Core Insights - The WTO reported that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 countries increased approximately fourfold from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in WTO trade monitoring history [3][8] - Despite the rise in tariffs, G20 countries implemented a significant number of trade facilitation measures, doubling the value of such measures compared to the previous report [4][9] Group 1: Tariff Impact - From mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025, 14.3% of imported goods in G20 countries (approximately $25.99 trillion) were affected by tariffs and other measures, a significant increase from the previous $5.99 trillion [8] - The average actual tariff rate faced by U.S. consumers reached 18.0%, the highest level in over 90 years, indicating ongoing concerns about tariffs [4][12] Group 2: Trade Facilitation Measures - G20 countries introduced 184 new trade facilitation measures covering approximately $2.055 trillion in trade, nearly double the previous report's $1.07 trillion [9] - In the service trade sector, 52 new measures were introduced, with over two-thirds aimed at promoting trade [9] Group 3: Trade Growth Projections - The WTO forecasts a global goods trade growth rate of 2.4% for 2025, but this is expected to drop significantly to 0.5% in 2026 [11] - Oxford Economics predicts a slowdown in global trade growth from 4% in 2025 to 1% in 2026, highlighting the negative impact of rising tariffs [12] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty remains a critical factor affecting investment, with the U.S. experiencing over 40 modifications to tariff-related regulations within a year [13] - The fluctuation in U.S. trade policies, including recent increases in heavy truck tariffs and ongoing legal uncertainties regarding tariff legality, contribute to this uncertainty [12]

美国政府停摆即将结束，英国央行维持利率不变 海外宏观周报（2025.11.3-2025.11.9） 作者 部门执行总监 冯琳 2025 年 11 月 10 日 核心内容 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 | | | 名称 上证指数 | 2025/11/07 3998 | 一周涨跌幅 1.08% | 年初至今涨跌幅 19.27% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 深证成指 | 13404 | 0.19% | 28.70% | | | | 标普 500 | 6729 | -1.63% | 14.40% | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 46987 | -1.21% | 10.44% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23005 | -3.04% | 19.13% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 英国富时 100 | 9683 | -0.36% | 18.47% | | | 股市 | 德国 DAX | 23570 | -1.62% | 18.39% | | 部门执行总监 冯琳 | | 法国 CAC40 | 7950 | -2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dairis International (00333) reported a 25% year-on-year decline in sales for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, totaling HKD 236 million, primarily due to weak market demand and inventory control measures by U.S. brands and retailers in response to trade uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The sales in the U.S. market accounted for 74% of total sales, followed by Europe at 10% and other markets at 16% [1]. - The gross profit margin was pressured due to underutilization of capacity leading to fixed costs not being fully absorbed, along with a product mix skewed towards lower-margin products [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued business sluggishness in the short term, influenced by recent changes and instability in U.S. trade policies, which directly impact the market [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are expected to exacerbate uncertainties in the operating environment and reshape global trade dynamics [2]. Group 3: Strategic Response - In response to the challenging operating environment, Dairis will continue to strictly control costs and remain vigilant [2]. - The company is encouraged by initial successes in new business development, product innovation, and insights into consumer trends, which are helping to attract new customers [2]. - Dairis is committed to leveraging its established strategies of technological innovation, vertical integration, quality service, and a multinational production network to navigate current challenges and achieve sustainable growth [2][3].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of $4030.57 and a low of $3962.20, with a daily fluctuation of $68, closing at $4001.38 [1] - Currently, gold is trading slightly lower around $3993 [1] Group 2: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7, below the expected 49.5 and previous value of 49.1 [3][5] - Twelve manufacturing sectors reported contraction, particularly in textiles, apparel, and furniture, while six sectors, including basic metals and transportation equipment, reported growth [5] - The prices paid index for raw materials decreased by 3.9 points to 58, marking the lowest level since the beginning of the year [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's outlook for a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with a 67.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 32.7% chance of maintaining current rates [11] - Four Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, indicating a lack of consensus on future rate cuts [7][8][9] Group 4: Stock Market Trends - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.46%, S&P 500 up 0.17%, and Dow Jones down 0.48% [2] - The Asian markets experienced declines, with significant drops in Japan and South Korea, and a general bearish trend in global stock futures [12] Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump indicated the possibility of deploying U.S. ground troops or conducting airstrikes in Nigeria to address violence against Christians, which could have implications for international relations and oil markets [16][18] - Nigeria, as a major oil producer, has significant geopolitical importance, with proven oil reserves of approximately 37 billion barrels [18]

Core Viewpoint - The ISM report indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October due to declining production and weak demand [1][7]. Manufacturing Activity - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is 48.7, below the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index is at 49.4, showing a second consecutive month of decline, although the rate of decline has slowed [4]. - The production index fell by 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating that output has contracted in two of the last three months [5]. Employment and Labor Market - The employment index is at 46, down from 45.3, marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction in employment [5]. - Companies are focusing on layoffs rather than hiring to manage labor costs amid uncertainty in demand [6]. Price and Inflation Indicators - The prices paid index is at 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [5][8]. - This index has decreased nearly 12 points since the peak following the implementation of tariff policies in April [5]. Supply Chain and Inventory - The ISM supplier deliveries index has risen to a four-month high, suggesting extended delivery times [6]. - Manufacturers are experiencing the largest decline in inventory levels in a year, with low customer inventory levels indicating potential future order increases [6]. Industry Sentiment - The manufacturing sector is facing a generally pessimistic sentiment, with concerns over trade policy uncertainty impacting business confidence [7][9]. - Consumer goods manufacturers' confidence has dropped to a two-year low due to worries about domestic spending and declining sales in export markets [10]. Economic Data Reliance - Due to the government shutdown, economists and policymakers are increasingly relying on private reports like the ISM survey to assess economic and labor market conditions [11].

