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IMF警示亚洲金融脆弱性上升 贸易不确定性或推高利率
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 14:26
Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for Asia to 4.5% for 2025, highlighting the need for caution despite this positive outlook [1] - Current economic resilience in Asia is partly driven by temporary factors such as preemptive procurement to avoid US tariffs and the boost from the AI boom on traditional export categories like consumer electronics [1] - The IMF warns that historical growth engines are weakening due to factors like aging populations, slowing productivity growth, and rising youth unemployment, which increase the uncertainty in the trade environment [1] Group 2 - The IMF emphasizes the need for Asian economies to shift focus towards domestic demand and deepen regional integration to sustain growth [1] - Policy recommendations include targeted fiscal support for sectors affected by tariffs, interest rate cuts at appropriate times, and advancing trade and investment reforms [1] - The IMF notes that trade policy uncertainty could raise interest rates, tighten financial conditions, exacerbate debt vulnerabilities, and suppress growth [1] Group 3 - Despite strong growth, India's economy faces challenges from US high tariff policies, but there are opportunities for further integration into global supply chains through labor law reforms and trade liberalization [2] - The IMF acknowledges the positive impact of India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform in mitigating some adverse effects of tariffs and calls for improvements in the business environment [2] - For South Korea, the IMF forecasts a growth rate of 0.9% in 2025, with a rebound to 1.8% in 2026, driven by improved domestic consumption and macroeconomic policy support, although growth remains below the 2.0% level of 2024 due to cumulative effects of US tariffs [2]