15 September 2025 | 12:36PM HKT China: August activity data below expectations, with investment especially weak Bottom line: China's activity data broadly weakened and missed market expectations in August (again). Industrial production (IP) growth declined on the back of weaker-than-expected exports, as slowing output growth in ferrous metal smelting, power generation and general equipment industries more than offset faster output growth in the non-ferrous smelting industry. Fixed asset investment (FAI) gro ...

China: CPI soft, anti-involution narrows PPI deflation But broad-based reflation will take time Headline CPI inflation was softer than expected, though core CPI ticked up. Headline CPI fell 0.4%oya or 0.03%m/m sa in August (J.P. Morgan and consensus: -0.2%oya). The main drag was from food prices, down 4.3%oya and 0.8%m/m sa, which reduced headline CPI's annual rate by 0.9%pt. Transportation and communication costs also dipped 0.1%m/m sa, including a 0.9%m/m nsa decline in vehicle fuel prices, reflecting low ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Core CPI showed a modest improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% and a month-on-month improvement to 1.2% SAAR, indicating a recovery since the policy pivot in September 2024 [2] - PPI deflation pressures continue, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% for three consecutive months, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [3] - Weak energy prices have significantly impacted both headline CPI and PPI over the past three months, while core prices remain resilient due to targeted policies [6] Summary by Sections Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, with food prices down by 0.4% and non-food prices stable at 0.0% [5] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was at 0.6%, reflecting a slight increase from previous months [5] Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI year-on-year was reported at -3.3%, with notable declines in producer goods (-4.0%) and mining and quarrying (-11.9%) [5] - Durable goods prices turned positive month-on-month, driven by the automotive sector, although this may not fully reflect recent price cuts [3][5] Key Drivers - The resilience in core prices is attributed to targeted policies such as the consumer goods trade-in program, while a supply-demand imbalance persists [6] - The renewed competition in the automotive sector may not have been adequately captured in the current readings, indicating potential volatility in future reports [6]