Core Insights - J&T reported strong operating data for 2Q25, with parcel volume increasing by an average of 24% YoY, primarily driven by a remarkable 66% YoY growth in the Southeast Asia (SEA) market [1][2] - The earnings forecast for 2025E/26E has been revised, with an increase of 18% for 2025E and a slight decrease of 2% for 2026E, reflecting an upward adjustment in parcel volume forecasts despite a minor reduction in pricing assumptions [1] - The target price (TP) has been raised to HK$10 from HK$6.9, indicating a positive outlook for J&T in the Hong Kong market due to its market share gains in the SEA region [1] Southeast Asia Market - The SEA volume surged by 66% YoY to 1.69 billion units, with growth accelerating from 50% in 1Q25, benefiting from strong sales growth from platforms like Temu, Shein, and TikTok [2] - Management believes that J&T has further strengthened its competitive advantage over major peers in terms of parcel volume growth in the SEA market [2] China Market - In China, parcel volume grew by 15% YoY to 5.6 billion units, although the growth rate slowed from 27% in 1Q24 [3] - The largest customer in China is PDD, followed by Douyin and Alibaba, with reverse parcels and individual orders accounting for 7% of total volume [3] - Management expressed a conservative outlook due to uncertainties from intense price competition [3] New Markets - New markets experienced a 24% YoY increase in volume to 89 million units, driven by growth in the Brazilian market [4] - J&T has initiated cooperation with Mercado Libre this year, and the entry of more e-commerce platforms into Brazil presents additional growth opportunities [4]

July 10, 2025 06:18 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific Supply-Side Reform Returns... But This Time It's More Complicated China's capacity consolidation campaign may be returning – but we see this as new wine in an old bottle. The industrial landscape and macro environment are fundamentally more difficult than in 2015-18, meaning implementation will likely be slower. We maintain a persistent deflation baseline into 2026. 1. Introduction: "anti-involution" returns In recent years, the concept of "involution" ...

ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 2 July 2025 China Logistics Sector APAC Focus: Parcel pricing near bottom, prefer smaller players on vol. and margin expansion Investors are increasingly concerned about the pricing dynamics in China's parcel industry. However, we believe price competition will largely stabilise, supported by UBS Evidence Lab survey (> Access Dataset) and our supply-demand analysis. We expect ZTO, YTO, STO, Yunda and J&T (Tongda) in aggregate to deliver a 2024-27E earnings ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dazhu District of Chongqing has emerged as a leading example in the city's "Postal Transport" pilot program, showcasing effective integration of transportation and postal services to boost rural e-commerce and support the rural revitalization strategy [1] Group 1: E-commerce Empowerment - Dazhu District has rich agricultural products, but previously faced limited sales channels. The district has developed a rural e-commerce model through its e-commerce industrial park, which has been operational since 2017 [2] - As of 2024, the e-commerce industrial park has 147 resident enterprises and 279 registered companies, with 645 merchants conducting transactions on the Dazhu Cloud Smart Market. The total e-commerce transaction volume reached 6.279 billion yuan, with online retail sales of 3.212 billion yuan [2] - The district has utilized live streaming as a marketing tool, with 335,300 live broadcasts generating sales of 970 million yuan. This has significantly increased the visibility and sales of local products [4] Group 2: Logistics Solutions - Dazhu District has addressed logistics challenges by integrating transportation and postal resources, creating an efficient rural logistics network. The China Post Dazhu Branch has upgraded logistics facilities to enhance service delivery [5] - The district has implemented a "passenger and cargo postal" model, allowing passenger transport vehicles to also serve as delivery vehicles, thus improving logistics efficiency [5][7] Group 3: Integration and Development - The "Postal Transport + Rural E-commerce" model has significantly reduced delivery costs and improved logistics efficiency. Delivery costs for agricultural products have decreased from 12 yuan to 5 yuan within the district, and from 12 yuan to 8 yuan citywide, representing reductions of 58% and 33% respectively [8] - The development of e-commerce has created job opportunities in rural areas, with 619 individuals trained in e-commerce skills in 2024 alone [8] - Dazhu District has developed a comprehensive logistics management system and is promoting digital integration across transportation, commerce, and postal services, enhancing service efficiency for residents [8] Group 4: Economic Impact - The rural economy in Dazhu District has seen significant growth, with express delivery volume reaching approximately 26.727 million packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%. The online retail sales of agricultural products reached 620 million yuan [9] - The district's case study on rural e-commerce development has been recognized as a typical case for high-quality rural logistics development by the Ministry of Transport and the State Post Bureau [9]

