BUY Ronald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 | ronald.keung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Steve Qiu 26 November 2025 | 4:25AM HKT Equity Research Alibaba Group (BABA) 2QFY26 review: Cloud/CapEx beat reinforces the AI-driven narrative despite slower eCommerce; Buy | BABA | 12m Price Target: $197.00 | Price: $160.73 | Upside: 22.6% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9988.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$192.00 | Price: HK$157.80 | Upside: 21.7% | Alibaba reported a solid beat in cloud growth (+34% yoy) and AI capex intensit ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Group has entered an investment phase focusing on AI technologies and infrastructure, leading to strong growth in its AI + Cloud and consumption businesses, with Cloud Intelligence Group revenue up 34% and AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the ninth consecutive quarter [2][3] Financial Performance - For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB247,795 million (US$34,808 million), a 5% year-over-year increase, with a like-for-like growth of 15% excluding disposed businesses [4][23] - Income from operations decreased by 85% year-over-year to RMB5,365 million (US$754 million), primarily due to a significant drop in adjusted EBITA, which fell 78% to RMB9,073 million (US$1,274 million) [4][51] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB20,990 million (US$2,948 million), a 52% decrease year-over-year, while non-GAAP net income dropped 72% to RMB10,352 million (US$1,454 million) [4][59] - Diluted earnings per ADS were RMB8.75 (US$1.23), down 52% year-over-year, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS at RMB4.36 (US$0.61), a 71% decrease [4][61] Segment Performance - Alibaba China E-commerce Group revenue increased by 16% year-over-year to RMB132,578 million (US$18,623 million), with customer management revenue up 10% [27][31] - Quick commerce revenue surged 60% year-over-year to RMB22,906 million (US$3,217 million), driven by order growth from "Taobao Instant Commerce" [31][34] - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue grew 34% year-over-year to RMB39,824 million (US$5,594 million), with public cloud revenue growth attributed to the adoption of AI-related products [36][17] - The All Others segment saw a 25% revenue decline to RMB62,969 million (US$8,846 million), primarily due to the disposal of Sun Art and Intime businesses [38] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and operational efficiency in its quick commerce business, onboarding approximately 3,500 Tmall brands to improve product offerings [9] - Alibaba Cloud continues to lead the AI cloud market in China with a 35.8% market share, driven by comprehensive AI capabilities and strong customer adoption [19][17] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash provided by operating activities was RMB10,099 million (US$1,419 million), a 68% decrease year-over-year, while free cash flow was an outflow of RMB21,840 million (US$3,068 million) [64] - As of September 30, 2025, cash and other liquid investments totaled RMB573,889 million (US$80,614 million) [5]

Group 1 - The expansion of the AI market has led to significant increases in American tech stocks, pushing the S&P 500's valuations higher [1][2] - The S&P 500 is currently trading at 30 times earnings, well above its historical average of 20 times over the past two decades, indicating potential for a market correction [2] - Investors are advised to consider undervalued Chinese tech stocks instead of chasing high-flying U.S. tech stocks, as many Chinese companies continue to grow despite current market pressures [3] Group 2 - Alibaba, a leading Chinese e-commerce and cloud infrastructure company, has seen its stock rise approximately 80% this year but remains 50% below its all-time high, trading at 18 times next year's earnings [4][9] - The company faced significant challenges due to a crackdown by Chinese regulators in 2021, which included a record fine of $2.8 billion and restrictions on its business practices [6] - Despite a revenue growth of 19% in fiscal 2022, Alibaba's revenue growth slowed to just 2% in fiscal 2023, leading to concerns about its growth potential [8]

