Core Viewpoint - The French government is considering a 2% wealth tax on individuals with assets exceeding 100 million euros to reduce the fiscal deficit, which has sparked controversy in the country [1] Group 1: Wealth Tax Proposal - The proposed wealth tax would apply to individuals holding assets of at least 100 million euros (approximately 840 million RMB) annually [1] - If implemented, the tax is expected to affect 1,800 households and generate approximately 20 billion euros (around 16.79 billion RMB) in annual revenue for the French government [1] Group 2: Reactions and Support - Bernard Arnault, the chairman of LVMH and France's richest person, criticized the proposal, claiming it reflects a desire to destroy the French economy [1] - The proposal has strong support from the left-wing parties in France, who view it as a crucial lever for improving the fiscal deficit [1] - The Socialist Party has urged the new Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, to include the wealth tax in the 2026 budget, threatening a vote of no confidence against the new government if it is not included [1]

Core Points - The current wealth tax proposal in France is primarily politically motivated, aiming to address widespread anxiety over wealth distribution in society [1] - The wealth tax debate has resurfaced as a central political issue in France, with significant public demonstrations against government austerity measures [3][4] - The proposed "Zucman tax" targets individuals with net assets exceeding €100 million, suggesting a minimum tax rate of 2%, potentially generating between €10 billion to €25 billion in revenue [1][3] - The wealthiest 75 families in France pay an effective tax rate that is only half of the next income tier, indicating a regressive tax system [5] - Critics warn that the wealth tax could lead to capital flight, as seen in previous attempts to tax the wealthy [5][6] Industry Insights - The wealth tax proposal has been met with strong opposition from business leaders, who argue it could undermine economic freedom and discourage investment [6] - The debate reflects broader economic dissatisfaction among the French populace, particularly in the context of rising inflation and stagnant economic reforms [4][7] - There is a call for a shift in focus from wealth redistribution to expanding the overall economic "cake," emphasizing the need for growth in sectors like digitalization and green energy [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 23, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Gold and silver futures are likely to reach new highs [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 23, 2025, index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4518 and 4545 points and support levels at 4455 and 4444 points [2][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to oscillate widely on September 23, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and reach new highs. For instance, the gold futures contract AU2512 will attack resistance levels at 855.0 and 860.0 yuan/gram, and the silver futures contract AG2512 will attack resistance levels at 10400 and 10500 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while aluminum and alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3][4][6]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **International Relations**: Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the two sides are communicating [7]. - **Economic Data**: China's 1 - year LPR in September was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year and above variety was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Some analysts believe that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Financial Market**: As of the end of June, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market sizes ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve size ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On September 22, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 2.03% to 3781.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.17% to 44.32 US dollars/ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: On September 22, international oil prices oscillated narrowly. The main contract of US crude oil fell 0.10% to 62.34 US dollars/barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.05% to 66.01 US dollars/barrel [11]. - **Base Metals**: On September 22, London base metals showed mixed results. LME zinc rose 0.38%, LME lead rose 0.15%, LME copper rose 0.13%, while LME tin fell 0.44%, LME nickel fell 0.46%, and LME aluminum fell 0.62% [11]. - **Exchange Rates**: On September 22, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1148 at 16:30, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1138 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1106, up 22 basis points from the previous trading day [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 22, index futures generally showed a small - scale upward trend. For example, the main contract IF2512 of CSI 300 index futures rose 0.30% (0.44% based on the closing price) [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 22, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.20%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [36]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures continued to rise and reached new highs. For example, the gold futures contract AU2512 reached a new high of 851.98 yuan/gram during the night trading on September 23 [45]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures showed a small - scale upward trend, while aluminum and alumina futures showed a downward trend on September 22 [59][63]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed different degrees of decline on September 22 [70][71][80].

Group 1 - The French government is considering a 2% wealth tax on individuals with assets exceeding 100 million euros to reduce the fiscal deficit [1][3] - The proposed tax has been criticized by Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH, who labeled the economist Gabriel Zucman as a "pseudo-scholar" aiming to "destroy the French economy" [1][3] - The tax plan, referred to as the "Zucman tax," is facing opposition from right-wing politicians who fear it may lead to wealthy individuals leaving France [3] Group 2 - Bernard Arnault's current personal wealth is reported to be 157 billion dollars, and he oversees brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Moët Hennessy under LVMH [4] - The previous French Prime Minister, Édouard Philippe, proposed a budget plan to cut public spending by 43.8 billion euros, which faced widespread public opposition [4] - Following a failed confidence vote regarding fiscal policy, the former Prime Minister resigned, and Sébastien Lecornu was appointed as the new Prime Minister [4]

