Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has shown a nearly 50% increase over the past year, but it remains 65% below its all-time high from October 2020, indicating potential for future growth despite challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In fiscal 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 19%, but growth slowed to 2% in fiscal 2023, 8% in fiscal 2024, and is projected at 6% for fiscal 2025, primarily due to regulatory and macroeconomic challenges [2][4][5]. - Analysts expect Alibaba's revenue to rise by 7% in fiscal 2026 and by 8% in fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS growth projected at 8% and 14% respectively [10]. Challenges Faced - Alibaba faced significant regulatory challenges, including fines and restrictions from China's antitrust regulators, which limited its competitive strategies [4]. - The Chinese economy's slowdown, exacerbated by "zero-COVID" policies and a weak real estate market, negatively impacted consumer spending and cloud customer expenditures [5]. - Leadership changes, including the departure of CEO Daniel Zhang in 2023, raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory [6]. Business Stabilization - Despite challenges, Alibaba's retail business saw growth in overseas markets, which helped offset weaker performance in its domestic marketplaces [7]. - The company implemented cost-cutting measures, share buybacks, and increased revenue from higher-margin cloud and AI businesses, leading to improved earnings per share [8]. Future Outlook - Alibaba's stock trades at 11 times its forward adjusted earnings, with potential for a higher valuation if trade tensions ease, possibly rising to about $167 by fiscal 2027 [12]. - The company may integrate its various business units more closely, enhancing its competitive position against less diversified rivals [11].

Global Research ab 9 July 2025 First Read Alibaba Group 1QFY26 preview; Stepping up quick commerce investments 1QFY26 preview We estimate revenue +1% YoY to Rmb246bn for 1QFY26, dragged by the deconsolidation of 1P offline retail assets (SunArt and InTime), which used to account for HSD% of group revenue. By segment: 1) Taobao Tmall Group (TTG) and local services: We expect GMV to +5% YoY (slightly lower than NBS online physical goods retail sales +7% YoY for Apr-May). CMR should grow faster at +11% YoY, th ...

July 9, 2025 12:10 PM GMT Alibaba Group Holding | Asia Pacific 1QF26 Preview: Earnings Pressure with Heightened Investments | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N) | From | To | | Price Target | US$180.00 | US$150.00 | With estimate ~Rmb10bn in instant commerce investments and expect consolidated EBITA to fall 16% YoY (TTG + local services EBITA -20%) in F1Q with investments potentially peaking (~Rmb20bn) in F2Q. We forecast cloud revenue growth at 22% YoY. Reiterate OW a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD, while highlighting JD as a potential multiple repair/re-rating story [14][15][18]. Core Insights - The competition intensity among eCommerce players, particularly Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, in food delivery and instant shopping has escalated, with an estimated aggregate investment of Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) in the June quarter alone [9]. - The report estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb2.4 trillion for food delivery and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and user acquisitions [4][40]. - The ultimate goal for these companies is to become the "everyday app" for transactions, facilitating cross-selling across various goods and services [12][56]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food delivery competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with Meituan achieving 90 million daily orders and Alibaba's Taobao Instant Commerce reaching 60 million peak daily orders [34]. - The report anticipates a re-acceleration of on-demand eCommerce penetration in China, projecting a TAM of Rmb1.5 trillion by 2030 [35][42]. Financial Projections - The report outlines three scenarios for food delivery and instant shopping, with a base case projecting a 5.5:3.5:1 market share between Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [10][27]. - Estimated losses for Alibaba and JD in food delivery are projected at Rmb-41 billion and Rmb-26 billion, respectively, over the next 12 months [9]. Company-Specific Insights - JD is expected to disproportionately benefit if it stabilizes its food delivery scale, while PDD is positioned to have a more resilient profit setup due to its lack of direct involvement in the food delivery competition [10][18]. - Meituan's strategic pivot towards centralized kitchens aims to enhance food safety and reduce delivery costs, which could improve long-term unit economics [11][54]. User Engagement and Traffic - The report notes a significant increase in daily active users (DAU) for both JD and Taobao, with a combined increase of 50 million DAU to approximately 410 million [12][56]. - The consolidation of offerings into a single app is seen as a strategy to monetize increased engagement from high-frequency food delivery [57].

