Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has shown a nearly 50% increase over the past year, but it remains 65% below its all-time high from October 2020, indicating potential for future growth despite challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In fiscal 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 19%, but growth slowed to 2% in fiscal 2023, 8% in fiscal 2024, and is projected at 6% for fiscal 2025, primarily due to regulatory and macroeconomic challenges [2][4][5]. - Analysts expect Alibaba's revenue to rise by 7% in fiscal 2026 and by 8% in fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS growth projected at 8% and 14% respectively [10]. Challenges Faced - Alibaba faced significant regulatory challenges, including fines and restrictions from China's antitrust regulators, which limited its competitive strategies [4]. - The Chinese economy's slowdown, exacerbated by "zero-COVID" policies and a weak real estate market, negatively impacted consumer spending and cloud customer expenditures [5]. - Leadership changes, including the departure of CEO Daniel Zhang in 2023, raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory [6]. Business Stabilization - Despite challenges, Alibaba's retail business saw growth in overseas markets, which helped offset weaker performance in its domestic marketplaces [7]. - The company implemented cost-cutting measures, share buybacks, and increased revenue from higher-margin cloud and AI businesses, leading to improved earnings per share [8]. Future Outlook - Alibaba's stock trades at 11 times its forward adjusted earnings, with potential for a higher valuation if trade tensions ease, possibly rising to about $167 by fiscal 2027 [12]. - The company may integrate its various business units more closely, enhancing its competitive position against less diversified rivals [11].

Global Research ab 9 July 2025 First Read Alibaba Group 1QFY26 preview; Stepping up quick commerce investments 1QFY26 preview We estimate revenue +1% YoY to Rmb246bn for 1QFY26, dragged by the deconsolidation of 1P offline retail assets (SunArt and InTime), which used to account for HSD% of group revenue. By segment: 1) Taobao Tmall Group (TTG) and local services: We expect GMV to +5% YoY (slightly lower than NBS online physical goods retail sales +7% YoY for Apr-May). CMR should grow faster at +11% YoY, th ...

July 9, 2025 12:10 PM GMT Alibaba Group Holding | Asia Pacific 1QF26 Preview: Earnings Pressure with Heightened Investments | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N) | From | To | | Price Target | US$180.00 | US$150.00 | With estimate ~Rmb10bn in instant commerce investments and expect consolidated EBITA to fall 16% YoY (TTG + local services EBITA -20%) in F1Q with investments potentially peaking (~Rmb20bn) in F2Q. We forecast cloud revenue growth at 22% YoY. Reiterate OW a ...

Alibaba - Alibaba is a leading e-commerce and cloud service company facing competition and regulatory challenges in China, but it has strong demand in its cloud business [3][5] - The average analyst's 12-month price target for Alibaba is $162, indicating a 39% upside from the current share price, with a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.7 [4][7] - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew 18% year over year, and the company is leveraging AI for personalized user experiences and supply chain management [5][6] - Analysts project Alibaba's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 16% over the next several years, suggesting potential for the stock to double in value within three to five years [7] Lyft - Lyft's stock has decreased nearly 80% since its 2019 IPO, but the company is now showing solid growth and profitability [8][9] - A Wall Street analyst has set a 12-month price target of $28 for Lyft, indicating an 80% upside potential [9] - In Q1, Lyft's revenue rose 14% to $1.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled from $59.4 million to $106.5 million [10] - Lyft has introduced new features and made strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Freenow to expand into Europe [11][12] - The stock is considered cheap with a price-to-sales ratio of around 1.1, and the company is expected to continue double-digit growth [12] RH - RH, a luxury furniture retailer, is recovering from macroeconomic pressures and is expected to see stock price increases [13][14] - The company operates around 100 galleries and is expanding into Europe, with strong performance in its U.K. gallery, where sales increased by 47% [16] - RH has reported year-over-year revenue increases for the past four quarters, with a 12% sales increase in the latest fiscal first quarter [17] - The average target price for RH is 24% higher than its current price, with one analyst predicting a 137% increase over the next 12 to 18 months [17][18] - RH is trading at a valuation of 13 times forward 1-year earnings, making it an attractive option for risk-tolerant investors [18]