Group 1 - The French government is considering a 2% wealth tax on individuals with assets exceeding 100 million euros to reduce the fiscal deficit, referred to as the "Zucman tax" by the media [1][3] - Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH and France's richest person, criticized the proposal, labeling economist Gabriel Zucman as a "pseudo-scholar" aiming to "destroy the French economy" [1][3] - The proposed tax has faced opposition from right-wing politicians who fear it may lead to wealthy individuals leaving France [3] Group 2 - Arnault's current personal wealth is reported to be $157 billion, according to Forbes [4] - The previous French Prime Minister, Édouard Philippe, announced a budget plan to cut public spending by 43.8 billion euros, which included controversial measures such as changing public holidays to workdays [4] - Following a failed confidence vote regarding fiscal policies, the former Prime Minister resigned, and Sébastien Lecornu was appointed as the new Prime Minister [4]

Group 1 - The French government is considering a 2% wealth tax on individuals with assets exceeding 100 million euros to reduce the fiscal deficit, which could generate approximately 20 billion euros annually for the French treasury [1] - The proposed tax, referred to as the "Zuckman tax," has faced criticism from right-wing figures who fear it may drive wealthy individuals out of France [1] - Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH and France's richest person, criticized the tax proposal, labeling its proponent, economist Gabriel Zuckman, as a "pseudo-scholar" aiming to "destroy the French economy" [1] Group 2 - In July, the former French Prime Minister Borne announced a budget draft for 2026, aiming to cut public spending by 43.8 billion euros, which included controversial measures such as converting two public holidays into working days [2] - The budget draft faced widespread public opposition, leading to Borne's resignation after losing a confidence vote in the National Assembly regarding fiscal policies [2] - Following Borne's resignation, Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu was appointed as the new Prime Minister [2]

Core Viewpoint - The French government has announced a fiscal budget plan for 2026 aimed at alleviating high debt levels and restoring public finance stability over four years, which includes mechanisms to limit tax optimization strategies for wealthy individuals [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Measures - The budget plan includes approximately €43.8 billion (about $50.88 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the largest budget deficit in the Eurozone [3]. - Measures to save the budget include freezing certain government expenditures, reducing the number of civil servants, cutting social benefits, and imposing temporary taxes on high-income earners [3][4]. - The government plans to increase revenue by closing tax loopholes rather than directly raising tax rates, while also not reinstating the wealth tax abolished in 2017 [3][5]. Group 2: Taxation on Wealthy Individuals - Individuals earning over €250,000 may face higher tax rates if the new budget plan is approved, with the Prime Minister emphasizing a fair contribution from high earners [4]. - The proposed "solidarity tax" aims to ensure that the wealthiest individuals contribute more, targeting non-productive assets that are minimally taxed [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Context and Challenges - France's public spending accounts for 57% of GDP, which is 7 percentage points higher than Germany, complicating the budget cut efforts [5]. - The fiscal plan faces significant political and economic resistance, with opposition parties threatening votes of no confidence and unions planning protests [6][7]. - The current economic growth in France is expected to lag behind the Eurozone average, with uncertainty in tax policies undermining confidence among businesses and households [6][9]. Group 4: Debt and Deficit Projections - France's deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, with public debt reaching 114% of GDP by the first quarter of 2025 [9][10]. - Moody's forecasts that the deficit will rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2025 before potentially decreasing to 5.2% by 2027, while public debt may increase to around 120% of GDP by 2027 [9][10]. - Concerns over France's ability to control its budget deficit are growing, impacting investor confidence in the Euro [10].

Core Viewpoint - The British pound shows resilience despite underlying economic concerns in the UK [1] Economic Challenges - The UK economy faces numerous risks, which continue to exert pressure on the pound [1] - Prime Minister Starmer's refusal to rule out the possibility of a future wealth tax did not trigger a sell-off of the pound, unlike previous instances [1] - The government's economic challenges remain unchanged, indicating that the pound will continue to face downward pressure [1]

Group 1 - Oxfam's analysis reveals that the wealth of the top 10 richest individuals in the U.S. increased by $365 billion over the past year, equating to approximately $1 billion per day [1] - Elon Musk accounted for more than half of this wealth increase, with a net worth surge of $186.1 billion from April 2024 to April 2025 [1] - The wealth of other notable billionaires, such as Mark Zuckerberg and Rob Walton, also saw significant increases, while some, like Larry Page and Sergey Brin, experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Oxfam criticizes Trump's high-cost legislation, suggesting it favors the wealthy and exacerbates inequality, with calls for a wealth tax on billionaires [2] - A proposed 3% tax on wealth exceeding $1 billion could generate $50 billion from the top 10 billionaires, enough to provide food assistance for 22.5 million people for a year [2] Group 3 - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is projected to increase resources for American households, but the benefits are unevenly distributed, with the lowest 10% expected to see a 4% decrease in resources by 2033 [3] - The top 10% of households will gain approximately 65% of the total benefits from this legislation, while the lowest 20% may lose around $1,035 by 2026 due to policy adjustments [3] Group 4 - The White House claims that Trump's budget priorities will promote prosperity and continue the successes of his first term, including historic tax cuts [4] - Concerns about the U.S. national debt, which stands at $36 trillion, are rising amid discussions of high-cost tax legislation [4] Group 5 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA, citing concerns over rising government debt and high interest payments [5] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the proposed legislation could increase national debt by $3.8 trillion, potentially exacerbating inflation and raising interest rates [5]