13 October 2025 | 12:39AM HKT Equity Research Alibaba Group (BABA) Reframing the bull/bear narratives; laying out AI cloud capex-to-revenue framework; Buy | BABA | 12m Price Target: $205.00 | Price: $159.01 | Upside: 28.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9988.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$199.00 | Price: HK$165.40 | Upside: 20.3% | We reframe the bull/bear narratives following Alibaba's share price outperformance (ADRs YTD at +87% vs. HSTECH +44%), yet with a double-digit % retreat from peaks recently on profit t ...

Alibaba Group Holding BABA.N BABA US EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA 2Q26FY Preview: a mixed bag Cloud and ecommerce remains on track; QC loss likely peaked in the September quarter; maintain Buy 2Q earnings likely lower due to AI and LLM investment while revenue likely in line Alibaba's (BABA) September quarter (2Q) results are likely to be a mixed bag – we forecast in-line consolidated revenue growth of 4% y-y to CNY246bn, while consolidated adjusted EBITA likely dropped 83% to CNY6.7bn due to a significant ...

Global Research ab 8 October 2025 First Read 1) Cloud outlook: Near term, market attention would remain on the pace of AliCloud's topline growth and capex expansion. We believe its revenue growth should be largely on track (FY26F's +28%). In our view, its capex is also likely to remain high amid mgmt plans to increase investments beyond its 3-year Rmb380bn target, but could see quarterly fluctuations depending on supply chain situation and delivery cycles. 2) Quick commerce competition: Post peak summer hol ...

Summary of Alibaba Group Holding Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group Holding - **Ticker**: BABA (US), 9988.HK (HK) - **Market Cap**: US$432.3 billion / HK$3.39 trillion Key Industry Insights - **E-commerce and Cloud Services**: The company is focusing on aggressive subsidies in its Shangou business, which is impacting its financials but is expected to lead to a rebound in future quarters as demand for AI cloud services increases. Core Financial Insights - **FY2Q26 Revenue and Profit Estimates**: - Total consolidated revenues are projected at **Rmb242.8 billion**, reflecting a **2.7% YoY increase** [3] - Non-GAAP net profit is estimated at **Rmb9.05 billion**, with a **3.7% margin**, significantly lower than previous estimates [3][57] - China E-commerce Group revenues are expected to be **Rmb126.6 billion**, with a **10.2% YoY growth** in CMR [3][52] - Cloud revenues are projected to grow by **28% YoY** to **Rmb37.9 billion** [3] - **Revisions in Estimates**: - Adjustments made to reflect aggressive subsidies and increased costs associated with AI model upgrades [2][57] - For FY2Q26, revenue estimates were revised up by **0.5%**, while non-GAAP profit estimates were revised down by **59%** [57] - For FY26-28E, total revenues and non-GAAP net profits were adjusted by **+0.4%/-10.9%**, **+0.7%/-5.7%**, and **+0.8%/-12.3%** respectively [57] Strategic Initiatives - **Double 11 Promotions**: Tmall's presale for the Double 11 shopping festival is set to begin on **October 15th**, aiming to enhance consumer experience through a comprehensive shopping approach [10] - **Taobao Global Initiatives**: Investment of **Rmb1 billion** in marketing to boost overseas user growth during Double 11, with cross-border free shipping and returns [11] - **Amap Local Services**: Amap's AI agent has surpassed **400 million MAU**, enhancing user engagement with local services [43] Cloud and AI Developments - **AliCloud Partnerships**: Collaborations with SAP and Xpeng to enhance cloud solutions and security capabilities [46] - **Product Launches**: Introduction of new AI-native products and upgrades to existing services, including a new server operating system and database technology [48] Market Position and Future Outlook - **Target Prices**: Slight adjustments to target prices, now set at **US$218** and **HK$216** [1] - **Investment Rating**: Maintained a "Buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges [1] Additional Insights - **User Growth Metrics**: Taobao's MAU showed a consistent upward trend, with a peak growth of **12% YoY** in August [20] - **Online Retail Sales**: YTD online sales reached **Rmb9.98 trillion**, reflecting a **9.6% YoY growth** [27] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Alibaba's current financial status, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

