Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares fell 10.57% to $90.84 following an earnings miss and a year-over-year revenue decline in Q2 2025 [1][2] - Although revenues of $21.2 billion exceeded expectations, they still represented a 2.7% decline year over year [3][10] - The company did not provide full-year guidance due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 earnings per share were $1.55, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and declining 13.4% year over year [3][10] - Average daily volumes declined 3.8% year over year in the first half of 2025, attributed to weak consumer sentiment and tariff impacts [11] Market Position - Year-to-date, UPS shares have dropped 28%, underperforming the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 16% decline [5][8] - Over the past year, UPS shares have decreased over 30%, while its industry and FedEx have seen declines of 21% and 22%, respectively [8] Challenges Facing UPS - The company is experiencing a demand slowdown due to declining shipping demand and lackluster online sales [11][12] - Concerns about dividend sustainability arise from an elevated payout ratio of 84%, with free cash flow barely covering dividend payments [13][15] Strategic Moves - UPS plans to reduce its workforce by 20,000, approximately 4% of its global workforce, and shut down 73 facilities to streamline operations [19][21] - The company has also agreed to cut Amazon volumes by more than 50% by June 2026, as Amazon was not considered its most profitable customer [21] Valuation - UPS is currently trading at a forward P/E of 11.99, lower than the industry average of 13.2 and FedEx [17] Investment Outlook - Despite attractive valuation and expansion efforts, near-term risks such as tariff uncertainties and declining earnings estimates suggest that buying UPS stock may be premature [19][22]

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing July 29, 2025 Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - **Industry**: Air Cargo and Logistics Key Points and Arguments Air Market Dynamics - The air market update focuses on the Americas, discussing capacity, demand, and geopolitical influences affecting air cargo [6][7] - Global air capacity grew by 4% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, with a notable 44% increase on the Transpacific route [8][9] - Freighter capacity specifically saw a decline of 3% in both directions between Asia and the US, while freighter deployment to Europe increased by 8% [11][12] - The ecommerce sector is experiencing a shift, with a significant reduction in ecommerce volumes flying into the US due to the end of de minimis exemptions [29][30] Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers are reshaping air cargo routes, with a notable shift from US-bound cargo to Europe and Southeast Asia [36][38] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff changes are creating uncertainty, impacting supply chains and air freight demand [47][61] - The Chinese economy is facing multiple headwinds, affecting its trade relationships and demand for air cargo services [51][52] Capacity and Demand Trends - The demand for air freight has been healthy, with a 6.6% growth in global air demand in Q1 2025, but is expected to level off to around 3-4% for the rest of the year [21][24] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is a critical indicator, with lower inventory levels indicating higher demand for air freight [23] - Vietnam has emerged as a significant exporter to the US, with a 55% growth in the first five months of 2025 compared to 2024, driven by the tech sector [44][45] Future Outlook - The expectation for new aircraft deliveries has been pushed back to 2027-2028, leading to an aging fleet and increased maintenance needs [19][20] - The air cargo market is expected to continue adjusting to shifting trade patterns, with potential increases in rates for US outbound cargo if demand rises without corresponding capacity [84][85] - The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain volatile, impacting global supply chains and air freight dynamics [75][76] Other Important Insights - The webinar highlighted the importance of adapting to changing trade policies and the need for companies to reassess their supply chain strategies in light of geopolitical tensions [58][60] - The discussion emphasized the role of ecommerce in driving air cargo demand and the challenges faced by companies in navigating regulatory changes [29][30][31] - The potential for increased investment in infrastructure, particularly in Vietnam, to support growing demand was noted as a positive development [45][46]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 per share, and down from $1.79 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.64% [1] - UPS posted revenues of $21.22 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.77%, but down from $21.82 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, UPS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UPS shares have lost about 19.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.60 on $21 billion in revenues, and $7.05 on $87.34 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which UPS belongs, is currently in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that UPS's stock may underperform in the near future based on current estimates [5][6]

United Parcel Service (UPS) closed the most recent trading day at $101.14, moving +2.26% from the previous trading session. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 0.06% for the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.41%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.39%. The package delivery service's stock has dropped by 1.49% in the past month, falling short of the Transportation sector's gain of 4.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88%.Market participants will be close ...

Key Takeaways UPS is expected to report Q2 EPS of $1.56 and revenues of $20.85 B, both down year over year. Labor cuts, Amazon volume reduction, and facility closures aim to offset inflation and cost pressures. Fuel cost relief may support margins, but weak demand and tariff risks weigh heavily on UPS' outlook.United Parcel Service (UPS)  is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, July 29, 2025.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the June-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.56 per share, ...

BARCELONA, Spain, July 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), the leading digital booking and payment platform for the international freight industry, today announced that SriLankan Cargo, the air freight arm of SriLankan Airlines, has partnered with WebCargo for online air cargo booking and payments. This partnership, which is planned to go live later this quarter, significantly strengthens Freightos' footprint in South Asia and unlocks digital access to Colombo—a growing transshipment hub link ...

