在传统汽车消费链条中，经销商是连接消费者和汽车厂商的关键枢纽，而如今关键枢纽的经营危机，也 不断激化着消费者、经销商、汽车品牌三者之间的矛盾，信任危机也一触即发。 转型阵痛期的处理方式，也正决定着中国汽车产业高质量发展的成色。 近日，一位奔驰车主告诉笔者，收到了标注为"梅赛德斯-奔驰"发送的短信。该短信称，因为业务调 整，宝利德集团旗下绍兴之星汽车有限公司的梅赛德斯-奔驰授权将于2025年6月27日终止。车主原厂保 修保养套餐可到任何一家梅赛德斯-奔驰授权店继续使用，而车主购买的仅限宝利德集团兑付使用的售 后产品，只能联系该集团进行后续协商。 而宝利德集团的400热线无法接通。与此同时，宝利德集团分布在多地的汽车4S店也陆续闭店。今年以 来，该公司被执行总金额超4000万元，法定代表人余海军三次被限消。这导致了众多消费者保养、延保 等权益受损，叫苦不迭。 近年来，随着车市竞争的加剧，汽车经销商也普遍面临库存高企、市场竞争失序、企业资金链断裂风险 加剧等严峻挑战。经销商闭店、倒闭、跑路等现象频发，比如去年10月下旬，G.A.集团旗下宝马4S店也 同样密集出现了闭店停业、经营异常的情况。 中国汽车流通协会发布的《 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive dealership industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive dealership industry is facing significant challenges, including liquidity issues and high operational costs, particularly due to declining quality of sales leads and high customer acquisition costs [30]. - Approximately 84.4% of automotive dealers are experiencing varying degrees of price inversion, with 60.4% facing price inversions exceeding 15% [7][8]. - The average number of employees per dealership is projected to decrease from 64 in 2023 to 58 by the end of 2024, indicating a contraction in the workforce [6]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Survival Status of Automotive Dealers - The average number of employees in 4S stores is declining, with a notable reduction in management personnel and an increase in the after-sales department's share [6]. - The report highlights that 85% of automotive dealers are facing price inversion issues, which significantly impacts their profitability [7][8]. Part 2: Development Opportunities - The report indicates that leading dealers are accelerating their layout in the new energy vehicle sector, suggesting a shift towards more sustainable automotive solutions [38]. - There is a trend towards integration and optimization among manufacturers, with several brands merging their marketing and operational strategies to enhance efficiency [37]. - The report outlines several directions for transformation, including extending after-sales services, engaging in circular remanufacturing, and exploring overseas markets [44].

Investment Rating - Zhongsheng Group Holdings (0881.HK): Overweight (OW) with a price target of HK$15.00, down from HK$17.00, implying a 32% upside [10][38] - Meidong Auto Holdings (1268.HK): Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of HK$2.20, up from HK$2.10, implying a 12% upside [10][38] - Yongda Automobiles Services (3669.HK): Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of HK$2.40, down from HK$2.50, implying a -2% downside [10][38] Core Insights - The new car margin for luxury internal combustion engine (ICE) brands is expected to remain negative in 2025, with dealer margins hitting historical lows in 2024 due to increased discounts [2][12] - Zhongsheng's after-sales revenue grew by 9% year-on-year in 2024, outperforming Yongda, which saw stagnant growth [3][19] - The opening of Huawei and Xiaomi stores is anticipated to contribute significantly to earnings growth in 2025, with Zhongsheng expected to see a 9% increase and Yongda a 70% increase in incremental earnings [4][25] Summary by Sections New Car Margin - The new car margin for dealers reached a historical low in 2024, with Zhongsheng's sales margin falling to -2.6% and aggregate new car margin dropping from 10.6% in 2021 to 2.4% in 2024 [2][12] - The preference for Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) over global ICEs is expected to continue, impacting new car margins negatively [2][12] After-Sales Performance - After-sales performance is diverging among dealers, with Zhongsheng achieving a 9% increase in after-sales revenue in 2024, while Yongda's growth remained flat [3][19] - Zhongsheng's centralized repair facilities are a key factor in its ability to capture after-sales market share [3][20] Store Openings and Growth - Zhongsheng has opened 33 Huawei AITO stores, contributing to a 9% increase in earnings, while Yongda has opened 11 Huawei stores and plans to expand further [4][31] - Xiaomi store openings are expected to bring additional earnings, with estimates of Rmb10-15 million net profit per store for Yongda [25][31] Valuation and Market Position - Zhongsheng and Meidong are trading below their 5-year historical average P/E ratios, while Yongda is above average [26][32] - The report suggests that Zhongsheng's after-sales business and new car sales from Huawei stores will drive recovery in earnings from the 2024 trough [5][35]