Group 1: Investment Strategy - The combination of high free cash flow yield and dividends is a powerful investment strategy that has been proven over 30 years of data across multiple market cycles [2][26][27] - From 1990 to 2016, stocks in the top quintile for both dividend yield and free cash flow yield generated an annual excess return of 6.03% compared to the market [3][16] - High dividend yield stocks without free cash flow produced only a 0.10% excess return, while high free cash flow yield stocks without dividends achieved 3.57% [4][16] Group 2: Importance of Free Cash Flow - Free cash flow is a more reliable indicator than earnings, as it reflects actual cash available for dividends [8][10] - Companies that generate strong free cash flow but do not pay dividends often waste cash on unproductive projects, which can destroy shareholder value [9][10] - High free cash flow dividend payers have shown superior characteristics, including lower leverage and higher returns on equity [10][11] Group 3: Payout Ratios and Dividend Growth - The optimal payout ratio for dividends is around 40 to 50% of free cash flow, allowing for sustainable dividend growth [12][13] - Companies with a 40 to 50% payout ratio can maintain dividends during economic downturns, while those with higher ratios are at risk of cuts [15][21] - The Pacer Cash Cows Index, focusing on high free cash flow yield companies, has delivered annual dividend growth of 9.2% while maintaining a sustainable payout ratio [13][18] Group 4: Performance During Market Cycles - High free cash flow dividend payers recover faster from market downturns, averaging 15 months compared to 28 months for non-payers [11][22] - The S&P study from 1990 to 2017 found that the top quintile combining dividend yield and free cash flow yield outperformed 75% of the time [16] - During bear markets, this strategy provided meaningful downside protection, outperforming 50% of the time [16] Group 5: Company Examples - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has a dividend yield of 3.4% and a payout ratio of 24%, demonstrating stability and strong free cash flow generation [28][31] - HNI Corp. has a dividend yield of approximately 3.3% with a payout ratio of 43 to 45%, showing resilience despite market uncertainties [33][37] - OneSpan operates in digital security with a dividend yield of 4.03% and a low payout ratio under 8%, indicating strong cash flow and growth potential [39][41] - Luxfer Holdings has a dividend yield of approximately 4.3% and a payout ratio of 43%, focusing on high-performance materials with steady demand [45][48]

Core Insights - Bunge Global SA reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.27 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23, but reflecting a 1% year-over-year decline [1][10] - The company completed the acquisition of Viterra, enhancing its global network and agricultural capabilities, with net sales reaching $22.16 billion, a 71.6% increase from the previous year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $26.55 billion [2][10] Financial Performance - The cost of sales increased to $21 billion, up 74% year-over-year, while gross profit rose 38% to $1.06 billion [3] - Selling and administrative expenses were $678 million, a 55% increase year-over-year, leading to an operating profit of $403 million, down 1% from the prior year [3] - Adjusted total operating profit surged 54% year-over-year to $757 million, with total adjusted operating margin contracting by 40 basis points to 3.4% [4] Segment Performance - Soybean Processing and Refining: Sales increased 38% to $10.86 billion, with processed soybeans up 30% to 12,139 thousand metric tons, and adjusted operating profit rising 67% to $478 million [5] - Softseed Processing and Refining: Sales surged 130% to $3.66 billion, with processed volumes increasing to 3,124 thousand metric tons, and adjusted operating profit up 107% to $275 million [6] - Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining: Sales rose 13.4% to $1.2 billion, but adjusted operating profit fell 19% to $51 million due to mixed results across regions [7] - Grain Merchandising and Milling: Sales increased 168% to $6.43 billion, with volumes up 168.6% to 24,080 thousand metric tons, and adjusted operating profit rising 56% to $120 million [8][9] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Cash used in operating activities was $503 million in the first nine months of 2025, compared to an inflow of $847 million in the same period last year [11] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1.3 billion from $3.3 billion at the end of 2024, while long-term debt rose to $9.8 billion from $4.7 billion [12] Outlook - Bunge Global maintains its 2025 adjusted EPS outlook in the range of $7.30-$7.60 [13] Stock Performance - Bunge Global's shares have gained 20.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry, which has seen an 11% decline [14]

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 92 cents, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 85 cents [1] - Quarterly sales reached $20.372 billion, falling short of the expected $20.650 billion [1] - The company lowered its 2025 adjusted EPS outlook from $4.00 to a range of $3.25 to $3.50, which is below the $3.84 analyst consensus [4] Financial Performance - Total segment operating profit was $845 million, a decrease of 19% year over year, excluding specified items totaling $220 million [2] - AS&O segment operating profit was $379 million, down 21% compared to the prior year [3] - Carbohydrate Solutions segment's operating profit was $336 million, down 26% [3] - Nutrition segment operating profit was $130 million, reflecting a 24% increase from the prior year [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $954 million [3] - The company ended the quarter with cash and equivalents of $1.235 billion [3] Management Commentary - CEO Juan Luciano highlighted advancements in portfolio optimization, cost savings through targeted streamlining, efficient plant operations, and robust cash flow generation [2] - Looking ahead, the company anticipates that biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution will provide demand signals for the industry [4] Stock Performance - ADM shares traded 1% higher at $60.69 following the earnings report [4]