About this content About Angela Harmantas Angela Harmantas is an Editor at Proactive. She has over 15 years of experience covering the equity markets in North America, with a particular focus on junior resource stocks. Angela has reported from numerous countries around the world, including Canada, the US, Australia, Brazil, Ghana, and South Africa for leading trade publications. Previously, she worked in investor relations and led the foreign direct investment program in Canada for the Swedish government ...

Core Viewpoint - Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx, emphasized the importance of free trade as a means for the U.S. to achieve wealth while allowing global prosperity, criticizing the neglect of U.S. industry in favor of financial and tech sectors [1] Group 1 - Smith's belief that free trade has made the U.S. the only global power to get rich while enabling global prosperity [1] - Criticism of U.S. administrations for prioritizing financial and tech sectors over industrial growth, leading to increased populism [1] - The perception of global trade as a villain due to the neglect of U.S. industry [1]

4 June 2025 | 7:59PM HKT China Logistics Intense price competition to further weigh on express profitability; Buy integrated players SF/JDL & leader ZTO Our China express delivery coverage concluded 1Q25 results with better-than-expected volumes yet widened year-on-year declines in economy parcel ASPs, leading to group GP/EBIT yoy declines for most franchise-based express delivery names, while integrated full-service logistics service providers delivered relative earnings strength/resilience (SF 1Q EBIT +20 ...

Core Insights - ZTO Express reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of 37 cents per share, matching the previous year's quarter, while total revenues of $1.50 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67 billion but showed year-over-year improvement [1] Financial Performance - The core express delivery business revenue increased by 9.8% year over year, driven by a 19.1% growth in parcel volume, despite a 7.8% decrease in parcel unit price [3] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $2.3 billion, with retail volume increasing by 46% year over year [2] - Gross profit decreased by 10.4% from the year-ago quarter, with gross margin falling to 24.7% from 30.1% [4] Operational Highlights - ZTO achieved a parcel volume of 8.5 billion during the first quarter [2] - KA revenues, generated by direct sales organizations, surged by 129.3%, attributed to an increase in e-commerce return parcels [3] - Revenue from freight forwarding services declined by 11.6% year over year due to falling cross-border e-commerce pricing [3] Cash and Share Repurchase Program - As of the end of the first quarter, ZTO had cash and cash equivalents of $1.71 billion, down from $1.84 billion at the end of the previous quarter [5] - The board approved an increase in the share repurchase program to $2 billion, extending the effective period through June 30, 2025 [5][6] Guidance - ZTO reaffirms its 2025 parcel volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 20-24% [7]

21 May 2025 | 11:18PM HKT Ronald Keung, CFA ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO): TechNet China 2025 Key Takeaways: Solid share gain in reverse parcels; competition remains intense; Buy Bottom Line: We hosted ZTO Express' CFO Huiping Yan on May 21st at GS TechNet China in Shanghai. Key investor focuses/topics discussed include: 1) Competitive landscape in express delivery industry: the company notes intensifying price competition and higher mix of low-weight small parcels weigh on industry-wide ASP. ZTO continue ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 20, with earnings expected to be flat at 47 cents per share and revenues projected to rise by 21% year over year to $1.67 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - High operating expenses are anticipated to negatively impact the company's bottom-line performance, although top-line growth is expected to be driven by strong parcel volumes [2] - ZTO Express has updated its 2025 parcel volume guidance to a range of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20-24% [3] - The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is expected to influence the results for the upcoming quarter [3][4] Group 2: Previous Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2024, ZTO Express reported mixed results, with earnings of 44 cents per share falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents, while total revenues of $1.77 billion exceeded the estimate of $1.65 billion [7]