Coatue Management's billionaire boss is making eyebrow-raising moves in the AI arena.In case you missed it, one of the most important data releases of the entire fourth quarter occurred on Friday, Nov. 14.While you might have been eager to clock out or start your weekend early, institutional investors with at least $100 million in assets under management (AUM) were filing Form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This required filing, due no later than Nov. 14, concisely lays out which stocks, e ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's E-commerce Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the e-commerce sector in China, particularly focusing on the Singles' Day shopping festival and its implications for online retail growth and consumer behavior. Key Highlights from Singles' Day Festival 1. **GMV Growth and Parcel Volume**: - Estimated gross merchandise value (GMV) growth of approximately 10% during the Singles' Day festival period from November 1 to November 11, with parcel volume growth of about 9% year-over-year (yoy) [2][8][36]. - The growth rate for parcel volume has moderated compared to the previous year, which saw a 21% increase [2]. 2. **Impact of National Subsidies**: - The fourth batch of national subsidies, totaling RMB 69 billion, was rolled out on October 1, contributing to the overall GMV growth [8][13]. - The subsidies are expected to have a diminishing impact in 4Q25 due to a high base effect from the previous year [13]. 3. **Performance of Major E-commerce Players**: - Alibaba (BABA) reported an 8% growth in GMV, while JD.com (JD) saw a 7% increase in GMV and a 40% increase in active buyers [16]. - Pinduoduo (PDD) emphasized its everyday low price strategy, achieving a 12% GMV growth during the festival [16]. 4. **Shift to Online Services**: - Online services GMV grew by 27% in October, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards services rather than goods [1]. 5. **AI Integration in E-commerce**: - Significant adoption of AI tools by major platforms, with Alibaba rolling out six AI tools that improved click-through rates (CTR) by 10% and merchant return on investment (ROI) by 12% [10]. Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: - There is a noted decline in home appliance sales, down 15% yoy, while communication devices saw a robust growth of 23% yoy [1][54]. - The overall retail sales growth was 2.9% yoy in October, aligning with expectations [1]. - **Quick Commerce Growth**: - Quick commerce GMV increased by 138.4% yoy, with platforms like Meituan and JD seeing substantial growth in their respective categories [12]. - **Market Competition**: - The competition in the quick commerce sector is intensifying, with expectations of a fragmented long-term landscape as companies focus on improving unit economics [12]. - **Sustainability of Growth**: - Concerns regarding the sustainability of national trade-in subsidies and their impact on appliance sales moving forward [13]. Conclusion - The e-commerce sector in China is experiencing a normalization in growth rates post-Singles' Day, with significant shifts towards online services and AI integration. The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with major players adapting their strategies to maintain market share amidst changing consumer preferences and regulatory pressures.

Core Insights - Alibaba and Baidu are leading players in China's tech sector, with Alibaba focusing on e-commerce and cloud services, while Baidu specializes in online search and video streaming [1][2] Company Overview - Alibaba's revenue primarily comes from its online marketplaces, Taobao and Tmall, with a smaller portion from its cloud business, which has lower margins [3] - Baidu generates most of its revenue from online advertising, including search and video ads, with a growing but still minor contribution from its AI Cloud platform [7] Market Challenges - Alibaba faces regulatory challenges and competition from smaller e-commerce rivals due to antitrust regulations that limit its business practices [4] - Baidu is under pressure from competitors like Tencent's WeChat and ByteDance's Douyin, which are attracting younger users and diversifying their services [8] Growth Prospects - Analysts project Alibaba's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% and 12%, respectively, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, driven by AI enhancements and logistics improvements [11] - In contrast, Baidu's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of only 3% from 2024 to 2027, with EPS projected to decline at a negative CAGR of 5% due to unprofitable service expansions [13] Investment Outlook - Alibaba is viewed as a better investment opportunity compared to Baidu, as its strategy appears more sustainable despite both companies sacrificing near-term margins for long-term growth [14][15] - Alibaba's valuation is considered reasonable at 20 times next year's earnings, while Baidu's stock does not seem like a bargain at 19 times next year's earnings [12][13]

Group 1 - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) is highlighted as a must-buy US stock, with a focus on its partnership with Arteris Inc. to enhance RISC-V system-on-chip designs for various applications including edge AI and automotive technology [1] - Mizuho analysts have raised Alibaba's price target to $195, citing strong growth in summer-quarter deliveries and increased demand in e-commerce, driven by incentives [2] - Alibaba's Quark unit has launched "Plan C," a new conversational AI initiative aimed at competing with ByteDance's Doubao chatbot, which has 157 million active users, indicating Alibaba's commitment to the AI sector [3] Group 2 - Alibaba operates in multiple segments including e-commerce through platforms like Taobao and Tmall, B2B wholesale marketplaces, cloud computing, digital media, and logistics services via Cainiao [4]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has experienced significant growth but is highly valued, while Alibaba, despite slower growth, presents a more sustainable valuation opportunity in the current market environment [1][6]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir's annual revenue increased from $1.1 billion in 2020 to $2.9 billion in 2024, achieving profitability in 2023 and more than doubling its net income in 2024 [2]. - Analysts project Palantir's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a CAGR of 38% and 63%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027 [3]. - The growth is supported by increased government contracts and the expansion of its commercial business, with geopolitical factors favoring its Gotham platform and rising demand for its Foundry services [4]. - Palantir's current market cap is $423 billion, trading at over 300 times next year's earnings and 75 times next year's sales, indicating a potential market cap reduction to $227 billion if valuations normalize [5]. Alibaba Group - Alibaba, the largest e-commerce and cloud infrastructure company in China, trades nearly 50% below its all-time high due to regulatory fines, COVID-19 lockdowns, and U.S.-China trade tensions [7][8]. - The company is stabilizing its business by expanding into higher-growth overseas markets and enhancing its logistics platform [9]. - Alibaba's cloud infrastructure is benefiting from the rollout of its large language models (LLMs) and increased spending on cloud services driven by the AI boom [10]. - From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, Alibaba's revenue and EPS are expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% and 12%, respectively, while trading at just 19 times next year's earnings and 2.3 times next year's sales [11][12]. - If Alibaba meets analysts' expectations and achieves a valuation of four times its forward sales, its market cap could nearly double to $710 billion, potentially surpassing Palantir's market cap [13].

