Core Viewpoint - The report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee warns that President Trump's trade policies could lead to a reduction of over 13% in U.S. manufacturing investment annually, totaling more than $490 billion in losses by 2029 [3][6]. Group 1: Impact on Employment and Investment - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest point in nearly a decade [3][6]. - Manufacturing construction spending has been on a downward trend since Trump's administration began, as companies are hesitant to make significant investments amid economic uncertainty [3][6]. - A survey indicated that manufacturing firms expected capital expenditures to grow by 5.2% in December 2024, but by May 2025, they anticipated a decline of 1.3% [6][9]. Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The report highlights that nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions made by the Trump administration since April have significantly increased economic uncertainty [6][7]. - Manufacturers view trade uncertainty as a primary concern, followed by rising input costs, which has led to a decrease in optimism regarding future investments [6][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is compared to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, suggesting that U.S. manufacturers face broader and potentially more severe consequences [9]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Delayed investments not only hinder innovation but may also lead to job losses in factories, weakened supply chains, and reduced competitiveness against other countries [7][9]. - Even if all trade policies were resolved immediately, the recent turmoil could still negatively impact long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [9]. - The Joint Economic Committee estimates that the uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could result in an average annual investment reduction of 1%, leading to a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [9].

Group 1 - The report warns that President Trump's trade policies may lead to a reduction in U.S. manufacturing investment by over 13% annually, totaling more than $490 billion by 2029 [1] - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest in nearly a decade [1][3] - Manufacturing construction spending has been on a downward trend since Trump's presidency, as companies are reluctant to make significant investments amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) highlights that nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions made by the Trump administration since April have escalated economic uncertainty [3] - Between May and July, the U.S. manufacturing job count decreased by a total of 37,000, with May's hiring numbers reaching the lowest level since 2016 [3] - Manufacturers' investment sentiment has significantly declined, with expectations for capital spending growth in 2025 revised down to a decrease of 1.3% [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that manufacturing is particularly vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty, as decisions to expand production often involve large, long-term, and irreversible investments [4] - Delayed investments not only slow innovation but may also lead to job losses in factories, weakened supply chains, and diminished competitiveness against other countries [5] Group 4 - The report compares the uncertainty from Trump's trade policies to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, noting that U.S. manufacturers face broader policy and economic consequences [6] - Even if all trade policies were finalized immediately, the recent turmoil could still harm long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [6] - The JEC estimates that uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could lead to an average annual investment reduction of 1%, resulting in a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [6]

Core Insights - Hamburg port's maritime cargo throughput is expected to grow by 3.6% in the first half of 2025, with container throughput increasing by 9.3, indicating a stable growth trend [1] - The port experienced a 19.3% decline in container throughput to the US due to frequent changes in US tariff policies, highlighting the negative impact of US trade policy uncertainty on global shipping and transatlantic trade [1] - In contrast, logistics cooperation with Asia and the Baltic region has increased, with container throughput growth primarily driven by East Asia and Baltic routes [1] - The data reflects the impact of US tariff policies on transatlantic trade and the warming trade relations between Europe and East Asia, with expectations that transatlantic trade will continue to be affected in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Samsonite's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 is $141 million, roughly in line with the expected $145 million [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, driven by cautious purchasing decisions from wholesale clients [1] - Wholesale channel revenue fell by 8.7% year-on-year, while direct sales only saw a decline of 1.3% [1] Management Outlook - Management anticipates some improvement in sales patterns for Q3, although ongoing trade policy uncertainties and inflationary pressures are affecting consumer sentiment and demand [1] - The company is taking measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including increasing inventory before tariff hikes and raising prices [1] Forecast Adjustments - UBS has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Samsonite for the years 2023 to 2027 by 2% to 4%, along with a 2% increase in net sales forecasts [1] - It is expected that the year-on-year revenue decline will narrow in the second half of the year, with an overall anticipated revenue drop of 5% for the year [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has increased its target price for Samsonite to HKD 17.2, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and with the regulatory's expectation management, the RMB's short - term buffer against external shocks has increased [36][39]. Summary by Related Catalogs Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the RMB option has continued to decline, and the market's expectation of the future volatility of the US dollar against the RMB has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's US dollar against the RMB futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread in different time periods [7][8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there are fluctuations in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [11]. Macroeconomic Analysis US Economy - There is a differentiation in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. As of August 6, the TGA account was 464.3 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 9.196 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut [19]. - The economic expectation has been revised upwards. In July, non - farm data was significantly revised downwards, inflation rebounded, fiscal spending increased significantly, and the economic situation showed marginal support [21]. - Fiscal spending has rebounded, especially in defense, medical insurance, and healthcare [22]. - The employment market in July was significantly revised downwards. The employment performance of the service sector was better than that of the commodity and government sectors, and the hourly wage in July increased by 0.3% month - on - month [28]. Chinese Economy - There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment [29]. - Exports in July exceeded expectations. Financial data was better than expected, with changes in exports to different regions and products [31]. European Economy - The downside risks have been cleared. Economic data is oscillating at the bottom, with the manufacturing and service PMIs in Europe rebounding in July. Inflation is stable, with the eurozone's CPI in July increasing by 2% year - on - year and the core CPI increasing by 2.3% year - on - year [34]. Scenario Deduction - There are different time - based scenarios including the Fed's policy window period, the destocking cycle, tariff impacts, and domestic policy windows [40][41]. Risk Assessment - The range of basis fluctuations: From the historical data from January 2022 to the present, the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [45].