Core Insights - FedEx (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS) are leading global package delivery companies, each offering a variety of shipping services and logistics solutions [1][2] - The analysis aims to determine which company currently holds a competitive edge and represents a smarter investment opportunity [2] FedEx (FDX) Overview - FDX is focusing on cost-cutting measures due to declining package volumes, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, tariffs, and high inflation [3][4] - The company has shelved its revenue and earnings forecast for fiscal 2026, following three consecutive quarters of lowered outlooks for fiscal 2025 [4] - FDX's DRIVE initiatives have resulted in savings of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025 and $1.8 billion in fiscal 2024, with an expectation of $1 billion in transformation-related savings for fiscal 2026 [5] - In June 2025, FDX increased its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share, and repurchased $3 billion worth of shares in fiscal 2025, returning a total of $4.3 billion to shareholders [6] - FDX's liquidity position is strong, with a current ratio of 1.19 at the end of fiscal 2025, indicating sufficient assets to cover short-term obligations [7] United Parcel Service (UPS) Overview - UPS is experiencing a decline in package volumes due to economic uncertainty and high labor costs, prompting the company to implement cost-cutting measures [8][9] - UPS plans to reduce its workforce by 20,000, approximately 4% of its global workforce, and shut down 73 facilities to streamline operations [10] - The company has agreed to reduce its business with Amazon by over 50% by June 2026, as Amazon was not its most profitable customer [12] - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, but concerns about the sustainability of this dividend arise due to an elevated payout ratio of 84% [13] - UPS's long-term debt burden was $19.5 billion at the end of Q1 2025, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 55.4%, higher than the industry average [14] Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, UPS shares have declined by 18.8%, while FDX shares have decreased by 15.2%, indicating better performance for FDX [16] - In terms of valuation, UPS has a forward P/E ratio of 13.66, compared to FDX's 12.76, suggesting that UPS is more expensive relative to its earnings [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 4.2% decline in UPS's 2025 sales and a 9.2% drop in earnings, while FDX is expected to see a 1.6% increase in revenues and a 1.3% growth in earnings for fiscal 2026 [23][24] - FDX is projected to have a higher earnings growth rate of 10.4% over the next five years compared to UPS's 7.4% [26] - Overall, FDX appears to be a more attractive investment option than UPS based on valuation, price performance, and financial leverage [26]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is currently viewed as relatively overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price to earnings (P/E) of 13.15X, which exceeds the industry average of 12.72X and is higher than rival FedEx Corporation (FDX) [1][10]. Financial Performance - UPS has maintained or increased its dividend each year since going public in 1999, currently offering a dividend yield of 6.6%, surpassing the industry average of 4.8% [5][6]. - The company has increased its dividend five times in the past five years, indicating strong year-over-year dividend growth potential [6]. - UPS's board approved a $5 billion share repurchase program in 2023, with $500 million worth of shares bought in 2024 and $1 billion in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. - UPS generated $6.3 billion in free cash flow in 2024, with $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025 [8]. Market Conditions - UPS is facing revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation, which negatively impact consumer sentiment and growth expectations [12]. - The decline in online sales in the U.S. and soft global manufacturing activity are contributing to reduced package shipment volumes [13]. - Labor costs are high due to agreements with the Teamsters union, which limits bottom-line growth [13]. - UPS anticipates a second-quarter adjusted operating margin of 9.3% and revenues of $21 billion, with a projected 9% decline in average daily volume for the U.S. Domestic segment [14]. Stock Performance - Year-to-date, UPS shares have underperformed, declining 26.8%, compared to a 24% drop in the industry and a 3.9% decline in rival GXO Logistics [15][18]. - Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates for UPS's second and third quarters of 2025 have decreased, indicating a negative trend in earnings expectations [19][20].

Core Insights - FedEx reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, beating both earnings and revenue estimates, but provided a dismal outlook, leading to a more than 5% drop in shares after market close [1][3] Financial Performance - Earnings per share for FedEx were $6.07, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.93 and improving from $5.41 a year ago [3] - Revenues increased by 0.5% year over year to $22.2 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.7 billion [3] Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, FedEx expects revenues to be flat or increase by up to 2%, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $3.40 and $4.00 [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a growth of 0.21%, while the estimate for earnings per share is $4.05 [4] - FedEx did not provide earnings and revenue forecasts for fiscal 2026 due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly with China [5] Cost Management - FedEx achieved its $4 billion cost-cutting goal and aims to trim an additional $1 billion in the upcoming fiscal year [5] ETF Impact - The sluggish trading is expected to affect ETFs with high allocations to FedEx, including ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF, iShares U.S. Transportation ETF, First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF, and Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF [2] ETF Details - ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF holds 40 stocks, with FedEx accounting for 4.6% of assets, and has an asset base of $0.9 million [6][7] - iShares U.S. Transportation ETF includes 44 securities, with FedEx making up 4.5% of assets and has $657.1 million in AUM [8][9] - First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF tracks 38 transportation securities, with FedEx accounting for 3.6% of the basket and has an asset base of $28.4 million [10][11] - Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF tracks 109 stocks, with FedEx representing 3.1% of the holdings and has accumulated $1.6 million in assets [12][13]

Company Overview - GXO Logistics (GXO) shares increased by 12.1% to close at $47.97, with notable trading volume compared to typical sessions, and a 5.8% gain over the past four weeks [1] - The company appointed Patrick Kelleher as the new CEO, who has 33 years of global supply chain experience, previously working with DHL Supply Chain [2] Financial Performance - GXO is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.1%, while revenues are projected to be $3.08 billion, an increase of 8.1% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for GXO has been revised slightly higher in the last 30 days, indicating a potential for price appreciation [4] Industry Context - GXO operates within the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, where FedEx (FDX) also operates, closing 1.2% higher at $226.04, with a 2.1% return over the past month [4] - FedEx's consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 1.3% to $5.94, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, and currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5]