Group 1: E-commerce Performance - Alibaba's e-commerce business remains its strongest asset, with Taobao and Tmall driving a 12% year-over-year growth in customer management revenues in Q4 of fiscal 2025, aided by improved take rates [1] - In the fiscal fourth quarter, Taobao and Tmall Group generated RMB 93.2 billion ($12.9 billion) in revenues, a 4% increase year-over-year, accounting for 47% of total company revenues [4] - International commerce, including AliExpress and Lazada, saw revenues of RMB 27.4 billion ($3.8 billion), up 45% year-over-year, with AliExpress alone growing by 22% [4] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Alibaba is integrating its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel services platform Fliggy with its core e-commerce business to enhance resource alignment and delivery network strength [3] - The company is focusing on improving consumption quality through better monetization tools and AI-driven search and recommendations, aiming for growth in both China and globally [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba faces increasing competition from domestic rivals JD.com and PDD Holdings, both of which are expanding rapidly in China's digital retail market [5] - JD.com reported a 16.3% year-over-year growth in retail revenues in Q1 2025, driven by strong category execution and ecosystem integration [6] - PDD Holdings experienced a 15% year-over-year increase in online marketing services revenues in Q1 2025, supported by enhanced tools for merchant performance [7] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Alibaba's shares have increased by 34.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry growth of 5.7% and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector's growth of 2.8% [8] - The forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio for BABA stock is 10.39X, significantly lower than the industry's 24.70X, indicating a favorable valuation [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings is $2.48 per share, reflecting a 9.73% year-over-year growth, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $10.47 per share, indicating a 16.2% year-over-year growth [13]

直到6月2 0 日，今年6 18 大促，才算某种程度上的结束。 回顾本次618，之于消费者而言，"迷失"是一种强感受，阵线又双叒叕被拉长的一届，其设置复杂性和节点多样性让不少消费者迷惑该何时点开 APP 才能 买的最便宜；之于平台策略而言，以外卖、闪购为主的即时零售成为了最火热的战场，以至美团不得不出手防御，直接宣布"美团也有618了"来应对京东 和淘宝的纠缠。 电商平台618活动 从5月6日李佳琦淘宝直播间预热小课堂开始，到6月1 9 日，京东首页已经进入"6 18 限时返场"活动，这场进一步被拉长的年中大促阵线，又涵盖了母亲 节、5 20 、端午节、儿童节、父亲节、毕业季等多个重要节点，其竞争的激烈性可想而知，为此，淘宝天猫、京东和美团三家使出千方百计争夺用户流量 和注意力， 娱乐营销在这届618再上一层级。 无论是长视频的开屏广告、核心广告位，以及大促期间的热播剧集综艺冠名赞助，还是各路明星的深度绑定、定制化晚会不缺席，甚至是短剧营销的投 入，电商玩家们都卯足了劲，各自割据，又卷起差异化打法，也因此， 卷生卷死之下，今年的娱乐营销之战在常规稳定输出之余，明星名字的谐音梗创 作成为了今年的破圈所在。 大鹏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Both Alibaba and Amazon are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance growth in their cloud computing and e-commerce sectors, with Alibaba focusing on a turnaround strategy and Amazon emphasizing operational efficiency [1]. Alibaba - Alibaba is investing heavily in its core e-commerce platforms, Tmall and Taobao, to boost gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth, resulting in a 9% year-over-year increase in e-commerce revenue and a 12% rise in third-party revenue [3]. - The Cloud Intelligence segment of Alibaba saw an 18% year-over-year revenue increase, with AI-related revenue more than doubling for the seventh consecutive quarter, and adjusted EBITA surged by 69% [4]. - Alibaba's AI initiatives are driven by its Qwen series of models, including the latest Qwen3, which combines traditional large language model capabilities with advanced reasoning [5]. - The international commerce segment (AIDC), which includes AliExpress and Trendyol, grew revenue by 22% last quarter, with expectations of profitability within the next year [6]. - Alibaba's stock trades at approximately 12 times forward earnings, with nearly $20 billion in net cash and $57 billion in equity investments, indicating significant upside potential if sentiment around Chinese equities improves [7]. Amazon - Amazon is characterized by relentless operational execution, with its market cap at $2 trillion, continuously finding ways to increase revenue and margins [8]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains a key growth driver, with revenue increasing by 17% year-over-year to $29.3 billion, and operating income growing by 23%, largely due to AI demand [9]. - AI is being integrated across Amazon's ecosystem, enhancing efficiencies in warehouses, logistics, and e-commerce, leading to improved operating leverage [10][11]. - Amazon's North American revenue rose 8% in Q1, with operating income increasing by 16%, indicating strong performance as AI initiatives are still in early stages [11]. - Amazon trades at a forward P/E of 34.5 times, which is significantly higher than Alibaba's valuation [11]. Investment Perspective - Alibaba presents more potential upside due to its successful turnaround in e-commerce, leadership in AI within China, and growth prospects in the AIDC business, all while trading at a discount to Amazon [12]. - Amazon is viewed as the safer investment option, with a proven track record of operational success and willingness to invest for long-term gains, despite facing typical retail risks [13]. - For investors seeking higher potential returns, Alibaba is recommended, while Amazon offers a more stable risk-reward profile [14].

