Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a significant increase, rising nearly 1% at one point, driven by strong performances from Nvidia, AppLovin, and Microsoft [2][3] - Gold prices reached a new high, pushing the market value of gold held by the U.S. Treasury to exceed $1 trillion [3] Group 2: Company Stock Movements - AppLovin Corporation's stock rose by 5.80% to $708.68 [4] - Micron Technology's stock increased by 4.33% to $164.08 [4] - Nvidia's stock saw a rise of 2.36%, reaching $182.22 [4] - Other notable stock movements included AMD (+2.17%), ASML (+2.01%), and ARM (+1.10%) [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Government Actions - The market is focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report to assess labor market resilience, with expectations of two more rate cuts by January [6][7] - Concerns about a potential government shutdown are rising, which could delay the release of important economic data [6] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it would suspend all operations and economic data releases during a government shutdown [8]

外汇周报 | 2025-09-28 美国方面，8 月 PCE 年率为 2.7%，核心 PCE 为 2.9%，表明消费和服务端价格具有较强支撑。制造业端的 PPI 同比与环比均下滑，反映成本动力在减弱。初请失业金人数的上升则暗示劳动力市场可能开始松动，这样的通胀 ——就业错位使市场对美联储原定的降息路径产生疑虑。再加上美国近期提出对药品、厨柜等商品加征较高关税 政策，使政策环境的不确定性进一步强化美元走势的黏性。 中国方面，出口增速继续回落，进口恢复力度不足，外需制约仍在。8 月 CPI 同比下降 0.4%，PPI 同比下降 2.9%， 通缩压力尚存但降幅收窄。金融层面，新增贷款和社会融资虽出现回升，但力度偏温。汇率层面，目前逆周期因 子尚未启动。 从基本面来看，1）经济预期差(chā)利好人民币：美国 PCE/核心 PCE 显示通胀有黏性但生产端与就业边际走弱， 中国通缩压力边际缓解；2）中美利差(chā)中性：美国债券收益率仍高位，国内利率稳定，利差虽缩窄但未逆转， 对人民币支撑有限；3）贸易政策不确定性中性：关税政策与贸易摩擦可能反复，但其影响尚未形成明确方向性。 其他货币 欧元：欧元兑美元走势偏弱，整体 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has officially implemented a trade agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts effective from August 1 [1] - The European automotive industry is facing significant challenges, with major manufacturers reporting profit declines or losses due to U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The new tariff rate is substantially higher than the previous 2.5%, exacerbating the financial strain on European carmakers [1][2] Summary by Category Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. has announced a 15% tariff on EU automotive exports, which is a significant increase from the previous 2.5% rate [1] - Tariff exemptions have been granted for certain EU exports, including softwood and pharmaceuticals [1] Financial Performance of European Automakers - Major European automakers are experiencing a "complete collapse" in profits, with Volkswagen's net profit for the first half of 2025 dropping to €4.005 billion, a 37% decrease [1] - BMW reported a net profit of €4.015 billion, down 29% year-on-year, while Stellantis shifted from a profit of €5.6 billion to a loss of €2.256 billion due to delayed model development [1] Future Outlook - European car manufacturers are revising their earnings forecasts downward, with Volkswagen lowering its operating profit margin expectations from 5.5%-6.5% to 4%-5% [1] - Experts predict that the trend of declining earnings may worsen in the latter half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The US government has officially implemented a trade agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts effective from August 1 [1] - European automakers have been significantly impacted, with major companies reporting profit declines or losses in the first half of 2025 due to US tariff policies [1] - Volkswagen's US sales decreased by 10% year-on-year, while Mercedes-Benz's sales fell by 6% [1] Group 2 - The overall financial performance of European car manufacturers is described as a "complete collapse," with Volkswagen's net profit for the first half of 2025 at €4.005 billion, down 37% year-on-year, and an additional cost of €1.3 billion due to US tariffs [1] - BMW reported a net profit of €4.015 billion, a 29% decline, while Stellantis shifted from a profit of €5.6 billion in the previous year to a loss of €2.256 billion [1] - Major European car manufacturers have revised their earnings forecasts downward, with Volkswagen lowering its operating profit margin expectation for 2025 from 5.5%-6.5% to 4%-5% [1] Group 3 - The uncertainty of US trade policies is causing severe impacts on the European automotive industry, which is a crucial pillar of the European economy, directly or indirectly affecting millions of jobs [2] - European car manufacturers face the dilemma of either absorbing high costs, further compressing profit margins, or passing costs onto consumers, which could lead to a loss of market share [2]

