The continued fall of the U.S. dollar comes after a 12-month period ending in December when consumer prices rose 2.7% (7). Food prices, in particular, outpaced that average, rising 3.1%.“Markets are reopening the question of whether the US is asking investors to accept a lower standard of stability, and therefore demanding a higher price for bearing U.S. risk.”“When the person who could jawbone to defend the currency sounds unconcerned, the perceived backstop under the dollar gets thinner,” Doyle said in a ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese equity market, particularly the performance of China A and H shares in 2025, and the implications for investors in 2026 and beyond. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Positive Market Returns**: China A and H shares returned 16% and 29% in 2025, exceeding forecasts of 13% and 15% respectively, marking a rebound of 30% and 75% from their cycle troughs in late 2022 [4][3]. 2. **Sector Performance**: Materials, Health Care, and Communication Services outperformed, while Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate lagged. Growth and GARP styles performed better than Value and Dividend styles, indicating sectoral and thematic alpha opportunities [5][3]. 3. **Future Projections**: A forecast of a 38% rise in Chinese stocks by the end of 2027 is anticipated, driven by profit growth of 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, alongside a potential 10% re-rating [6][3]. 4. **Trade Outcomes vs. Policy Miss**: Better-than-expected trade outcomes have outweighed fiscal policy misses, with Chinese exports growing 5.4% year-over-year despite increased US tariffs [13][14]. 5. **AI Impact on Tech Equities**: The launch of AI technologies, particularly DeepSeek-R1, has significantly boosted Chinese tech stocks, with an average price increase of 40% and an estimated $2 trillion added to market capitalization [23][24]. 6. **Consumer Spending Trends**: While overall retail sales grew only 4% year-over-year, new consumption sectors such as entertainment and specialty retail saw net profits grow by 28% in the first half of 2025, outperforming traditional consumer sectors [43][45]. 7. **Inflation and Profit Growth**: A potential rise in inflation could lead to profit growth in certain sectors, with estimates suggesting a 50% profit increase in involuted industries by 2027 [54][55]. 8. **5-Year Plan Influence**: The 15th 5-Year Plan emphasizes technology and security, which may redefine investment strategies in Chinese equities [65][66]. 9. **Investment Sentiment**: Domestic capital is increasingly moving into equities, with significant inflows recorded in 2025, while foreign investors are also warming up to Chinese stocks [73][74]. 10. **Risks and Policy Support**: Despite lingering risks such as global recession and US-China tensions, the policy environment has shifted to be more pro-growth, which may help mitigate downside risks in the equity market [88][89]. Additional Important Insights - **Diversification Value**: China's market offers diversification benefits for global investors, with lower return correlations with US equities and significant valuation discounts compared to developed markets [78][79]. - **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence remains low, impacting overall consumption, but specific sectors are thriving, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [43][46]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The easing of regulations and a pro-market policy stance are expected to support equity market growth moving forward [95][96]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese equity market.

Core Points - A coalition of over 700 small and medium-sized businesses has filed a brief against President Trump's tariffs, highlighting the negative economic impacts on American companies [2][3] - The coalition equates the current tariff challenges to the Covid-19 crisis, referring to it as a "Trademic" that threatens the survival of small and micro businesses [4] - The IEEPA Tariffs are described as imposed without legal authority and public participation, posing an existential threat to American businesses [4][5] Economic Impact - The coalition's brief includes testimonials from businesses reporting significant financial losses due to the tariffs, leading to job cuts, higher prices, and stalled expansion [3] - The tariffs are said to jeopardize the role of American businesses in the global supply chain, affecting importers, manufacturers, and exporters [5] Case Study - Deer Stags Concepts, Inc., a small footwear business, reported operational disruptions due to tariff increases on products sourced from China, leading to halted shipments and significant lost sales [6][7]