Wall Street spent 2025 worshiping algorithms. Early 2026 belongs to oilfield steel. While Big Tech has stalled, the energy complex is sprinting toward its eighth straight green week — a streak not seen in nearly two years.Sector Scoreboard (YTD As Of Feb. 9)Why Drillers Are WinningThis rally isn't about memes or models — it's about contracts. SLB's recent wave of international project awards, longer-cycle offshore work, and higher-margin digital completions have reignited confidence that service providers a ...

Core Viewpoint - US small- and mid-cap stocks are favored ahead of midterm elections as larger technology stocks lose appeal due to President Trump's interventions aimed at reducing costs in various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are shifting away from technology stocks due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence, leading to a focus on trades benefiting from the Trump administration's cost-lowering efforts [4]. - The Nasdaq 100 experienced its largest three-day drop since April, declining by 4.6%, while the S&P 500 has underperformed its equal-weighted counterpart by 4.2 percentage points since the beginning of the year [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The transition from asset-light to asset-heavy business models indicates a significant threat to the market dominance of the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks [5]. - AI capital expenditure from major technology firms is projected to reach approximately $670 billion, representing 96% of their cash flows this year, a stark increase from 40% in 2023 [5].

“My understanding is that [the FTC] really wants to make it more of a level position between standard acquisitions and the so-called [reverse-]acquihires,” says Igor Letina, associate professor at the University of Bern, Switzerland, speaking in an academic capacity. (Letina is also a vice president of the Swiss Competition Commission.) “What they’re signaling is that they will examine both types of deals in the same way according to the same standard, and make sure that they are compliant with antitrust la ...

The Big Tech selloff on Thursday is spooking investors and dragging down Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, analysts say. Bitcoin’s price has tanked by over 6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Optimistic traders hoping for a bounce have been wiped out, with $1.6 billion in long positions liquidated, Coinglass data shows. “Concerns around heavy AI investment by big tech, without the corresponding earnings to justify the spend, appear to be unsettling broader risk assets,” Matt Howells-Ba ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's growth stagnation may allow competitors like Microsoft, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Broadcom to surpass it in market value over the next five years [1][2]. Group 1: Apple’s Current Position - Apple is currently valued at $3.6 trillion but is experiencing slower revenue growth at 10% year-over-year, relying on past performance rather than innovation [4]. - The company has not launched any significant new products recently, which raises concerns about its ability to maintain market share against more innovative competitors [4]. Group 2: Competitors' Potential - Microsoft, with a market cap of $3.4 trillion, and Amazon, valued at $2.5 trillion, are positioned to potentially surpass Apple due to their faster growth rates [7]. - Microsoft has benefited from the generative AI trend through its Azure cloud service, achieving mid- to high-double-digit EPS growth, which could propel it past Apple [8]. - Amazon's growth is driven by higher-margin divisions, and despite a slowdown in the third quarter, its operating income is expected to grow rapidly, allowing it to surpass Apple within five years [11]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Growth - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for a 25% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2029, which could triple its revenue and potentially surpass Apple [13]. - Broadcom is also well-positioned with its custom AI accelerator chips, expecting 100% year-over-year growth for these products, and could surpass Apple if it matches the projected growth in global data center capital expenditures [15][16].

Core Insights - Several nuclear energy stocks experienced significant gains due to new agreements with Meta Platforms [1][3] Group 1: Agreements and Partnerships - Meta Platforms has reached agreements with nuclear energy provider Vistra Corp, startup Oklo, and TerraPower, backed by Bill Gates [2] - The Vistra deal will supply power from its currently operating reactors, while Oklo and TerraPower will assist in building smaller nuclear reactors expected to be operational between 2030 and 2035 [2] Group 2: Power Capacity and Financial Impact - Meta anticipates adding 6.6 gigawatts of power capacity to its data center network by 2035, although financial terms of the agreements were not disclosed [3] - Shares of Vistra and Oklo surged nearly 14% following the announcement, with other nuclear stocks like NuScale Power, Constellation Energy, and Nano Nuclear Energy also seeing gains [3] Group 3: Industry Implications - The agreements reflect a trend among Big Tech companies to secure clean energy sources to meet the high power demands of AI data centers, which can increase local electricity costs [4] - Analysts from Wedbush noted that this development is incrementally positive for the nuclear energy industry, emphasizing the commitment from major tech firms to leverage new energy sources [5]