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company (DE.US) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 7.5% to $474.83, following the release of its third-quarter financial results which showed continued revenue and profit declines [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter revenue decreased by 8.6% year-over-year to $12.02 billion, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline, although it surpassed analysts' average expectation of $11.86 billion [1] - Net profit fell by 25.7% year-over-year to $1.29 billion, translating to earnings per share of $4.75, which exceeded the expected $4.58 [1] Market Conditions - CEO John May indicated that customer sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and economic conditions [1] - The company is actively addressing the issue of a large number of used equipment in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. consumer spending is weak due to trade policy uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions, significantly impacting the performance of North American footwear and apparel brands [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Under Armour reported a 4% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, totaling $1.1 billion, with a projected 6% decline for Q2 [1]. - Crocs, known for its "Croc" shoes, reported a net loss of approximately $428 million for Q2, with North American revenue down 6.5% year-over-year, and expects a further decline of 9% to 11% in Q3 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs on imports from countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have raised costs for major brands such as Nike, which estimates an additional $1 billion in costs due to tariffs [2]. - Gap anticipates an increase in costs between $250 million to $300 million due to the tariffs [2]. - Retailers may need to raise prices by 10% to 12% to offset these costs, which will ultimately affect U.S. consumers, particularly those with lower incomes [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - U.S. consumers are cautious with non-essential spending, leading to decreased foot traffic in stores and a preference for cheaper alternatives [3]. - The footwear and apparel industry faces a dilemma: raise prices to maintain profit margins or absorb costs, which would severely impact profitability [3]. - A letter signed by 76 footwear brands, including Nike and Adidas, was sent to the White House, indicating that tariffs pose a "survival threat" to the industry [3].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a profit attributable to equity holders of approximately RMB 1 million to 3 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to approximately RMB 15.03 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The decrease in profit is primarily due to uncertainties in trade policies and weak domestic consumption, leading to intensified competition in the paper and paper products packaging industry [1] - Although the sales volume of the paper segment increased by over 10% year-on-year, the sales prices of both raw paper products and paper packaging products fell significantly by over 8% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The price of major raw material, waste paper, increased by approximately 4% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in overall gross margin by about 5% compared to the previous year [1] - The company has implemented management optimization and strict cost control measures, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in period expenses of approximately 2% [1] - The net profit margin only decreased by approximately 1.3% year-on-year, aided by revenue from the sale of old renovation properties in the paper division [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhengye International (03363.HK) expects a significant decline in profit attributable to equity holders, projecting earnings between RMB 1.0 million and RMB 3.0 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to RMB 15.03 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The decrease in profit is primarily attributed to uncertainties in trade policies and weak domestic consumption, leading to intensified competition in the paper and paper products packaging industry [1] - Although the sales volume in the paper segment increased by over 10% year-on-year, the sales prices for both raw paper products and paper packaging products fell by more than 8% compared to the previous year [1] - The price of major raw material, waste paper, rose by approximately 4% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in overall gross margin by about 5% compared to the same period last year [1] Cost Management - In response to operational challenges, the company has enhanced management optimization and strictly controlled various cost expenditures, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in period expenses of approximately 2% [1] - The paper division's sales from the renovation of old materials generated additional income, leading to a smaller decline in net profit margin of only about 1.3% compared to the previous year [1]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 特朗普以购买俄罗斯原油为由对印度加征 25%关税并称将对半导体芯片征收 100%关税，多位美联储官员担忧就业市场状况并支持美联储重启降息进程，贸易 政策不确定性引发的避险需求以及美联储降息预期支持贵金属偏强运行，伦敦黄 金逼近 3400 美元/盎司关口。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨 趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡整 ...