Summary of the Conference Call on China's E-commerce Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese e-commerce industry, particularly the performance during the Singles' Day shopping festival and overall online retail growth. - September national online retail goods GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) growth was sustained at +7% year-over-year (YoY), matching August's performance, and concluding 3Q25 at +8% YoY growth, an acceleration from +6% YoY in 2Q25 [1][34][45]. Key Observations from Singles' Day Shopping Festival 1. **Extended Shopping Festival Period**: The Singles' Day shopping festival has been extended, with major platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin starting promotions earlier than last year. This is expected to lead to healthy retail data in October, although November may see muted growth due to front-loaded demand and high base effects from last year [2][26]. 2. **AI Tool Proliferation**: There has been a significant rollout of AI tools across platforms. Alibaba introduced six AI tools that improved click-through rates (CTR) by +10% and merchant ROI by +12%. AI customer service has been adopted by 1.58 million merchants, leading to an average daily cost reduction of RMB 20 million [3][7]. 3. **Initial Sales Performance**: Initial sales figures were strong, with Alibaba reporting that 35 brands exceeded RMB 100 million in sales within the first hour of pre-sale. Douyin saw an 800% YoY increase in brands achieving RMB 100 million+ sales on day one [8]. 4. **National Trade-in Subsidies**: A new batch of national trade-in subsidies worth RMB 69 billion was announced, which is lower than the previous year's subsidies. This is expected to moderate online appliance sales in 4Q25, as last year's growth was exceptionally high [9]. 5. **Competition in Quick Commerce**: The competition in quick commerce remains intense, with Alibaba maintaining a healthy average daily order volume of 80 million. Meituan announced a RMB 2 billion investment to support merchants, indicating ongoing competitive dynamics in the sector [10][12]. Additional Insights - **Retail Sales Performance**: Overall retail sales in September grew by 3.0% YoY, with online retail goods sales at +7.3% YoY. The growth in consumer durables and discretionary categories showed mixed results, with home appliances growing at a slower pace [38][39]. - **Parcel Volume Trends**: The average daily parcel volume in October showed a growth rate of approximately 0% YoY, indicating a slowdown compared to previous months. This is attributed to higher average selling prices and reduced order volumes [15][36]. - **E-commerce Engagement**: E-commerce app engagement remained healthy, with JD and Taobao showing strong growth in user engagement, likely driven by food delivery and instant commerce initiatives [15]. Stock Implications - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as games, mobility, and cloud/data centers as top investment opportunities. Specific stock ideas include PDD in e-commerce and major players like Tencent and JD in their respective sectors [14][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Chinese e-commerce sector, highlighting growth trends, competitive dynamics, and strategic insights for investors.

Core Insights - Alibaba Group's AI spending in core eCommerce operations has reached a break-even point, indicating measurable returns from large-scale AI investments [1][4] - The company reported a 12% increase in return on advertising spend across Taobao and Tmall, attributed to enhanced ad matching, dynamic pricing, and personalized recommendations [2][4] - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan (approximately $53 billion) over the next three years, focusing on algorithms, data centers, and AI-driven commerce infrastructure [3] Industry Context - The announcement comes amid skepticism in the industry regarding the financial returns of AI spending, with Alibaba providing one of the first quantifiable examples of AI generating operating gains [4] - Other major retailers, such as Walmart and Target, are also integrating AI into their operations, with Walmart piloting "AI super agents" and Target using predictive analytics for inventory management [5][6] - Alibaba's AI initiatives align with broader trends in the retail sector, where companies are increasingly linking automation with profitability metrics, potentially influencing how CFOs assess success [6]