuate. The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis Nickel - The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, dragging down the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Be vigilant against potential policies in Indonesia [1]. Stainless Steel - The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 1,520 tons to 22,141 tons, spot inventory increasing by 443 tons to 13,755 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 5,390 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [3][4]. - The nickel - iron inventory in mid - August was 33,111 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous half - month and a 45% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is high but has slightly eased [5]. - On August 14, 2025, the total stainless - steel social inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 610,718 tons, a 1.93% decrease, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 468,182 tons, a 3.19% decrease [5]. - The nickel - ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 618,200 wet tons to 10,951,600 wet tons, with 10,680,000 wet tons from the Philippines. By grade, low - nickel high - iron ore was 6,089,500 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,862,100 wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the verified illegal companies and conduct an audit of the entire park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining - quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The APNI revealed that the government - approved 2025 RKAB production target is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesia's ESDM requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance due to capacity restrictions, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending long - term supply - agreement deliveries in August [8]. - The Indonesian president stated that they will crack down on illegal mining and have received reports on 1,063 illegal mines [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices of related products in the industrial chain, such as nickel imports, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, high - carbon ferrochrome, and battery - grade nickel sulfate [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and US tariff agreements impact metal prices. After the nickel price followed the anti - involution sentiment and declined, the industry chain's continuous losses still provide strong cost support. The fundamentals have changed little, with pure nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. In August, the production schedules of domestic electrowinning nickel and Indonesian secondary nickel continued to rise. During the traditional off - season, downstream demand was sluggish. Although there was an expectation of increased stainless - steel production in August, there were many disturbances from production cuts and maintenance due to policies, and the spot market transactions were weak. The improvement in the ternary industry chain was limited, with the growth rate of electric vehicle retail sales slowing down in July and the market share of ternary batteries being continuously squeezed by lithium iron phosphate. As the rainy season was coming to an end, nickel ore port inventories continued to accumulate, and there was an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Main Viewpoints**: Macro factors and cost support affect nickel price; fundamentals show oversupply, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season [10]. - **Industry News**: In July 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel project produced over 10,000 tons of nickel in a single month. Some steel mills actively controlled production in response to the national "anti - involution" policy, and northern steel mills planned maintenance from late August to early September [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventory increased by 3150 tons, domestic inventory increased by 745 tons, and global visible nickel inventory increased by 1.57% to 253,000 tons. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3, with a premium of +24 as the mainstream. In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74%, and the estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. In August, domestic stainless - steel production was scheduled to be 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For nickel, due to the increasing production capacity of Indonesian secondary nickel and domestic electrowinning nickel and the slowdown in off - season demand growth, the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, affected by macro sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of [117,000, 125,000] yuan/ton, and a sell - on - rally strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the current anti - involution production cuts still support the stainless - steel market. However, in the long - term, the oversupply will suppress price increases. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,300, 13,200] yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended when the price rebounds to the upper end of the range [10]. 02盘面回顾 - Nickel prices continued to fluctuate, and relevant data on domestic liquidity positions, spot premiums, and price differences between the two markets were presented [12][13]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore ports saw inventory accumulation, and ore prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines was mostly CIF42, and that from the Philippines to Indonesia was mostly CIF41. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3 [16][17]. - **Nickel Iron**: In July, the total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 178,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 20.61%. The market quotation for nickel iron was firm, with the mainstream price ranging from 930 - 940 yuan/nickel [21]. - **Intermediate Products**: In July, nickel intermediate products increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 54,400 tons. The price followed the increase in nickel prices, the production cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the loss situation worsened [25]. - **Imports**: In June, nickel iron imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [28]. - **Inventory**: This week, LME inventory increased by 3150 tons to 212,200 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 745 tons to 39,300 tons. Spot transactions were generally cold [32]. - **Electrowinning Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. The estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. There were also detailed plans for domestic and Indonesian electrowinning nickel projects [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Some steel mills planned production cuts and maintenance. The loss of integrated production narrowed, and the economic efficiency of scrap stainless steel became more prominent. Stainless - steel inventory continued to decline, but the social inventory was still high. Demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the traditional off - season [40][44][51]. - **Ternary Industry Chain**: In August, the production of lithium batteries increased, and the production of the ternary industry chain also increased, but the improvement in demand was limited [56]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In the first half of the year, domestic electric vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, with a sales penetration rate of 44.3%. The share of ternary batteries was squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [60]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global nickel supply surplus is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 389.3 million tons, while the total demand is 354.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 34.8 million tons. In China, the supply surplus is also expected to be 16.2 million tons in 2025 [70].

2025 年 8 月 10 日 端涉辑限 駒. 冶炼 空博弈加剧,钢价震荡运 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 增加 437 吨至 12014 吨，保税区库存减少 400 吨至 5190 吨。LME 镍库存增加 5160 吨至 209082 吨。 2）有色网 7 月底镍铁库存 33415 吨，月环比-10%,同比+56%, 库存压力偏高，边际稍有缓和。 报告导读: 沪線基本面:预计镍价窄幅震荡运行,关注区间操作和双卖期权策略。矿端支撑逻辑削弱,冶炼瑞逻 辑限制弹性。全球精炼镍显性库存趋势回归温和增加,对镍价上方形成拖累,长远端的低成本供应增量预 期可能会动摇成本曲线格局,不过,下半年成本曲线仍暂时参照火法一体化路径,因此短线線价或呈现出 深跌有难度,但上方存在压制的格局。从相对估值来看,短线镍铁环节库存高位有所松动,带动价格底部 轻微上修,从转产经济性的角度稍微提振镍价上方空间,但是幅度有限。整体而言,基本面矛盾不够凸显, 弹性有限,盘面边际跟随板块的宏观情绪变化。多头主要关注点在于矿端,配额增加向矿端价格传导,但 整体跌幅相对温和,火法现金成本下移 2%左 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The nickel market is experiencing intensified long - short competition, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range [1]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a game between the reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations, resulting in steel price fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 121,850, up 780 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 13,000, up 65 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 96,611, up 8,771 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 85,499, up 3,480 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,350, up 50 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 919, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,440, up 40 from T - 1 [2]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff fight and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% nickel - iron with a single - line annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, including improper wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailing areas. The government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire park [3]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel - mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to reduce nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets (RKAB) starting in October 2025 [5]. - Due to capacity limitations and a 5% annual production reduction target, a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral market sentiment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market experiences intensified long - short game, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by supply - demand realities, while raw material costs limit the downside space [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,910, down 890 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,960, up 40 from T - 5. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 84,818, down 35,117 from T - 5; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 79,826, down 58,935 from T - 5 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,100, down 650 from T - 5; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 916, up 5 from T - 5. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,000, up 100 from T - 5; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,500, up 100 from T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario, Canada's provincial governor Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire industrial park [3][4] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [4] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks' EF production lines have suspended production due to long - term losses, with an expected impact on nickel - iron production of about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) emphasized that mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [6]