Group 1 - Bank of America recommends clients allocate up to 4% of their portfolios in cryptocurrency following significant price fluctuations in Bitcoin [1][2] - Bitcoin experienced a decline from a $126,000 all-time high in October to lows near $82,000 in November, stabilizing around $90,000 by December 2 [1] - The firm plans to begin coverage of four Bitcoin ETFs in 2026, highlighting its extensive client base and digital user engagement [3] Group 2 - Corporate demand for cryptocurrencies increased in the last week of November, with crypto ETPs recording $1.07 billion in inflows, driven by expectations of a US rate cut [4] - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP saw significant inflows of $464 million, $309 million, and a record $289 million, respectively [4] - Despite volatility, Strategy's shares rebounded after a slump, and Michael Saylor confirmed the purchase of an additional 130 BTC, raising total holdings to 650,000 BTC [5] Group 3 - JPMorgan's portfolio manager noted a divergence between Bitcoin's negative performance in November and Gold's rally above $4,000, indicating potential market risk [6] - This divergence may suggest investors are positioning for a steeper yield curve, which historically benefits gold [7] - Signs of economic strength were observed in big tech stocks and pharmaceutical firms, indicating resilience in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Retail investors are preparing for a week of corporate earnings reports from discount retailers, cybersecurity firms, and major tech companies, with a focus on specific earnings expectations and stock movements [1]. Earnings Reports Schedule - **Monday, Dec. 1**: MongoDB Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) and Credo Technology Group (NASDAQ:CRDO) will report after market close [2]. - **Tuesday, Dec. 2**: Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) is expected to report earnings of 94 cents per share and revenue of $1.21 billion after market close [2]. - **Wednesday, Dec. 3**: Macy's Inc. (NYSE:M) and Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) will report before market open, while Salesforce Inc. (NYSE:CRM) is anticipated to report earnings of $2.86 per share and revenue of $10.27 billion after market close [3][4]. - **Thursday, Dec. 4**: Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR), Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG), and UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ:TIGR) will report before market open, followed by Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) expected to report earnings of $4.59 per share and revenue of $2.27 billion after market close [5][6]. - **Friday, Dec. 5**: Victoria's Secret & Co. (NYSE:VSCO) will report before market open, with over 20% of shares currently sold short, indicating potential stock movement [6]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Multiple analysts have raised price targets for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) ahead of its earnings report, with DA Davidson raising the target from $515 to $580, Keybanc from $510 to $570, and JP Morgan from $500 to $580 [4].

Market Sentiment and Concentration Risk - Investors may be blindsided by concentrated market positions, where a small number of stocks dominate returns, leading to potential volatility in the S&P 500 [2][5] - The top 10 stocks, primarily mega-cap AI companies, account for 41% of the S&P 500's market share and have driven over 70% of this year's returns [5][6] - The equal-weighted S&P is only up about 6% year-to-date, contrasting with the cap-weighted index's nearly 16% increase, indicating that the average stock is underperforming [6] AI Adoption and Valuation - A recent Morgan Stanley note indicates that 24% of early AI adopters report benefits from AI, up from 15% a quarter ago, suggesting growing efficiency gains [7] - The adoption of AI may justify elevated valuations for certain stocks, as companies experience margin benefits and potential reductions in headcount [8] Market Momentum and Sector Performance - The dollar has increased over 3% since its low on September 17, indicating a shift in market sentiment [10] - Healthcare is currently a leading sector in Q3, with a focus on quality companies that have strong balance sheets and consistent earnings [12][13] Specific Company Insights - Merck's stock has declined nearly a third since last July, primarily due to concerns over the loss of exclusivity for its drug Kitruda in 2028, which generates about half of its revenue [14] - Merck offers a nearly 4% dividend yield, with consistent growth over the past decade, and when including buybacks, the total shareholder yield approaches 8% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Lina Khan as co-chair of New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's transition team raises concerns about the potential negative impact on the city's business environment, particularly for Big Tech companies [2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Big Tech - Lina Khan, known for her aggressive stance against large corporations, has previously targeted major tech firms like Meta and Amazon with lawsuits, alleging monopolistic practices [5][6]. - New York City currently hosts significant employment from Big Tech, with 14,000 workers at Google's Hudson Square campus and thousands at Meta and Amazon, contributing substantially to the city's tax revenue [4]. - Concerns are growing that if the regulatory environment becomes hostile, Big Tech may relocate to more business-friendly cities, which could weaken New York's tax base and hinder its growth as a tech hub [12]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Khan's regulatory approach has faced criticism for prioritizing ideological goals over sound enforcement, leading to a culture of fear within the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [9][10]. - The New York State legislature retains control over tax increases, limiting Mamdani's direct influence, but the city administration can still affect businesses through procurement contracts, zoning, and regulatory standards [14]. - The perception of New York City as unfriendly to business could deter talent and investment, as tech workers have the flexibility to choose where to live and work [15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Mamdani's full transition plan is expected to be released by December, leaving the tech community in a state of uncertainty regarding future policies and their implications for business operations [16].