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has lowered its full-year 2025 profit outlook due to weaker crush margins and delays in U.S. biofuel policy, resulting in a nearly 11% drop in its shares during pre-market trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ADM now anticipates adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for 2025, a decrease from the previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 per share [4]. - The company reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ending September 30, surpassing the average estimate of 85 cents [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, resulting in a 21% decline in operating profit to $379 million in the Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [2]. - Major agriculture processors, including ADM, are contending with volatile commodity cycles, soft crop prices, and uncertain energy policies [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company anticipates that policy clarity and improving global trade flows will support growth in 2026, with expectations for biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for the industry [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential attractiveness of dividend-paying stocks as the Federal Reserve moves toward rate cuts, highlighting the importance of selecting high-quality businesses that generate income [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The Franklin Templeton Equity Income Fund (FISEX) targets high-quality businesses that consistently invest, innovate, and expand, aiming for stronger and more resilient business models [2]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that dividends can stabilize portfolios during uncertain times, suggesting that reliable dividends become more appealing in a slower growth environment with falling interest rates [3]. Stock Selection Methodology - The article outlines a methodology for selecting dividend stocks, focusing on those with a forward P/E ratio under 16 and a reliable history of consistent dividend payments [6]. Featured Companies - **Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM)**: - Forward P/E as of October 2 is 15.82. The company utilizes AI and machine learning to enhance operational efficiency and has increased its dividend for 42 consecutive years, offering a quarterly dividend of $0.99 per share with a yield of 3.51% [8][12]. - **JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)**: - Forward P/E as of October 2 is 15.62. The bank announced a 7.1% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.50 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.95% [13]. The company has a strong presence in both consumer and investment banking and is actively investing in fintech [14]. - **Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:ADM)**: - Forward P/E as of October 2 is 13.12. The company is a leading provider of agricultural processing and has paid dividends for 93 consecutive years, currently offering a quarterly dividend of $0.51 per share with a yield of 3.44% [15][16]. Despite recent profit pressures, its size and vertical integration provide a competitive advantage in a growing market for food and biofuels [17][18].

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 - Adjusted Earnings Per Share decreased by 10% compared to the prior year quarter, reaching $0.93[6] - Total Segment Operating Profit decreased by 10% compared to the prior year quarter, amounting to $830 million[6] - Adjusted Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was 6.9%[6, 46] Financial Performance - 1H 2025 - Adjusted Earnings Per Share decreased by 35% compared to the prior year period, reaching $1.63[6] - Total Segment Operating Profit decreased by 26% compared to the prior year period, amounting to $1.2 billion[6] - Cash Flows From Operations Before Working Capital decreased by $459 million due to lower total segment operating profit, reaching $1.7 billion[7, 27] Segment Performance - Ag Services & Oilseeds segment operating profit declined 17% in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024[14] - Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit decreased 6% in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024[17] - Nutrition segment achieved approximately 5% increase in both revenue and operating profits in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024[24] Cash Flow and Capital Allocation - Invested $596 million in capital expenditures in 1H 2025[28] - Returned $495 million of excess cash to shareholders through dividends during 1H 2025[28] Full Year 2025 Outlook - The company expects Adjusted Earnings Per Share of approximately $4.00[31]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11][15] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy, affecting performance across all regions [15] - Milling results improved in North America but were offset by lower results in South America [15] - Corporate expenses decreased primarily due to performance-based compensation [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year, driven by a record bean crop, while margins in Argentina also showed improvement due to strong farmer selling [31] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [33] - Q2 margins in China improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5][10] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [9][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging synergies from the merger to enhance operational efficiencies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a strong path ahead with the integration of Viterra and the potential for operational synergies [8][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes its diversified asset base positions it well to capture value [24][25] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for improved processing results, particularly in Q4, driven by better crush margins [22][59] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [19] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position with $8.7 billion in committed credit facilities [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on soy crush performance and outlook? - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the SREs and their impact? - Management expects a decision on SREs in August or September, with a belief that the administration understands their potential impact on RVO [35][36] Question: Can you clarify the combined company guidance including Viterra? - Management emphasized the strategic rationale for the merger and expressed confidence in the combined company's ability to navigate market challenges [42][45] Question: What is the outlook for the oil segment? - The oil segment was impacted by lower energy demand and uncertainty around biofuels policy, but management expects improvement in the second half [61] Question: How are the organic investments progressing? - Key projects like Morristown and Destrehan are on track, with commissioning expected in Q4 and early next year [64][66] Question: What is the outlook for the milling side in the U.S.? - Demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by good economics in the animal protein segment, with North America enhancing export capabilities [70][71] Question: How does the company view the interplay between SBO and other seed oils? - Management sees opportunities in offering a full suite of seed oils to customers, adapting to market demands [86] Question: What are the implications of recent global trade developments? - Management noted that China's actions reflect a focus on food security and a shift towards new import options, indicating a dynamic global market [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy [12] - In merchandising, improved performance in global grains and oils was offset by lower results in financial services and ocean freight businesses [15] - Milling results were higher in North America but lower in South America [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year due to a record bean crop, while Argentina also saw better margins driven by strong farmer selling [32] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [34] - In China, Q2 margins improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [6][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging a global approach to risk management [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential commercial synergies from the Viterra integration, highlighting the importance of a balanced global footprint [25][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes it is well-positioned to serve customers across the value chain [25][26] - The outlook for the second half of the year includes expectations for improved processing margins, particularly in Q4, despite challenges in merchandising and specialty oils [58] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [17] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Soy crush performance and fundamentals outlook - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [31][32] Question: Concerns about Viterra earnings base - Management acknowledged challenges during the transition but expressed confidence in the combined company's potential and the strategic rationale behind the merger [42][46] Question: Implications of U.S. crush margins on global markets - Management indicated that the combined company is well-positioned to adapt to changing market conditions and emphasized the importance of a balanced global footprint [52][53] Question: Shareholder returns and buyback plans - The company has $800 million remaining under its $2 billion buyback commitment and plans to execute on this soon [103][105] Question: Outlook for refining margins and competition - Management expects refining margins to moderate over time but believes domestic soybean oil will remain competitive due to supportive policies [76][82]