专业度提升：五年以上经验分析师占比突破54% 人均报告产出8.42个 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月23日电 银行间市场交易商协会与中国证券业协会23日发布的2025年第三季度信用评 级行业运行数据显示，在债券市场评级覆盖率稳步提升的背景下，评级机构间的评级一致性整体保持稳 定。截至9月末，在银行间和交易所同时获得多家评级的758家发行人中，仅45家出现评级结果不一致， 不一致率为5.94%，且差异均仅限于1个子级，未出现大幅分歧，反映出行业评级标准趋向收敛。 业务趋势：债券评级承揽量环比增长超一成 主体评级承接更趋审慎 2025年第三季度，15家信用评级机构共承揽债券产品3553只，环比增长11.00%；而主体评级承揽量为 3505家，环比下降10.24%，呈现出"债多体少"的结构性特征。业务集中度依然显著，前三家机构业务量 合计占比近七成。 评级调整幅度与频率进一步趋于平缓。三季度全行业仅对31家发行人进行评级调整，同比减少 36.73%。其中正面调整23家，负面调整7家，上调与下调幅度均控制在1-2个子级。在更换评级机构的 219家发行人中，仅19家在新机构获得更高级别，上调率8.68%，环比微降0 ...

This story was originally published on Banking Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Banking Dive newsletter. Artificial intelligence-powered credit ratings firm AIR has raised $6.1 million to invest in engineering for its eponymous automated credit intelligence platform, the firm said Wednesday. Veterans of Moody’s, DataRobot and Goldman Sachs built AIR to allow any company’s financial health, whether public or private, to be evaluated every day, helping banks and private ...

Core Insights - S&P Global has successfully completed the acquisition of ORBCOMM's Automatic Identification System (AIS) business, which enhances its maritime analytics and global trade intelligence offerings, supporting its global supply chain strategy [1][3] - The AIS business is recognized as a leading provider of satellite data services for tracking and monitoring vessels, which will be integrated into S&P Global Market Intelligence [1][3] - A strategic alliance framework has been established between S&P Global and ORBCOMM to develop a diverse range of supply chain data and insights, reinforcing S&P Global's commitment to investment in the maritime sector [2] Company Overview - S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence, enabling governments, businesses, and individuals to make informed decisions through data and technology [7] - The company is widely sought after for its credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions across global capital, commodity, and automotive markets [9] Acquisition Details - The acquisition agreement was initially announced in April 2025, and S&P Global does not anticipate a material financial impact from this transaction on its overall operations [3] - The AIS business will enhance S&P Global's existing maritime, risk, and trade solutions, further solidifying its position in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The SEC is actively investigating Egan-Jones Ratings for potential improper influence on its rating procedures, reflecting a heightened regulatory scrutiny in the private credit market [2][4]. Company Overview - Egan-Jones Ratings Co. operates from a modest location and has established itself as a significant player in the private credit ratings market, rating over 3,000 private credit investments last year with a small team of about 20 analysts [4][9]. - The firm is recognized as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization, allowing its ratings to be utilized by US insurers for regulatory capital calculations [6]. Industry Context - The private credit market is rapidly expanding, with approximately one-third of the $6 trillion in cash and invested assets held by US life insurers allocated to private credit investments [7]. - The role of smaller rating agencies like Egan-Jones has come under scrutiny, as their ratings are increasingly relied upon by insurers, raising concerns about the quality and potential for inflated assessments of creditworthiness [10]. Regulatory Environment - The SEC's investigation into Egan-Jones began during the Biden administration and is part of a broader effort to ensure integrity in the ratings process, especially as the private credit market grows [4][5]. - The SEC has not yet accused Egan-Jones or its executives of any wrongdoing, indicating that the investigation is still ongoing and its outcomes remain uncertain [4].

Core Viewpoint - KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to eight classes of notes issued by Pagaya AI Debt Grantor Trust 2025-R3 and Pagaya AI Debt Trust 2025-R3, indicating a structured approach to evaluating the creditworthiness of this unsecured consumer loan ABS transaction [1] Summary by Categories - **Credit Enhancement Levels** - The initial hard credit enhancement levels range from 48.05% for Class A Notes to 7.50% for Class E Notes, showcasing a significant level of protection for investors [1] - **Components of Credit Enhancement** - Credit enhancement is comprised of overcollateralization, subordination (except for Class E Notes), and a cash reserve account funded at a certain level, which collectively aim to mitigate risks associated with the ABS transaction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has maintained France's credit rating but revised its outlook from stable to negative, reflecting concerns over political instability and fiscal challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Credit Rating and Outlook - Moody's decision to maintain France's rating while downgrading the outlook indicates a cautious approach, allowing time to assess the government's actions [2][11]. - The negative outlook aligns with concerns raised by other agencies regarding political instability and its impact on fiscal policy [3][11]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - France faces an elevated fiscal deficit, projected to be 5.8% in 2024, with expectations of a slight decline to 5.4% [14]. - The government's recent decision to suspend pension reforms to gain political support will incur costs of €400 million in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027, necessitating discussions on tax increases [5][4]. Group 3: Wealth Tax Debate - The proposal for a wealth tax, particularly the Zukman tax, has sparked significant political debate, with suggestions to tax fortunes above €100 million at a minimum of 2% [6][15]. - The socialist party is advocating for a modified wealth tax targeting individuals with fortunes exceeding €10 million, proposing a 3% tax with exemptions for innovative and family-owned businesses [7][17]. - The ongoing discussions around the wealth tax are critical for the government's stability, with potential implications for fiscal consolidation and economic investment [9][18].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has placed France's credit rating on watch for a potential downgrade due to political instability and economic challenges, following similar actions by other rating agencies [3][4][5]. Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Moody's changed its outlook on French government bonds from Stable to Negative, currently rating them Aa3, equivalent to AA- [3]. - S&P downgraded French bonds to A+ from AA- on October 17, 2025, marking a significant shift in the perception of France's creditworthiness [3][4]. - Fitch Ratings had previously downgraded France to A+ from AA- in September, citing government fragmentation and political deadlock [4]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The political instability in France is seen as a barrier to addressing key policy challenges, including a high fiscal deficit, rising debt burden, and increasing borrowing costs [5]. - France's attempts to reform its pension system and reduce its deficit below 5% of GDP have been unsuccessful, leading to a lack of agreement on the budget [6]. - The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu after just one month in office highlights the ongoing governance issues [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The yield on France's 10-year bonds has increased from 3.186% at the end of 2024 to 3.436%, surpassing yields of Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain [7]. - Despite the political chaos, French stocks have shown resilience, with the iShares MSCI France ETF gaining 26%, outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise [8].