October 8, 2025 11:51 AM GMT Alibaba Group Holding | Asia Pacific CMR growth to remain robust at 10% YoY: According to NBS, online retail sales of goods rose 7.7% YoY in July-August (vs. 6.3% in 2Q25). While the benefit from software service fees introduced last September is fading, we expect continued improvement in take-rate, supported by rising adoption of Quanzhantui and incremental CMR contribution from quick commerce (QC) initiatives. These investments have driven a 25% increase in Taobao's MAU. Conso ...

Key Takeaways JD Retail gained strong momentum in the second quarter of 2025, validating its execution-driven strategy.JD Retail revenues rose 21% year over year in the second quarter of 2025 to RMB 310.1 billion ($43.3 billion).JD is leveraging logistics and direct sourcing to meet rising consumer demand efficiently.JD.com (JD) is reinforcing its leadership in China’s e-commerce market through a vertically integrated, supply chain-driven model that combines retail, logistics and marketplace services. JD Re ...

Key Points AI tailwinds helped drive Alibaba stock higher. Founder Jack Ma returned to the company. Alibaba announced a new partnership with Nvidia. 10 stocks we like better than Alibaba Group › Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) was among the winners last night as the Chinese tech giant continued to benefit from investments in artificial intelligence, as investors increasingly see it as a winner in AI. Additionally, Founder Jack Ma has returned to the company's headquarters, showing relations between him and ...

Group 1 - Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, is experiencing a positive year, with expectations to outperform the market in 2025, although not yet at her peak 2020 performance [1] - Ark Invest has been actively buying shares, including Alibaba, Intellia Therapeutics, and Baidu, indicating a strategic focus on high-stakes biotech and leading Chinese tech companies [2][7] Group 2 - Alibaba's stock has more than doubled this year, increasing by 112%, despite facing slowing growth with quarterly revenue gains in the single digits [3] - The company is the second largest by market cap on U.S. exchanges and is currently valued at 21 times trailing earnings, suggesting it remains reasonably priced [4] - Alibaba's domestic e-commerce business contributes significantly to its earnings, accounting for less than half of its revenue but 113% of its consolidated adjusted EBITDA, highlighting its strong cash flow despite losses in other segments [5] - The ongoing trade war may be benefiting Alibaba, as its e-commerce operations continue to thrive while it invests in streaming services, cloud hosting, and AI chips [6]

Core Insights - Jefferies upgraded Alibaba's rating to "Buy" and raised the price target from $178 to $230, indicating increased confidence in the company's strategic direction and market potential [1][6] - Alibaba operates major e-commerce platforms in China and has a strong international presence, with its cloud unit holding over one-third of China's cloud services market [2] Financial Performance - Alibaba experienced a 10% organic revenue growth in the June quarter, while its stock surged by 44% over the past month and has more than doubled year to date, with a 110% increase [3][6] - The current stock price is $171.91, reflecting a decrease of 2.03% or $3.56, with a market capitalization of approximately $399 billion [5] Strategic Investments - The company's significant investments in artificial intelligence, amounting to at least $52 billion, are key drivers of its recent stock performance [3][6] - Alibaba's strong market position in cloud services and strategic moves into AI make it a compelling investment opportunity compared to competitors like CoreWeave [4][6]

J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Dear Baron International Growth Fund Shareholder: Baron International Growth Fund® (the Fund) gained 16.91% (Institutional Shares) during the second quarter of 2025, while its primary benchmark, the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (the Benchmark), appreciated 12.03%. The MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI Growth Index (the Proxy Benchmark) gained 14.41% for the quarter. The Fund solidly outperformed both the Benchmark and the Proxy Benchmark during a strong quarter for global equities ...