行情回顾： 当地时间11月3日，代表美国航空、联合航空、西南航空、达美航空、捷蓝航空和其他主要航空公司的美国航 空协会表示，自10月1日美政府"停摆"以来，由于空中交通管制人员配备问题，已有超过320万名美国航空旅客 受到航班延误或取消的影响。 国际黄金周一（11月3日）维持震荡走势，开盘价3983.40美元/盎司，最高价4030.62美元/盎司最低价3962.44美 元/盎司，收盘价4008.54美元/盎司。 消息面： 周一公布的美国10月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得52.5，高于市场预期52.2；美国10月ISM制造业PMI录得 48.7，低于市场预期49.5，前值位49.1。 机构评美国ISM制造业PMI报告：受产出下滑和需求疲软拖累，10月份美国制造业活动连续第八个月萎缩。数 据显示，美国ISM制造业指数下降0.4点至48.7，生产指数下滑2.8点至48.2，为过去三个月中第二次出现产出收 缩，这也拖累了就业，ISM就业指标连续第九个月收缩。与此同时，通胀压力持续缓解。原材料采购价格指数 下跌3.9点至58，为年初以来最低水平。10月份有12个制造业行业出现收缩，其中纺织、服装和家具行业表现 最弱。包 ...

当地时间10月30日，美国政治再次迎来重大变动。参议院以51票赞成、47票反对的微弱优势通过了一项重要决议，直指总统特朗普推行的全球关税政策。这 一决议的通过，不仅是对白宫贸易战略的一次重大反击，也揭示了共和党内部在贸易问题上的深刻分歧。 此次参议院通过的联合决议，核心内容是要求终止特朗普为了实施全球关税而宣布的"国家紧急状态"。这意味着，特朗普通过"国家安全"名义实施贸易保护 政策的做法，首次在立法层面遭到明确的挑战。更为引人关注的是，参议院在这之前不久，已经连续通过了两项决议，专门针对特朗普政府对加拿大和巴西 等传统盟友加征的关税。接连发力、节奏紧凑，这一系列举措表明，部分共和党人和民主党人已经联手，决心阻止贸易战进一步升级。 这次投票的结果——51票对47票，反映了华盛顿复杂的政治局势。尽管共和党控制着参议院，但仍有一些共和党议员倒戈，和民主党站在一起。他们的"背 叛"并非一时冲动，而是经过深思熟虑的政治决策。随着中期选举临近，来自农业州和制造业州的议员们纷纷发现，关税政策的反噬已经影响到他们的选 民：大豆销路不好、工厂成本上涨，民众的怨声四起。在这种情况下，他们选择站在政治生存一边，而不是继续支持总统 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in global gold demand, particularly driven by investment, following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [3]. - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total gold demand [3]. - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with holdings increasing by 222 tons in Q3, translating to $26 billion in investment [3]. Group 2: China Market Performance - In contrast, China's gold demand showed a decline, with retail investment and consumption dropping to 152 tons in Q3, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [6]. - Gold ETF demand in China turned negative, with outflows of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million) in Q3, ending a three-quarter inflow trend [6]. - Despite the challenges, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs in China grew by 11% to 168.8 billion RMB (about $23.7 billion) due to rising gold prices [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - Cumulatively, central banks bought 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [7].

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report indicates that while global trade showed strong performance in the first half of the year, the outlook for the second half and into 2026 is pessimistic due to rising tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Global Trade Performance - Global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, but the growth rate is expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainty [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports surged beyond expectations as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of future tariff increases, leading to a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade volume [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other goods and becoming a key driver of trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and includes contributions from both developed and emerging markets, with East Asia remaining a major supply chain hub [3] Group 3: Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown compared to previous years, with expectations of continued deceleration in 2025 and 2026 due to economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite the current slowdown, there is optimism for long-term growth in service trade, particularly driven by the development of the digital economy and increasing demand from emerging markets [4] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty impacts global trade by affecting business investment, consumer spending, supply chain stability, and trade costs, leading to a more cautious approach from companies [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Trade Development - To address the challenges facing global trade, measures such as enhancing trade policy transparency, improving policy coordination, and supporting developing countries' trade competitiveness are recommended [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also suggested to facilitate trade and ensure sustainable growth [5]

Core Insights - The report from the Port of Antwerp-Bruges indicates a total cargo throughput of 202.6 million tons for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1] Group 1: Container Transport - Container transport volumes have remained stable overall in the first nine months of the year, but a downward trend has been observed since August [1] - The decline in container throughput is primarily attributed to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2: Export Impact - The fluctuating U.S. import tariffs and the uncertainty in policy direction have had a significant impact on European ports [1] - In the third quarter of 2025, steel exports from the port dropped by over one-third compared to the previous quarter due to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs [1] Group 3: Bulk Cargo and Fertilizer - Dry bulk cargo transport saw a year-on-year decline of 12.8%, with the ongoing weakness in fertilizer imports being a major contributing factor [1] - The decline in exports and the challenges faced by the European chemical industry highlight that geopolitical and economic fluctuations are becoming key factors affecting the development of European ports [1]