Core Insights - Moody's reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.92 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.70, with a year-over-year growth of 22.1% [1][8] - The revenue for the quarter was $2.01 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.96 billion, and reflecting a 10.7% increase year over year [3][8] - The company's liquidity position remained strong, although operating expenses increased, presenting a challenge [1][3] Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Moody's was $646 million or $3.60 per share, up from $534 million or $2.93 per share in the prior-year quarter [2] - Total expenses rose to $1.09 billion, an increase of 1.4% year over year [3] - Adjusted operating income was $1.06 billion, marking a 22.5% increase year over year, with an adjusted operating margin of 52.9%, up from 47.8% a year ago [3] Segment Performance - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) revenues increased by 11.8% year over year to $1.10 billion, driven by strong performance across various finance sectors [4] - Moody's Analytics (MA) revenues rose 9.4% year over year to $909 million, supported by growth in Decision Solutions, Research and Insights, and Data & Information [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, Moody's had total cash and short-term investments of $2.26 billion, down from $2.97 billion at the end of 2024 [5] - The company reported $7 billion in outstanding debt and $1.25 billion in additional borrowing capacity [5] Share Repurchase Program - In the quarter, Moody's repurchased 1 million shares at an average price of $503.66, with $398 million of share repurchase authorization remaining [6] - The board authorized an additional $4 billion in share repurchase authority with no expiration date [6] Updated Guidance - Moody's updated its 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings of $14.50-$14.75 per share, up from the previous target of $13.50-$14.00 [9] - Revenue growth is projected in the high-single-digit percent range, an increase from the prior mid-single-digit range [9] - The adjusted operating margin is expected to be 51%, up from the previously mentioned 49-50% [10] Strategic Developments - Moody's announced plans to secure majority equity ownership in MERIS, enhancing its presence in the Middle East and Africa [12]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility, with gold dipping below $4,100 an ounce after a more than 5% drop on Tuesday, marking the sharpest pullback in over five years [1][2] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking and a general market correction after a strong performance, with no clear catalyst identified for the drop [1][2] - Analysts noted that gold was "massively overbought," indicating a potential for further market corrections in other sectors as well [2] Group 2: Global Equity and Bond Markets - European stocks, represented by the STOXX 600 index, fell by 0.3% after nearing a record high, while major Asian markets also showed declines [2] - Despite the selloff in gold, other safe-haven assets like bonds remained stable, with European government debt yields largely unchanged [3][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields reached a one-year closing low, influencing global borrowing costs and prompting investors to buy UK 'gilts' following steady inflation data [4][5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with uncertainty surrounding planned summits between U.S. President Trump and leaders from Russia and China [3] - The ambiguity in international relations is contributing to market volatility, although it has not significantly impacted safe-haven assets like bonds [3] Group 4: Economic Stimulus in Japan - Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is expected to exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen ($92.19 billion) to assist households with inflation [6]

Core Investment Strategy - The wide moat strategy focuses on investing in companies with durable competitive advantages that ensure long-term profitability and market leadership, allowing them to withstand economic fluctuations [1][2] Company Summaries Moody's Corp. (MCO) - Moody's maintains a dominant position in the credit rating industry, supported by strategic acquisitions and a strong balance sheet, which are expected to drive top-line expansion [6][10] - The company has a projected revenue growth rate of 8.2% and an earnings growth rate of 15.7% for the current quarter, with a recent improvement in earnings estimates by 0.3% [9][10] Stryker Corp. (SYK) - Stryker is experiencing robust growth due to its diversified business segments and innovation in medical technologies, leading to an increase in full-year organic growth guidance to 9.5–10% [11][12] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current quarter are 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 1.6% [12] CBRE Group Inc. (CBRE) - CBRE is well-positioned with a diverse range of real estate products and services, benefiting from a resilient business model and healthy outsourcing growth [13][14] - The company anticipates total revenue growth of 11.1% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, with expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 9.8% and 15.1% for the current quarter [14][15]