June 9, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Advertising Unfolding AI Proficiency Strengthens Top Online Players Our AlphaWise Survey showed slight recovery in advertiser expectations in 2025. We lift our 2025 growth forecast from 8.6% to 11.4% yoy. In this report, we explore: 1) secular trends on the demand side, 2) key share gainers and losers, and 3) AI improvements. Key OWs: Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan. M We conducted our 5th China Advertiser AlphaWise Survey in March 2025, where we polled 102 chief marketing officers ...

Alibaba Group 2025 AIC: Growth intact despite near-term margin volatilities Cloud: an accelerating growth trajectory Growth outlook: Management remains constructive on cloud outlook and is confident in an accelerating topline growth over next few quarters. This also echoes with the increased inferencing demand post DeepSeek launch. Growth is expected to be broad- based across verticals, with the increasing adoption in new verticals such as the conventional industries an encouraging sign. Margin outlook: Emp ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Group (BABA) and JD.com (JD) are major players in China's e-commerce sector, each contributing significantly to the digital economy [1][2] - Investors are closely monitoring which platform will deliver stronger and more sustainable growth as China's economy stabilizes [2] Alibaba Group (BABA) - BABA reported revenues of $32.81 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 6.96% [3] - The company has expanded its loyalty program, 88VIP, to over 50 million members, enhancing user retention [4] - International commerce segment revenues grew by 22% year-over-year, aided by localized supply chains and improved unit economics [5] - Alibaba Cloud revenues increased by 18%, with AI product revenues experiencing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] - A RMB 10 billion investment in instant commerce initiatives has shown promising early results in user engagement [7] JD.com (JD) - JD reported revenues of $41.79 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 16.01% [8] - The company has seen a 20% year-over-year increase in active customers, driven by enhanced shopping frequency and personalized services [9] - JD's 3P marketplace has expanded, resulting in a 16% year-over-year growth in marketing and marketplace revenues [10] - The food delivery segment is growing, with nearly 20 million daily orders and a strategy of onboarding merchants at zero commission [11] - JD Logistics contributed to an 11% revenue growth, with gross profit rising by 20% and non-GAAP net income increasing by 43% year-over-year [12] Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, BABA shares have increased by 42.4%, while JD shares have decreased by 3.8% [13] - BABA's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 11.13X, compared to JD's 7.63X, indicating higher investor confidence in BABA's growth potential [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BABA's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings is $2.48 per share, a 9.73% year-over-year increase, while JD's Q2 2025 earnings estimate indicates a 24.81% decline [20][21] Conclusion - BABA is positioned as a more attractive investment option due to its strong momentum in cloud, AI, and international e-commerce, alongside a balanced business model [22] - JD is facing challenges in profitability due to aggressive investments and losses in new business segments [22]