皮内达认为，引发关税问题的贸易分歧不会长期悬而未决。全球贸易环境难以承受钢铁与铝成本持续高 企的压力，这两种材料也是众多制造业领域的关键原材料，塑料行业也不例外。塑料行业的压力还来自 设备进口。目前美国扩大了232条款关税覆盖范围，塑料行业进口的塑料机械与模具也被纳入征税清 单。 中化新网讯 近日，美国塑料行业贸易协会(PLASTICS)表示，受关税与贸易政策不确定性抑制制造业活 动影响，2025年美国塑料行业就业岗位预计将减少1.1%，产品出货量预计下降0.5%。 该协会首席经济学家珀西·皮内达指出："总体来看，制造业增长受阻的核心原因在于高关税带来的不确 定性，以及新关税政策与修订政策的不可预测性。关税前景不明确，正拖累包括塑料行业在内的整个制 造业供应链的市场调整节奏。" 更严峻的是，关税压力可能进一步升级。PLASTICS首席执行官马特·西霍尔姆表示，美国商务部已重启 232条款关税的品类纳入流程，未来更多含钢铁、铝成分的产品可能被涉及。西霍尔姆指出："本届政府 已将此事列为优先事项，政府还表示不希望设置任何关税豁免品类，这一态度已引发美国整个制造业的 普遍不满。" 对此，PLASTICS提出抗辩：塑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][2][3] - Spot gold first broke through $3700 per ounce but later experienced a short-term drop, ultimately closing up 0.29% at $3689.46 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver closed down 0.38% at $42.50 per ounce, reflecting the overall market sentiment influenced by monetary policy expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell, while economic data showed that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating strong consumer resilience [3] - The ongoing trade policy uncertainties, including agreements between the EU and Indonesia, proposed tariffs on auto parts by the U.S., and intensified trade negotiations between the U.S. and India, are supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [3] - Market volatility is expected to increase around the Federal Reserve's policy statement, especially if the rate cut is accompanied by hawkish guidance or cautious signals regarding future policy [3] Group 3 - Overall, economic data has not changed the expectations for interest rate cuts, and ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties suggest that gold and silver prices will likely maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short to medium term [4] - Technically, gold is expected to find support at $3600, with potential to challenge the $3800 level, while silver could target $45 if it stabilizes around the $43 mark [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on September 15, opening at $3643.96 per ounce, reaching a high of $3681.86, a low of $3626.60, and closing at $3680.50 [1] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for September recorded -1.2, falling short of market expectations by 5 points, with a previous value of 11.9. This decline is attributed to weak new orders and shipment volumes, indicating a notable softening in demand [2] - The manufacturing index has been in contraction for six consecutive months, reflecting ongoing pressures in the U.S. manufacturing sector and a reduction in industry employment due to uncertainties stemming from trade policies and immigration restrictions [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Strategist Kelly expressed concerns that if the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut is perceived as politically motivated, it could heighten risks for stocks, bonds, and the dollar. He advised investors to adopt a cautious stance and diversify their investments [3] - Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard indicated interest in the Fed Chair position and expects a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting that a cumulative cut of 75 basis points by year-end is reasonable [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced military strikes against Venezuelan targets linked to drug trafficking, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - U.S. energy officials are considering expanding strategic uranium reserves to reduce reliance on Russian supplies, which currently account for about 25% of the enriched uranium for U.S. nuclear reactors [7] Gold Market Dynamics - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 2.01 tons, bringing the total to 976.81 tons. The market anticipates a 95.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [7] - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, with a cautious approach recommended for short-term trading strategies [9][10]

Group 1 - Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook are increasing on Wall Street, with both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase issuing warnings about economic weakness [1][2] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon highlighted the impact of President Trump's trade policies on growth prospects and emphasized the need to closely monitor weak employment data [1][2] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted that recent revisions to employment data indicate a significant downward adjustment in job creation, marking the largest correction in over two decades [2] Group 2 - There is a divergence in views between Wall Street and the White House regarding interest rate cuts, with Solomon suggesting that current policy rates are not overly restrictive and indicating no urgent need for rapid rate cuts [3] - Dimon expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of potential rate cuts, suggesting that they may not have a significant impact on the economy [3]

Group 1 - The recent executive order signed by Trump allows countries that reach trade agreements with the U.S. to benefit from zero tariffs on certain exports to the U.S. [1] - The zero tariff incentive is primarily aimed at goods that the U.S. cannot produce or has insufficient domestic supply, including specific agricultural products, aircraft and parts, and non-patented pharmaceutical ingredients [1] - This approach reflects a "carrot and stick" negotiation strategy, where zero tariffs serve as an incentive while maintaining the threat of high tariffs to ensure compliance from trade partners [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with the latest PMI data at 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months [7] - The labor market shows concerning trends, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [10] - The uncertainty and rising costs from tariff policies are identified as key factors affecting manufacturing, with significant job losses reported in the sector [10][12] Group 3 - Frequent changes in trade policy have led to increased economic uncertainty, resulting in a 6.7% year-over-year decline in factory construction spending in July [12] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions are shifting, with a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to economic pressures, despite concerns about inflation [12] - Recent revisions to economic data have been substantial, highlighting the need for caution when interpreting economic indicators, as they may be subject to significant adjustments [12]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report highlights that trade policy uncertainty, exacerbated by global tensions and economic challenges, poses significant risks to trade-dependent economies and hampers global economic growth [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is deemed more damaging than tariffs, as businesses can adapt to rising costs but struggle with unpredictable policy changes [1][4] Summary by Sections Impact of US Trade Policy - The report identifies the US as a key case study, noting that its frequent trade policy adjustments, such as tariffs on China and renegotiation of NAFTA, create unpredictability for businesses and trade partners [2] - The unilateral actions taken by the US, including tariffs and sanctions, have intensified global trade policy uncertainty and provoked retaliatory measures from other countries [2] - Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of US trade policy uncertainty, which can hinder their economic and social development [2] Recommendations for Mitigating Uncertainty - The report calls for governments, businesses, and international organizations to collaborate in enhancing global trade resilience and stability [3][4] - Governments should base policy decisions on clear economic analysis and data, providing rationale and expected impacts to improve predictability for businesses [3] - Prior notification of new trade measures is recommended to allow businesses time for consultation and adjustment [3] - International organizations like UNCTAD and WTO should promote policy coordination among countries to avoid retaliatory actions and establish frameworks to address uncertainty [3] - Countries are encouraged to adhere to and strengthen rules within regional and multilateral trade agreements to minimize policy volatility [3] - Businesses should enhance supply chain flexibility by establishing backup suppliers, increasing inventory, and utilizing multiple transportation methods to quickly adapt to policy changes [3]