Alibaba - Alibaba is a leading e-commerce and cloud service company facing competition and regulatory challenges in China, but it has strong demand in its cloud business [3][5] - The average analyst's 12-month price target for Alibaba is $162, indicating a 39% upside from the current share price, with a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.7 [4][7] - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew 18% year over year, and the company is leveraging AI for personalized user experiences and supply chain management [5][6] - Analysts project Alibaba's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 16% over the next several years, suggesting potential for the stock to double in value within three to five years [7] Lyft - Lyft's stock has decreased nearly 80% since its 2019 IPO, but the company is now showing solid growth and profitability [8][9] - A Wall Street analyst has set a 12-month price target of $28 for Lyft, indicating an 80% upside potential [9] - In Q1, Lyft's revenue rose 14% to $1.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled from $59.4 million to $106.5 million [10] - Lyft has introduced new features and made strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Freenow to expand into Europe [11][12] - The stock is considered cheap with a price-to-sales ratio of around 1.1, and the company is expected to continue double-digit growth [12] RH - RH, a luxury furniture retailer, is recovering from macroeconomic pressures and is expected to see stock price increases [13][14] - The company operates around 100 galleries and is expanding into Europe, with strong performance in its U.K. gallery, where sales increased by 47% [16] - RH has reported year-over-year revenue increases for the past four quarters, with a 12% sales increase in the latest fiscal first quarter [17] - The average target price for RH is 24% higher than its current price, with one analyst predicting a 137% increase over the next 12 to 18 months [17][18] - RH is trading at a valuation of 13 times forward 1-year earnings, making it an attractive option for risk-tolerant investors [18]

Group 1: E-commerce Performance - Alibaba's e-commerce business remains its strongest asset, with Taobao and Tmall driving a 12% year-over-year growth in customer management revenues in Q4 of fiscal 2025, aided by improved take rates [1] - In the fiscal fourth quarter, Taobao and Tmall Group generated RMB 93.2 billion ($12.9 billion) in revenues, a 4% increase year-over-year, accounting for 47% of total company revenues [4] - International commerce, including AliExpress and Lazada, saw revenues of RMB 27.4 billion ($3.8 billion), up 45% year-over-year, with AliExpress alone growing by 22% [4] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Alibaba is integrating its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel services platform Fliggy with its core e-commerce business to enhance resource alignment and delivery network strength [3] - The company is focusing on improving consumption quality through better monetization tools and AI-driven search and recommendations, aiming for growth in both China and globally [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba faces increasing competition from domestic rivals JD.com and PDD Holdings, both of which are expanding rapidly in China's digital retail market [5] - JD.com reported a 16.3% year-over-year growth in retail revenues in Q1 2025, driven by strong category execution and ecosystem integration [6] - PDD Holdings experienced a 15% year-over-year increase in online marketing services revenues in Q1 2025, supported by enhanced tools for merchant performance [7] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Alibaba's shares have increased by 34.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry growth of 5.7% and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector's growth of 2.8% [8] - The forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio for BABA stock is 10.39X, significantly lower than the industry's 24.70X, indicating a favorable valuation [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings is $2.48 per share, reflecting a 9.73% year-over-year growth, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $10.47 per share, indicating a 16.2% year-over-year growth [13]

直到6月2 0 日，今年6 18 大促，才算某种程度上的结束。 回顾本次618，之于消费者而言，"迷失"是一种强感受，阵线又双叒叕被拉长的一届，其设置复杂性和节点多样性让不少消费者迷惑该何时点开 APP 才能 买的最便宜；之于平台策略而言，以外卖、闪购为主的即时零售成为了最火热的战场，以至美团不得不出手防御，直接宣布"美团也有618了"来应对京东 和淘宝的纠缠。 电商平台618活动 从5月6日李佳琦淘宝直播间预热小课堂开始，到6月1 9 日，京东首页已经进入"6 18 限时返场"活动，这场进一步被拉长的年中大促阵线，又涵盖了母亲 节、5 20 、端午节、儿童节、父亲节、毕业季等多个重要节点，其竞争的激烈性可想而知，为此，淘宝天猫、京东和美团三家使出千方百计争夺用户流量 和注意力， 娱乐营销在这届618再上一层级。 无论是长视频的开屏广告、核心广告位，以及大促期间的热播剧集综艺冠名赞助，还是各路明星的深度绑定、定制化晚会不缺席，甚至是短剧营销的投 入，电商玩家们都卯足了劲，各自割据，又卷起差异化打法，也因此， 卷生卷死之下，今年的娱乐营销之战在常规稳定输出之余，明星名字的谐音梗创 作成为了今年的破圈所在。 大鹏 ...

China Internet & Restaurants: Food delivery expert session takeaways: Focusing on evolving competitive landscape and implications to unit As part of the expert channel-check calls arranged alongside China Consumer team's APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day, we hosted an expert session on food delivery with investors on June 11, where we invited Mr. Shi, CEO & Founder at Yuzhibo Information Technology. Key topics discussed include 1) Enlarged on-demand consumption market from recent platform subsidies, whe ...

Core Viewpoint - Both Alibaba and Amazon are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance growth in their cloud computing and e-commerce sectors, with Alibaba focusing on a turnaround strategy and Amazon emphasizing operational efficiency [1]. Alibaba - Alibaba is investing heavily in its core e-commerce platforms, Tmall and Taobao, to boost gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth, resulting in a 9% year-over-year increase in e-commerce revenue and a 12% rise in third-party revenue [3]. - The Cloud Intelligence segment of Alibaba saw an 18% year-over-year revenue increase, with AI-related revenue more than doubling for the seventh consecutive quarter, and adjusted EBITA surged by 69% [4]. - Alibaba's AI initiatives are driven by its Qwen series of models, including the latest Qwen3, which combines traditional large language model capabilities with advanced reasoning [5]. - The international commerce segment (AIDC), which includes AliExpress and Trendyol, grew revenue by 22% last quarter, with expectations of profitability within the next year [6]. - Alibaba's stock trades at approximately 12 times forward earnings, with nearly $20 billion in net cash and $57 billion in equity investments, indicating significant upside potential if sentiment around Chinese equities improves [7]. Amazon - Amazon is characterized by relentless operational execution, with its market cap at $2 trillion, continuously finding ways to increase revenue and margins [8]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains a key growth driver, with revenue increasing by 17% year-over-year to $29.3 billion, and operating income growing by 23%, largely due to AI demand [9]. - AI is being integrated across Amazon's ecosystem, enhancing efficiencies in warehouses, logistics, and e-commerce, leading to improved operating leverage [10][11]. - Amazon's North American revenue rose 8% in Q1, with operating income increasing by 16%, indicating strong performance as AI initiatives are still in early stages [11]. - Amazon trades at a forward P/E of 34.5 times, which is significantly higher than Alibaba's valuation [11]. Investment Perspective - Alibaba presents more potential upside due to its successful turnaround in e-commerce, leadership in AI within China, and growth prospects in the AIDC business, all while trading at a discount to Amazon [12]. - Amazon is viewed as the safer investment option, with a proven track record of operational success and willingness to invest for long-term gains, despite facing typical retail risks [13]. - For investors seeking higher potential returns, Alibaba is recommended, while Amazon offers a more stable risk-reward profile [14].

June 9, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Advertising Unfolding AI Proficiency Strengthens Top Online Players Our AlphaWise Survey showed slight recovery in advertiser expectations in 2025. We lift our 2025 growth forecast from 8.6% to 11.4% yoy. In this report, we explore: 1) secular trends on the demand side, 2) key share gainers and losers, and 3) AI improvements. Key OWs: Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan. M We conducted our 5th China Advertiser AlphaWise Survey in March 2025, where we polled 102 chief marketing officers ...